Thursday, September 30, 2010

SOLD CMIN $0.30

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This stock, Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN) was down some some 40% intraday yesterday and up 28% today.  I guess somebody is making money off all this manipulation, but it sure isn't me.  Today I sold an allotment of CMIN for $0.30.  The problem for me is that I have three other purchases of this dud, so I am challenged to figure how and when to best rid myself of their presence in my portfolio.
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It's possible that the shorts will keep covering tomorrow and continue to force the price higher.  If so, I will likely say bye-bye to one and maybe two allotments of this stuff - at a considerable loss.
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Gold was interesting today as we had a brief attempt to see how the $1300 level would hold.  The test lasted all of about 15 minutes and gold did hold.  As I believe we are just a few days into the next daily cycle, it is possible gold will continue to consolidate just above $1300 and it gets ready for the next semi-rocket launch. This is a great time to accumulate shares before that happens, in my opinion, that is.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

SOLD TLR $1.20 BOUGHT CDY $1.21

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One sale and one buy today.  This is Timberline Resources Corp (TLR) which I sold today for $1.20 after buying it just yesterday for $1.06.














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Today's buy was an accumulation of more shares of Cardero Resource Corp (CDY) at $1.20.


Click on the charts to ENLARGE


My TSI trading record has been updated.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

All Buys - ANO $0.95 CDY $1.16 MGH $1.33 NSU $4.94 PZG $1.59 SILA $0.80 TLR $1.06

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I had more fun today buying mining stocks in the 20 minutes I had to work with than a kid looking at new bikes at the toy store.  Geez, so much to choose from....but it was really fun.  I bought 7 new positions today.  Will probably buy more or add to these tomorrow.
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That spike down in gold at 2 am last night was like watching a lightening bolt.  This gold bull market has awesome power and momentum, and I am still shaking my head at what I have witnessed.  Needless to say, I think the daily cycle that was about to conclude, did concluded last night at 2 am.  From here we should be to $1400 gold very quickly.  A couple weeks, if that.
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I have commented on each chart and will not belabor the comments here.  If you are interested in a particular chart, to see why I bought the stock, my explanation is there.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.
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My Watch List - Miners

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I wish I had time to make a chart of each stock on my watch list and show you why each look so interesting to me.  But unfortunately I do not have that kind of time to spare.  
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I will tell you this:  each of these stocks are on the verge (or have begun) a True Strength Index (TSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator breakout, and most are ready to do so above the ZERO crossover line, which is ideal.  
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For you fellow stock pickers out there, enjoy!
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I will also add that gold (and silver and platinum) did something very strange overnight (2 am).  In the flash of a single minute gold dropped from around $1292 down to $1276 and then immediately reversed right back up to $1292.  
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This is very strange and reminds me of the 5 minute "correction" we got to conclude the last daily cycle (August 24) when gold dropped from $1230+ to $1210 and then  returned to $1240.  As now is the perfect time for the current daily cycle to conclude, I cannot help but wonder if lightening has struck twice in the same place.  If so, it is time to buy and certainly NOT sell.
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Here is my watch list:  (stocks already exhibiting a breakout or either the TSI or MFI on their DAILY CHART are notated with a '*')


1.  ANO $0.95 *
2.  AZK $6.83 **
3.  CDY $1.15 
4.  CMIN $0.39 **
5.  CXZ $0.18 
6.  EXK $3.99
7.  GPRLF $0.966
8.  GUYFF $10.25
9.  JAG $6.47
10. LUNMF $4.78 **
11. MGH $1.31 *
12. MVG $7.71
13. NSU $4.86
14. OLEPF $1.37
15. OSKFF $13.34 *
16. PEXPF $0.287 *
17. PEZGF $1.544 
18. PMMEF $0.445 *
19. PZG $1.56 *
20. RBY $4.12 **
21. RDUFF $0.687 
22. RIC $4.93
23. SEMFF $9.13
24. SFEG $1.08
25. SFMI $0.177
26. SILA $0.83 *
27. TLR $1.08 *
28. VGMNF $7.45
29. VGZ $2.47 *
30. VITFF $1.01 *

Monday, September 27, 2010

BUY SFMI @ $0.18

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I did some light shopping today and picked up a miner that has recently been taken down 45%.  I am concerned that gold and silver are about to enter a brief correction and would prefer to buy something that has already had the wind knocked out of it, than buy a high flyer that is likely to get taken down.  This is a 2 hour chart of Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI) which I bought for 18 cents. 
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Believe it or not, I used to own this stock when it was just 2 cents.  From those days the stock then went to 50 cents, back down to its 200 dma at 12 cents, more recently back up to 31 cents, and today I bought it on its 50 dma at 18 cents.  Quite the roller coaster!
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI trading record has been updated.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Gold, Silver, the US Dollar and Stock Market. What Now?

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It's been a while since I have had time to write a substantive post due to my full-time employment as a public school teacher.  But I found time this morning, so let's do some catching up on where we are right now with respect to gold, silver, the US Dollar and the Stock Market!
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The charts I am using come from:  FreeStockCharts.
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This first chart is a weekly look at the World Gold Index (XGLD) for the past 4 years, more or less.  My focus with this chart is the bigger picture of gold's repetitive ABCD price performance pattern and the relationship of price peaks to the 200 day moving average (dma).  Some of the details shake out to reveal that price is currently a mere 10.6% above the 200 dma, while significant price peaks do not typically occur until price reaches something north of 25% above the 200 dma.  This strongly suggests to me that the current upleg in gold is far from over and also that a projection of $1,500 in November is not that crazy.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
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Next we will look at a weekly chart of iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV).  With yesterday's price action, SLV reached a new All-Time high of 21.02 - eclipsing the previous high of 20.73 set on March 14, 2008.  SLV will now trade with no overhead resistance and both the True Strength Index (TSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicators suggest there is plenty of room for SLV to explode higher from here.  Just based on where the indicators are currently reading, my sense is that this move in silver is right about 50-60% over - suggesting a price of $24-$25 in the next many weeks.
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Third on the chart list is this daily of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP).  The UUP is a US Dollar ETF that I use as a proxy for the US Dollar itself.
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I find a couple of things interesting about this chart.  First, the TSI and MFI absolutely nailed the previous counter rally that began on August 9th.  This gives me a measure of confidence that these indicators have a good chance of identifying the next counter rally. And secondly, I note that the current situation appears ready for another counter trend bounce or perhaps brief rally.  A single strong up day in the US Dollar, at this point, would likely trigger a trend line break of both indicators and signal a trend change.
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Fourth and finally, this is a daily chart of the Standard & Poors 500 (SP-500).  For this analysis I have chosen to focus on investor sentiment, as opposed to a pre-occupation with the TSI and MFI indicators.
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For the sentiment data itself, I have used the industry standard Investors Intelligence. You may review this data for yourself by clicking this link.  
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The most obvious observation is that we have currently reached a bullish percentage (41.4%) that is consistent with market tops.  Another way of saying this is that we are likely at a point where we are going to start running out of a sufficient number of new buyers who will continue to overwhelm the number of sellers.  Price, in this situation, may be able to go a little higher but I suspect this rally is, for all intents and purposes, finished.
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Additionally, the TSI and MFI indicators are starting to show signs of wear and tear.... with a negative divergence showing up in both indicators and a negative trend line break in the MFI.  And considering that the US Dollar is due a bounce, another piece of evidence seems to be falling in place to substantiate my thought that the current rally is about over.
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The extremely strong rally we had in gold, silver and the stock market yesterday (Friday) provided a nice opportunity for smart money to take profits and pass off their positions to the new comers.  My hunch is that we are due some near term weakness in these markets to temporarily reset sentiment to more pessimistic levels.  At least that is the way I have positioned my portfolio - taken profits where I had them, raised cash and waiting to see when/if we get a change in short term direction.
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My TSI trading record - which is simply a summation measurement of the gain/loss for each individual trade - is now +343.3%.  
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The value of my trading account, since beginning this blog June 11th, 2010, has now increased 74%.  
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Aside from my use of the True Strength Index and Money Flow Index indicators for buy and sell decisions, I credit my record to a general stubbornness to take losses.  As I am predominately trading mining stocks which are in a true secular bull market, I take the point of view that the bull will eventually bring price back to a profit if I am patient.  My positions do get under water from time to time due to an error in my judgement.  When that happens I just wait for the position to come back to green before I sell it.  At least that is what I try to do.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

SOLD CDY $1.20 ANO $0.94 OSKFF $13.27 and KBX $0.88

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Today, I felt in a house cleaning mood and sold every miner that I had a gain - which leaves me with just two positions that presently are under water (CMIN and MQCMF).
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My first sale was of Cadero Resource Corp (CDY) at $1.20.  This closes out all those thousands and thousands of shares I bought and now I have no more.  
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
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The second sale was Anooraq Resources Corp (ANO) at $0.94.  This, like CDY, I spent a lot of attention accumulating and it was very good to me.....but now I own no more.








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The third sale was Osisko Mining Corp (OSKFF) at $13.27.  I had a limit offer that I guess was taken in the pre-market at this price because it does not appear that OSKFF traded this high during the regular session.  Every once in a while, a guy gets lucky I guess.




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Fourth and finally, Kimber Resources Inc (KBX) at $0.88.  To tell you the truth, this stock looks like a buy today with break outs of the Money Flow Index (MFI) and True Strength Index (TSI) indicators.  I'm not sure what I was thinking when I sold this (or if I was thinking is probably more like it).  Anyway, my shares belong to somebody else now and I wish them luck!
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My TSI Trading record has been updated and is now 343.3%.

SOLD NGD - $6.15

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I had a very modest limit order in to sell my position in New Gold Inc (NGD) which just got taken out in the pre-market trade.  I am of the mind that gold and the stock market will, in short order, take a brief breather, and I would like to take profits in any and all positions that are presently in the green - with the plan to bring my money back to the table after the breather concludes.
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Target prices for the resumption of the bull would include gold $1265 and SP500 1120.  These are general targets, areas where I will look for the True Strength Index (TSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicators to start showing a change of heart.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

BOUGHT CMIN - $0.366

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Well, I took another bite of the sour apple and will be plenty happy to spit it out when the time comes.  This is Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN).  My average share price on this thing is down to $0.425 and I am going to hope I can wait for a little price bump to expel the rot.  I have read that as many as 42M shares of the 88M share float have been sold short.  If true, I don't think those shares are going to get paid until I get paid.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

BOUGHT CMIN - $0.365

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Yesterday (Monday) I made two additional purchases of Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN) for a blended price of $0.365.  This stock is proving to be one horribly manipulated by short sellers - and not a situation that I care to revisit once I get my money back.
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Selling volume appears to have all but dried up and the Money Flow Index (MFI) really has no choice but to break out to the upside, either today or tomorrow.  Once the buying begins I expect price, and the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator to head north as well.
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I suppose for a reader who has not already put some of their chips on the CMIN table this is a pretty good time to buy a little.  History seems to show that once the short sellers decide its time to pay themselves for their deed (ie. buy back their short positions), the stock price will rocket about 50% higher in the course of just 2-3 days.  For myself, that will be approximately good enough to break even.  For someone else, it could be a very quick and massive gain.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Friday, September 17, 2010

SOLD SHSH $.119 and JAG $6.45

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I'm really not sure how much higher gold will go before this daily cycle peaks (if it did not peak already today).  So, I wanted to take some gains off the table and put them back into my account for another day.
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I bought Shoshone Silver Mining Co (SHSH) 4 days ago and as it got a nice pop today I decided to sell and move on.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE.
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I have been holding Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG) for what has seemed like eons.  Actually, it has been about 5 weeks but for me, that is eons.  Anyway, it started losing steam over the past few days and what gain I waited so patiently to capture was beginning to disappear - so I put in the sell order and said good-bye.
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My TSI trading record has been updated and now stands at 305.9% in three months.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

SOLD SILA $0.94 BOUGHT KBX $0.85 MQCMF $0.91

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I sold one position today and bought two new ones.  For each of my (9) positions I have a GTC limit order in place, as I am not able to watch the action during the day but for 35 minutes. 
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My sale today was of Silver America Inc (SILA) at $0.94.  I bought this position just two days ago and as luck would have it, my GTC limit order executed at the high of the day for a juicy 23.7% gain.  It continually amazes me how well the True Strength Index (TSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicators, combined with a positive ZERO TSI crossover and a positive divergence in place, provide a very powerful BUY signal.  You can look at the setup as I posted it a couple days ago.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
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Kimber Resources Inc (KBX) was my first purchase today at 85 cents.  I may have been a shade early on this buy, as the TSI is just barely showing a breakout on this 4 hour chart, and the  MFI has still not broken out.




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Mosquito Cons Gold M (MQCMF) was my other purchase today at $0.91.  Cute name for a mining stock, huh?
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Basically this one, as with SILA a couple days ago, has the whole tamale in the tortilla.  Trend line breakouts of both the TSI and MFI, positive ZERO crossover and a positive divergence in place, if that was not enough.
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You may have noticed that I am experimenting with using the TSI (7,4) purple line overlayed upon the TSI (25,13) blue line.  I have a hunch I am working on and if I figure something out it will give me something else to write about.  :-)
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My TSI trading record has been updated.







Tuesday, September 14, 2010

SOLD ZSL $26.28 BOUGHT SHSH $.11 NGD $6.08 CMIN $.39 SILA $.76

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Before the market opened I knew my Proshares Ultrashort Silver (ZSL) position was a dead duck so I put in a limit order and thankfully was taken out at $26.28, sustaining a modest 1.6% LOSS.  


Click on the charts to ENLARGE


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In my 35 minutes of free time today while the markets were open, I furiously went on a hunt to find some candidates to replenish the stocks I sold yesterday.  This first daily chart is of Shoshone Silver Mining Co (SHSH).  This particular setup has a lot going for it.  The True Strength Index (TSI) indicator and Money Flow Index (MFI) both have trend line breaks.  The faster (7,4) purple is already flying above zero, yet price has been curiously consolidating sideways for 7 weeks.  I have a tendency to sell too soon sometimes, but have a GTC limit order in for 14 cents - once this thing breaks to the upside.  A 30% gain would be fine with me.  This should work out.
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The second daily chart is of New Gold Inc (NGD).  There are no trend line breaks or positive divergences on this chart.  BUT, check out the cup with handle pattern.  Doesn't this thing look like a diving board about ready to rocket launch?


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My third chart is another purchase for me of Constitution Mining (CMIN) at 39 cents.  This stock has been cut in half in literally 4 days. Common, give me a break!  No company deserves to be cut in half that fast just because they want to raise some working capital.  The sellers are possessed of irrational fear and well, I just have to take their shares from them and keep them in a safe place until they want them back at a higher price.
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My fourth and final purchase today, mind you in 35 minutes time, was Silver America Inc (SILA).  I've been watching this one and waiting for it to setup and, well, I think its there NOW.  Everything is in place, but the kitchen sink.  LOL  TSI and MFI breakouts, ZERO crossover almost, and nice healthy positive divergence in place.
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As we had breakouts today on both gold and the mining index, I think this is the time to be fully loaded and ready for action. 
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Off the record, I did buy a futures contract to short the US Dollar at about 5 am this morning and so far it has made a 75% gain on the funds I used to purchase the contract.  I plan to add a second short contract on the US Dollar sometime soon.  Also, I purchased one long futures contract on Gold.  By the time I got to my computer at the noon hour, gold had already made its big move, so that position is minimally underwater - but I do not think for long.
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My TSI trading record has been updated.

SOLD CGC $3.50, CFMSF $4.10, PLG $1.91 BUY CMIN $.46 ZSL $26.70

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I made three sales on Monday and two purchases.  I was leaning toward the idea that gold and silver would take  a little breather and so I took some profits, did some bargain shopping and bought a hedge supporting my idea.
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This first daily chart is of Capital Gold Corporation (CGC) which I sold for $3.50.  It appeared that the indicators were likely to give me a sell signal, I had some profit and put it back into my account.
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This second daily chart is of Clifton Star Resources (CFMSF).  As with CGC, my decision to sell was based more on my desire to take profits and put the money back into my account, than some extremely convincing sell signals.


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This third daily chart is of Platinum Group Metal (PLG).  Same story as above.












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The first purchase I made on Monday was of Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN).  This stock is a great example of why these penny stocks are so unpredictable and volatile.  The company announced that it was diluting shares to raise cash.  The stock had been declining mysteriously for days, but took a full deep water nose dive on the news when finally "made public".  I think at one point this stock was down some 35% - talk about over reaction.  Personally, I think someone knew a lot more than the rest of us days and days ago, and had the resources to short the daylights out of the stock - with the plan to cover the shorts on the predictable panic.  
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My other purchase was of Proshares Ultrashort Silver (ZSL).  This is that hedge purchase I alluded to in the opening paragraph.  Watching things overnight I would imagine this purchase will not be profitable, as silver looks like it is going to scream higher from here - especially with the US Dollar seemingly collapsing.  I did not have a clear buy signal, but one appeared to have imminent odds of appearing.  Maybe next time I should wait for the signal, you know?
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My TSI trading record has been updated.




Thursday, September 9, 2010

Bought CMIN - $0.635

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Just one purchase today, and no sales.  This is a daily chart of Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN).  I took an initial position today at $0.635.  This is another company that I know very little about.  However, a couple of things intrigued me about the setup.  My hunch is that this is a stock that is somewhat 'manipulated' - meaning that it suffers from bouts of heavy short-selling and then furious covering.  The price action back in late July suggests this possibility to me.  If true, as now there is a considerable positive divergence built up with respect to the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator and price, and price has been pushed through the lower Bollinger Band, it appears this thing is spring loaded for a nice ride to the upside.  Indeed, the last time this happened the stock appreciated over 50% in a little over one week.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI trading record has been updated.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

SOLD DROOY $4.33 - BOUGHT CFMSF $3.95 ANO $.91 PLG $1.87

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I sold one position today, added to a couple of existing positions, and added a new miner.
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This is  DRD Gold Ltd Adr (DROOY) which I sold on a blind limit order at $4.33 today.  The stock continued to close higher today at $4.40.
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This daily chart is of Anooraq Resources Corp (ANO).  I added to my existing position today with a new purchase of shares at $.915.  ANO currently has a trend line break of both the True Strength Index (TSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicators, as well as a ZERO crossover.


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This daily chart is of Platinum Group Metal (PLG).  I added to my existing position today with a new purchase of shares at $1.87.  PLG, like ANO, illustrates my ideal BUY setup, which includes TSI and MFI breakouts and a bullish ZERO line crossover.




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My final purchase today was of a stock I have not previously owned.  This is Clifton Star Resources (CFMSF).  I don't know anything about the company, to be honest, but I did take a shine to the bullish buy setup.
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My TSI trading record has been updated.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

SOLD CLHRF $.38, CDY $1.25, PZG $141 BOUGHT PLG $1.83, OSKFF $12.75

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I made three sales today and two purchases.  I am finding it extremely difficult to trade for the correct entry and exit price when I am only able to see a computer for 30-45 minutes a day.  I don't like this feeling that my hands are tied behind my back.
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This first sale was of Coral Gold Resources (CLHRF).  In this seemingly run away environment, the upper Bollinger Band is penetrated by most nearly every mining stock, yet this usual quasi sell signal is not stopping the bull from crashing right through this or any obstacle in its way.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
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My second sale today was of Cardero Resource Corp (CDY).  It appears I got something close to the high for the day - dumb luck, let me tell you.  I just have to guess at these limit orders before I go to work and then take whatever happens and try to keep going.  I have one remaining position in CDY and I hope to sell it when Gold reaches $1300 in a few to several days.
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My third sale was Paramount Gold Mining Corp (PZG).  Another miner up quickly into the upper Bollinger Band.  It would not surprise me if this stock just keeps going.  Indeed, it closed up higher than my sales price but for holding 2 days, I can't complain with a 7% return.  


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Two purchases today, not very well timed, I should add.  First, this is Platinum Group Metal (PLG).  As platinum has not 'taken off' like gold and silver, these platinum stocks are still in a workable technical situation for me.  PLG does have a MFI breakout on this daily chart and with a single day of good price movement, will also have a breakout on the TSI.  The stock has recently been $2.10 and $2.20 and I have little doubt that it could achieve something close to that in the next many days.
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Finally, my other purchase was of Osisko Mining Corp (OSKFF).  This stock has nearly doubled in the last 8 months and rather than be concerned with the TSI stuff, I like that it had tested the previous peak of $12.00, had pulled back and was probably a good candidate to buy and hold if it does not start to move right away.  It certainly is not overbought as most everything else is, at this time.
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My TSI trading record has been updated.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

The Compounding Effect of Success

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I would like to offer a brief explanation of the compounding effect of successful trading.  My hope is that you will find this post psychologically helpful, encouraging and maybe even influential on your current trading practices.
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The most important foundation for achieving an incredible trading record, and the most difficult period of time, is the beginning time period of your track record.  If one can carefully manage their initial trade profitability, it gets much easier to be 'wildly successful' thereafter.  Let me show you how this is true.
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Let's say you begin your annual trading record with $1,000 and a goal of achieving a 400% return for the year.  The goal then is to turn $1,000 into $5,000 in 12 months.  A couple of years ago I began, more or less, this very way and what I learned and experienced taught me an important lesson I hope to make your lesson, as well.
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If you are absolutely committed to this goal, you will be ruthless about accepting large losses.  Either you decide with yourself that you will get out of a position once it begins to go against you, so as to minimize your loss, or you decide that you will not accept a loss and commit yourself to patiently wait to take a gain.  In the beginning, there are no other options that will result in your success.
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Getting from $1,000 to $1,100 - the first 10% portfolio gain - is the most difficult 10% of the entire 400% goal.  Whether it takes you a day, a week, a month or several months to achieve this, you must get this first 10% and guard it with jealousy.  Do NOT allow it to be taken away from you.  It is, after all, the precious foundation of your trading record.
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Assuming you make it to $1100, now it only takes a 9% gain on $1100 to reach the next benchmark - a 20% gain on $1,000, or $1,200.
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You have heard the old saying, 'it takes money, to make money'.  Well, it is true!  That is because the compounding effect of success makes it increasingly easier to make more money. As you break each little milestone - the first 10%, the second 10%, the third 10% and so on - you do so having more money - each step of the way - to make money.  In reality, it get's easier to make more money as you succeed.
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To carry this just a bit further, let's say it takes you 6 months to achieve a 50% gain in your portfolio value...... i.e. you now have an account value of $1,500.  To reach a $2,000 portfolio value it will take a gain of $500 additional.  But now you are in the market using $1,500, instead of the $1,000 as when you began.  Instead of needing a second 50% gain, you just need a 33% gain of $1,500 to make it to the $2,000 mark.
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Once you achieve a 100% portfolio gain, the next 100% - making it to 200% - is twice as easy as in the beginning because you work with twice as much money.  The next 100%, bringing you to 300% is easier yet, and finally the last 100% taking you to 400% is the easiest 100% of them all.  
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To apply all this to my personal current situation, here is what my trading record is on pace to achieve since beginning my trading record and this blog on June 11th, 2010:
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3 months - 50% gain in portfolio account balance
4.5 months - 100% gain
6.25 months - 200% gain
9 months - 400% gain
12 months - 600+ % gain (June 11th, 2011)
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Whether I achieve this or not is not particularly important to me.  I have made this 600% gain in as little as 7 months before, so making it in 12 months would be nice but not a personal milestone.  What is important to me is that I do my best with the opportunity I have.  And as I have mentioned before, I compete with myself, no one else.  
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If you have read this far, I hope you leave this discussion with a new appreciation for how important it is to appreciate the smallest of your successes.  I sincerely believe that a carefully constructed foundation is what you need to build your success upon - and that you can do it - if only you will patiently honor its critical importance and nurture it with great care.