There goes gold again, doing something today it has only been able to do 8 other times in its entire bull market beginning in 2001. Details with charts in a second.
And what is with this specific angle of trajectory that the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator's trend line break technique continues to use to call SELL signals? I'm talking about 7 times in the past year or two. Very curious. We'll get to these details with charts in just a second, too.
But first, let's listen in on gold talkin' to da boyz in the locker room. I need you to hear this for yourself before we proceed, lest you have any doubt about gold's present frame of mind.
"Bro, y'all need to git dem smellin' boo-tays of yurs outta my way cuz now I ain't taken no mo of y'alls homie BS. UH...ha. (Jive strut or two). Uh...ha. (Spit that barely misses the dog, but doesn't miss somebody's shiny black shoe). Outta my way fore I stick this here knife thru the bottom of yur cock roach infested moolah bag over dat fire and make y'alls (Comex) papers turn bright red and orange".
Oh boy - now that was INTENSE.
Serious attitude. Uh...huh.
Knives, fires and boo-tays. Very serious stuff.
Well, now that you have heard it for yourself ... I hope you will be motivated to keep reading. I am going to show you why gold is struttin' with attitude. I promise my tale will give you a couple of new things to ponder and maybe even render some advice to keep you out of gold's way.
S0 let's begin with today's ongoing action in the US Dollar Cash Index ($DXY). First we'll take a look with the TSI (7,4) in the lower indicator panel, then take a second peek to include the TSI (25,13).
|Click on any chart to ENLARGE|
OK, now the $DXY with TSI (25,13) - which measures momentum in more of a trending manner than the sports car TSI (7,4).
On Wednesday April 17th I penned this article proclaiming US Dollar Index - Good Odds for a Meltdown and used the /DX daily chart with TSI (25,13). What I really didn't explain adequately (my apology) was more about why a likely subsequent rally in the dollar (which we have briefly had since that post two weeks ago) had high odds for failure.
The reason I felt strongly about this was because I could see that the dollar was in an absolutely impossible position with respect to the TSI.
That is, the previous dollar rally took the TSI up to +40. But as the hot air balloon was now taking the tops of trees off with a reading of just +3 when a new rally might begin, there was no way - even if price made a higher high - that the TSI was going to make a higher high. The TSI (25,13) just does not move that fast.
It appeared to me inevitable that a negative divergence of magnitude would cause the referee to blow the whistle, throw the flag and call negative divergence - you lose, and now it's time for price to crash. That is the penalty price must pay when the TSI begins to cross from positive to negative readings. As of today, what I thought was inevitable is happening.
Getting down to the specifics of gold's price action today, I created another (simple) indicator to locate for me all the times that the TSI (7,4) was positive 10, 11 and 12 days in a row.
As of today, and providing /GC closes somewhere around $1470 or better, it is the 11th consecutive day in a row that the TSI indicator has risen. I thought this might be unusual, and it is. Let's see when it has happened in the past beginning with 2001 - 2007.
Looks like the TSI rose 10 consecutive trading sessions 3-4 months before the late 2004 parabolic C-wave top, and 12 consecutive days 8 or so months before the 2006 parabolic C-wave top.
Here is 2007 - 2012.
In this time frame we find 5 more instances ranging from 10 - 12 consecutive days. And as in the earlier chart, these strong and extremely unusual momentum moves do not seem to necessarily spot the tops of price movement. Indeed, they usually seem to precede a HUGE move even higher.
OK, here is 2012 - present.
And we have two more of these things, including one presently. The other one (on the left) is kinda odd. That sure did not precede a big follow through higher like all the others. That's kinda strange, don't you think?
Well hold on, I'll explain what actually happened very shortly.
But for now, let's get to that incredible TSI trend line angle of trajectory that has nailed 7 SELL signals in the past year or a little more.
I make these charts using the ThinkorSwim platform and it has a little utility that, as one clicks on a point then drags the trend line to where you wish to click again and have it remain on the screen, it also shows very precise angle measurements.
You know, I have been drawing these darned trend line breaks on the TSI for years and years.... and I got to looking at a few of these on GC and wondered to myself if they were the exact same angle. Then I remembered I had a way to find out the answer to my own question.
And look at that. The trajectory of those blue trend lines above are nearly identical - just a shade more than 40 degrees.
So then I decided to keep doing some more TSI trend lines and here came 4 more - all right about 38 degrees.
Well I'll be darned. Probably just coincidence (wink!).
Finally, I promised to get back to you on that one recent TSI run of 10 positive and consecutive days that instead of preceding a strong leg higher, actually preceded a strong leg lower. We took a look at that 3 charts earlier.
Here is what happened.
The TSI rose for 10 consecutive days. The most days it has ever risen consecutively is 12. Once you get to 10, 11 or 12 days, it is time for a breather. Happens every time, as you noticed. Price can just fumble around for a couple days, causing the TSI 'winning' streak to falter, then price rockets higher OR price can actually go into a fairly brief and stronger down draft - THEN resume higher.
And guess what? That is precisely what I saw setting up right before my very eyes.
Price quickly corrected downwards sharply for 3 days then came right back and heading upwards. The TSI (7,4) was actually nudged right up against the underside of the orange trend line I drew. The TSI was perfectly positioned for a trend line break BUY signal, right below ZERO and ready to break out upside.
Then Samson's look alike showed up. Hour after hour I watched as he held the massive iron rod in his mighty hands, straining and gasping for air as he slowing caused the iron to begin to bend. It was incredible. The TSI that was nudged right up against the orange trend line began to whither .... slowly ...... whither. Further and further it withdrew from the orange trend line. Like watching a candle melt slowly for hours. I could not take my eyes off what I was seeing.
Then an order to sell 400 tons of paper gold hit the market. Price plummeted. The TSI plummeted. There would be no bullish trend line break BUY signal that day.
But Samson's look alike put so much into bending the iron bar that a couple of days later he collapsed. His mighty strength was gone. After that, he passed away and is no longer with us. May he rest in peace and prepare for receiving his friends soon, in the place where those who destroy the fortunes of honest hard working citizens for sport belong. Amen.
Ah, shhhh... I hear gold talking to someone. He still has his attitude, I can hear that. And over and over again, I can just barely hear his cry at this distance ....