tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post1056050806068805850..comments2023-09-17T02:33:56.785-05:00Comments on The TSI Trader: Gold, Silver, Miners, Stock Market and the US DollarJohn Townsendhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-83142073453109628792011-06-16T08:38:15.477-05:002011-06-16T08:38:15.477-05:00Anon - I do not own DUST or ZSL. Honestly, as a sh...Anon - I do not own DUST or ZSL. Honestly, as a short term trade it is very difficult to say what to do with either.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-8581974747378363732011-06-16T06:53:15.678-05:002011-06-16T06:53:15.678-05:00USD up is not bring metal down. It seeme that peop...USD up is not bring metal down. It seeme that people like find precious metal a safe place to avoid risk. Should I take loss for my DUST and ZSL?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-28558763700213550582011-06-14T17:46:11.644-05:002011-06-14T17:46:11.644-05:00Be careful with leveraged ETF's like ZSL and A...Be careful with leveraged ETF's like ZSL and AGQ: never hold them overnight. The difference between the open and close can be so big that all your profits are instantly gone - or worse - that your stop loss is skipped and you are facing a big loss. Just trade intraday with good money management.<br /><br />An usuable indicator is the extended hours price. Check cnbc.com This is however on low volume, so only use it as an indicator.<br /><br />It is like John said: try to get as much odds in favor as possible when you trade.Verrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05822465732730444959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-2680360567520520812011-06-14T15:47:37.240-05:002011-06-14T15:47:37.240-05:00John:
Do you think it's time to buy ZSL now? S...John:<br />Do you think it's time to buy ZSL now? Silver were down big for 2 days and rebounded a little today. ZSL is sitting at the bottom for about a week now, and TSI is almost cross over 0. ThanksJUhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05095146500760673113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-22332283181850164682011-06-14T12:18:57.968-05:002011-06-14T12:18:57.968-05:00Hey Duke - nah, this condition does not necessaril...Hey Duke - nah, this condition does not necessarily signal a near term bottom. <br /><br />The Bollinger Bands are a measure of volatility, usually calculated so that the upper and lower bands are 2.0 standard deviations from the mean price of the past 20 days. <br /><br />Translation - when price goes sideways for an extended period of time, the Bollinger Bands contract. As they contract there is an increasingly smaller area in which price may move around without touching either band.<br /><br />This is precisely want one expects to see at a major breakout. Namely, Bollinger Bands contracting and narrowing the range of price movement. <br /><br />Then - one side wins and the other side loses - the Bollinger Bands begin to expand again as price either screams higher along the upper band OR screams lower along the lower band.<br /><br />Thanks for the question.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-16188991509931710982011-06-14T11:19:28.974-05:002011-06-14T11:19:28.974-05:00John
The Bollinger Bands show XSLV at the bottom. ...John<br />The Bollinger Bands show XSLV at the bottom. Does that concern you that it may signal a near term bottom?Dukehttp://dukeschowderhouse.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-84364364161375458832011-06-14T10:54:25.078-05:002011-06-14T10:54:25.078-05:00Good question Mike!
www.FreeStockCharts.com
www.T...Good question Mike!<br /><br />www.FreeStockCharts.com<br />www.ThinkorSwim.comJohn Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-34991075044797311172011-06-14T10:49:23.065-05:002011-06-14T10:49:23.065-05:00Hi John,
As I am new to the site, is there a sim...Hi John, <br /><br />As I am new to the site, is there a simple way to follow the TSI? I have not found it in the trading software I use (Interactive Brokers). Thanks in advance.<br /><br />MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-53644347295525862782011-06-14T07:44:34.569-05:002011-06-14T07:44:34.569-05:00Sunmaker,
I think it is the D-wave, reason I say t...Sunmaker,<br />I think it is the D-wave, reason I say this is because I think a lot of the money that normally went into Gold went into Silver. That's why you didn't see the highs you normally would see.honushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08403011818018880889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-44712782901642303702011-06-14T01:37:42.433-05:002011-06-14T01:37:42.433-05:00Its not the "D-wave" - not yet -, it can...Its not the "D-wave" - not yet -, it cannot be price and time wise.<br /><br />I was able to get back in GOLD yesterday at $ 1514. I waited 7 days for that set up. Next stop around $ 1600, not later than next month July.<br /><br />SunmakerSunmakernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-23332498432892724802011-06-13T18:57:50.469-05:002011-06-13T18:57:50.469-05:00Hi John, your comment on oil was very interesting ...Hi John, your comment on oil was very interesting as I bought oil Puts last week when I saw that its intermediate cycle trend line was under pressure. Given silver made a move south today, its nice to hear your suggestion that oil will follow its direction too :o)head scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-33677203670676032412011-06-13T14:27:48.332-05:002011-06-13T14:27:48.332-05:00ckpc - you made my day. thank you!
Verra - I gue...ckpc - you made my day. thank you!<br /><br />Verra - I guess we got our answer today. (Like it was a big surprise).<br /><br />I am considering buying ZSL as I think I have seen about enough to believe it reasonably safe.<br /><br />The way these things often work is that there is a retest back up to the break out price ($18ish). I will probably wait for now and see if that happens. If I miss the move by doing this, that's fine. <br /><br />The most important thing, IMO, is to keep an eye on what the TSI is saying. If after buying ZSL the TSI says it's time to go......well, it's time to go. <br /><br />For now, anyway, this looks to be a very favorable setup and it could well prove to have been an incredible opportunity.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-54200015113450171902011-06-13T05:53:13.104-05:002011-06-13T05:53:13.104-05:00John do you follow extorre gold (XG)? This thing j...John do you follow extorre gold (XG)? This thing just keeps chugging along like nothing in the world is wrong!<br /><br /> JamesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-42846840888577290442011-06-13T04:01:57.259-05:002011-06-13T04:01:57.259-05:00Thanks for the analysis a really great article. Wh...Thanks for the analysis a really great article. While long term I am bullish in gold and silver the short term looks very bearish (which fits in nicely with seasonal trends). I was looking at the CCI against silver after Friday close which also just passed below zero. I have gone short on the Asian open last night. Hope it holds.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-21240438045146697922011-06-13T00:46:57.879-05:002011-06-13T00:46:57.879-05:00john,
How did you learn about cycles? Did yo...john,<br /> How did you learn about cycles? Did you read a book or did you just pick it up sort of on your own? I'm still not a believer but it's quite interesting.Montyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04208974431161689537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-19466281404191060172011-06-12T19:47:33.227-05:002011-06-12T19:47:33.227-05:00Hi John,
First day on your site and am very impre...Hi John,<br /><br />First day on your site and am very impressed.. I follow cycle theory at Smart Money Tracker and The document.com.... thanks for your terrific charts and analysis...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-48580975842904246472011-06-12T17:28:23.751-05:002011-06-12T17:28:23.751-05:00Thank you John, silver started the week with a neg...Thank you John, silver started the week with a negative change. At what level do you think it is safe to say it will move south further? (When is the pennant definitely crossed -> time for ZSL?)Verrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05822465732730444959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-24460602154227423682011-06-12T17:11:05.012-05:002011-06-12T17:11:05.012-05:00Eureka!!!! I check every day to see if you have po...Eureka!!!! I check every day to see if you have posted and today I shouted "hooray!" <br />I hope you've enjoyed a well deserved week of relaxation since the end of the school year. <br /><br />This was a great report. I sure look forward to reading as many reports as you feel up to posting throughout this summer. Can't tell you how much you've helped me learn. Many, many thanks!ckpchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05457089936473934132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-7828127463640736032011-06-12T13:47:05.031-05:002011-06-12T13:47:05.031-05:00Thanks for the great analysis as always!Thanks for the great analysis as always!Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532170043439921989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-8183472175937330722011-06-12T12:34:51.451-05:002011-06-12T12:34:51.451-05:00Fung - did I pay you to write that?
Thanks.
Ano...Fung - did I pay you to write that? <br /><br />Thanks.<br /><br />Anon - miners should bounce if the S&P bounces, yes.<br /><br />Anon - without a chart it is a little tough to answer your question about the dollar daily cycles. <br /><br />But the concept for figuring it out is as follows: cycles are measured from one low to another low. When a new cycle begins price therefore always rises. When a cycle nears its conclusion price is always falling.<br /><br />Exactly how many days it will be until price ceases to rise and then begins its descent to the next low is not known. <br /><br />However, when one is in a bull market the cycles peak after the midpoint day. When in a bear market, the cycles peak before the midpoint day.<br /><br />There will be several daily cycles that comprise an intermediate, or sometimes called weekly cycle. In a bull market each cycle will peak after its midpoint day (Day 13 of a 24 Day cycle, eg). <br /><br />However, when an intermediate cycle is about to draw to a close it's last daily cycle usually peaks before it's midpoint day. <br /><br />This subtle change is what alerts us that an intermediate cycle is about to come to a conclusion and that there will now be a more significant correction.<br /><br />I did not answer your question as directly as a chart would. But if you want to figure it out, look at a daily chart of the US Dollar and start counting days back from one low to the preceding low. Observe the number of days. Observe whether the peak day was before or after the midpoint day.<br /><br />Every once in a while cycles are shortened to, say, 17 days. And likewise lengthened to say, 31 days. <br /><br />But hey, if it were cookie cutter simple everyone would be rich, right?<br /><br />I hope my answer helped you.<br /><br />cbritton - crude oil, huh? wow, I never look at that. But I did just a minute ago, since you asked. :)<br /><br />Looks a lot like silver. Huge drop May 1st and since then a pennant pattern. The daily TSI suggests there will be a decisive breakout this week and my hunch is that it will be to the downside.<br /><br />FWIW, I don't listen to the news, watch TV or do a lot of reading. What I see on the chart is what I see on the chart and what everyone else *knows*, well, I have no clue.<br /><br />Anyway, once oil and silver break out, it is going to mean something. That is, the break out will not stop there but instead will develop into a sustained move. And of course, they will both break out in the same direction.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-73886809252054984722011-06-12T09:28:48.498-05:002011-06-12T09:28:48.498-05:00John,
Any comments on crude oil?
ThanksJohn,<br /><br />Any comments on crude oil?<br /><br />Thankschris brittonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03430619977762904501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-64546634515914498312011-06-12T07:36:43.600-05:002011-06-12T07:36:43.600-05:00John, could you kindly explain how you derive a 20...John, could you kindly explain how you derive a 20 to 25 day cycle for the dollar?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-84097451891984920222011-06-12T06:49:11.026-05:002011-06-12T06:49:11.026-05:00John,you say : 'suggesting a bounce is forthco...John,you say : 'suggesting a bounce is forthcoming and very soon' regarding S&P,would the miners not bounce as well?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-63622466407426889962011-06-12T00:23:11.941-05:002011-06-12T00:23:11.941-05:00Thanks for the great analysis. I must say you have...Thanks for the great analysis. I must say you have helped me to make the most profit in my life last year! Thank you for that. I am now 90% in cash. Look forward to more of your analysis in the near future. Keep up the good work!Funghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02021422171993122484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-2272632414369088962011-06-11T17:46:08.760-05:002011-06-11T17:46:08.760-05:00Anonymous, great comment. Wonderful imagery to sup...Anonymous, great comment. Wonderful imagery to support your points. I sure hope it gets moving south soon. If silver goes to $21, I will make extraordinary profits. <br />I imagine there are plenty of folks trapped inside that collapsed parabola, hoping to wait it out, waiting for silver to rise up again. The question is, how much of a squeeze can they take before reaching the point "to hell with this I'll take what's left of my money and run"?<br />As always, time will tell.head scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.com