tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post755033725602783905..comments2023-09-17T02:33:56.785-05:00Comments on The TSI Trader: BUY TZA @ $35.58John Townsendhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-9149975670036670422011-07-05T23:40:50.454-05:002011-07-05T23:40:50.454-05:00Duke - thanks for your question. I just wrote a ne...Duke - thanks for your question. I just wrote a new post and perhaps it will let you decide for yourself. I hope it does, anyway. For myself, I have not made up my mind.<br /><br />TiKi - The USD troubles me. It looks OK on the chart but everything around it seems to be behaving like it is going to crash.<br /><br />Anon - thanks for sharing your thoughts. I tried my best to explain my thoughts in the new post. At this moment things are about as clear as mud to me but I can see some resolution to that fairly soon, thank heavens.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-65472605183301850132011-07-05T23:04:04.185-05:002011-07-05T23:04:04.185-05:00Hello John,
What are your thoughts on the USD ? I...Hello John,<br /><br />What are your thoughts on the USD ? It's forming a nice pennant.Bounced off the support line and making it's way toward the resistence. Could break either way. I'm betting on the upside.TiKinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-24437287352041441582011-07-05T17:53:51.563-05:002011-07-05T17:53:51.563-05:00We might be really on the wrong side this time. Th...We might be really on the wrong side this time. The problem is not only gold and silver is going up, oil and all the other commodities are all going up. That probably indicates somehow dollar will go down. Today's dollar going up could be fake. The dolloar index line developed a clear negative divergence for both TSI as well as MACD. Does that mean that the dollar most probably will drop further in short term. Dollar cycle could extend to a longer period. That looks normal based on its history.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-804190715897700652011-07-05T17:19:20.752-05:002011-07-05T17:19:20.752-05:00Is the S & P a long or a short?Is the S & P a long or a short?Dukehttp://dukeschowderhouse.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-70204505006587734102011-07-05T13:58:38.090-05:002011-07-05T13:58:38.090-05:00Dan - yes, I hear you. Well, gold and silver kind ...Dan - yes, I hear you. Well, gold and silver kind of have a mind of their own - which is both good and bad. Sometimes these things are short covering rallies and when everyone is cleaned out of their positions the thing falls. Here's a toast to that idea.<br /><br />Anon - Wow, I appreciate that you read my website. Thank you for that. Silver has been on quite a roll today, but it has made its first negative divergence so that is a good sign for ZSL faithful. Problem is that signal is on the 5 and 15 minute charts and well, that doesn't usually mean too much. <br /><br />If silver were to get down to around 35.30 in the next hour or so, it could get interesting (in a favorable way).John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-30841505780705302032011-07-05T13:50:02.179-05:002011-07-05T13:50:02.179-05:00S&P exhausting finally? Portugal might play a ...S&P exhausting finally? Portugal might play a bit on the markets here?<br />Who knows anymore!MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-52496492010279123692011-07-05T13:18:57.754-05:002011-07-05T13:18:57.754-05:00Hi John
thank you so much for your comment on ZSL....Hi John<br />thank you so much for your comment on ZSL. I would appreciate your kind endeavours to update us once the situation clears up and becomes more definite.Unfortunately i do not know how to use TSI but i religiously follow your comments and trades.<br />thanks once again for your kind efforts and updates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-131574566684836242011-07-05T12:52:58.488-05:002011-07-05T12:52:58.488-05:00John,
Thanks for your response. If you take a loo...John,<br /><br />Thanks for your response. If you take a look at the IT correction last year in July we also had a $20+ bounce around July 20th after going through it's 75dmva only to have it roll back over and fall $50 in the next 3 days and mark the final bottom at the 150dmva so there is has very similar similar action the past. Would really hate to sell my positions on a day like today anyways.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532170043439921989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-17512399948284144962011-07-05T12:23:03.401-05:002011-07-05T12:23:03.401-05:00Dan - It's a puzzling situation at the moment,...Dan - It's a puzzling situation at the moment, that's for sure. The dollar has made a swing low today and that suggests its daily cycle concluded yesterday on Day 21 with a bullish right translated top occurring on Day 16. Perfect. One would now expect the dollar, beginning a new cycle, to start to power higher, putting pressure on the precious metals and stock indexes.<br /><br />But gold today also made a swing low and that suggests its Daily cycle concluded 2 days ago on Day 14 with a neutral Day 7 top. One would expect that gold and the precious metals, having begun a new daily cycle, should power higher. And for the past couple of days, they have.<br /><br />But the rub is that I have never seen a gold daily cycle that lasted just 14 days. Either this is a first (unlikely, but I guess anything is possible) or gold's recent strength is simply a fake out.<br /><br />TC and Anon - well, fwiw, I am going to hang on to my double position and see what happens. This is a really unfortunate way to trade - I don't like being in a position under water .... but who does?<br /><br />The TSI suggests to me that the dollar has bottomed. But it is much less clear that either gold or silver has topped. Gold is presently testing its 50 dma for the 3rd time in 5 days. <br /><br />With what I see right now, there is no way I am going to buy more TZL. The situation needs to clear up first.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-40207920889515888412011-07-05T10:00:50.603-05:002011-07-05T10:00:50.603-05:00Hi John
Please give us some insight on ZSL.It has ...Hi John<br />Please give us some insight on ZSL.It has corrected today owing to some strength in silver. Is this correction an opportune chance to buy ZSL???<br />Thanks in advance for your comments/analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-55472502535980349202011-07-05T09:31:44.222-05:002011-07-05T09:31:44.222-05:00Hi John, this bounce on silver now may be the last...Hi John, this bounce on silver now may be the last opportunity for zsl entry?<br /> Thanks a lot for all of your workcomathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13687670139956227213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-24495704854478931592011-07-05T09:30:12.727-05:002011-07-05T09:30:12.727-05:00John,
Curious on your views with the jump that pa...John,<br /><br />Curious on your views with the jump that past couple days. We are still above the 150dmva for gold and above the 200dmva for silver so viewing this from past corrective action, IMO it would be premature to assume the summer doldrums are over but am curious what your seeing.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532170043439921989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-11981855560026329842011-07-04T21:28:22.175-05:002011-07-04T21:28:22.175-05:00Trevor - well, I'll say this: I have at least ...Trevor - well, I'll say this: I have at least 50/50 odds of being right and I'll bet Aubie Baltin does too.<br /><br />Phil - Nothing makes me happier than to hear that someone is successfully using the TSI to beat the market. My congratulations to you and everyone else who is experiencing TSI success!<br /><br />Bruce - I cannot think of a compelling reason to use one over the other. I like the 24 hour a day futures data from TSO, and their programable indicators, but other than that, it's a coin flip. Thanks for saying thanks.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-23791466316168667192011-07-04T15:18:26.508-05:002011-07-04T15:18:26.508-05:00Hi John,
I use thinkorswim but have got freestock...Hi John,<br /><br />I use thinkorswim but have got freestockcharts working on my computer. As far as the TSI is concerned is there any reason to use one charting program over the other? I'm somewhat fluent with TOS and would rather just stay with it rather than have to learn freestockcharts. Thanks for all you do.<br />BruceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-38580816808611456312011-07-04T13:36:04.047-05:002011-07-04T13:36:04.047-05:00John -
Even though QE2 is "officially over,&...John -<br /><br />Even though QE2 is "officially over," the Fed is continuing to purchase Treasuries with the proceeds from "maturing debt it already owns" - up to $300 billion in the next twelve months. <br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/fed-seen-buying-25-billion-a-month-in-treasuries-after-qe2-comes-to-end.html<br /><br />Nothing is really changing short term. My guess is we are going to see the squirrely behavior of the markets continue for some time, with possibly even a short term bull trend like we are seeing now.<br /><br />Best bet is probably short term target trades, much like you have been presenting. Personally, I have continued to make money on the metals (or the inverse ETF's) and miners . . . using the TSI to pick the buy and sell points of course! They're roller coasters, which suits me just fine . . . . "buy wholesale . . . sell retail . . . repeat" . . . . where have I heard that before?!?<br /><br />Thanks again for a really fun blog . . . <br /><br />PhilPhilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-37916584695185601962011-07-03T07:40:21.815-05:002011-07-03T07:40:21.815-05:00Hi John,
Love the site, check in every day to rea...Hi John, <br />Love the site, check in every day to read your thoughts, appreciate your humour too. I see last week Aubie Baltin was calling a 200-300 increase in the Dow due to options expiry. Not sure how relevant this is to recent discussion on the s&p, just thought I’d mention it anyway.<br />Trevor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-46663732681865246282011-07-02T13:55:14.453-05:002011-07-02T13:55:14.453-05:00Loren -- your point is, if I may say so, BRILLIA...Loren -- your point is, if I may say so, BRILLIANT! (Now why didn't I think of that, first?)<br /><br />Absolutely this should be thought of as another form of QE. How could it not?<br /><br />And this line of thinking could go a ways down the road towards explaining the stock market rally - if energy costs are magically and instantly lower, corporate profits will be magically and instantly higher. Duh!<br /><br />Gold has dropped from $1550 to near $1475 in the past 7 sessions. Meanwhile HUI (gold miners index) is literally unchanged at $515. If oil price helps stocks in general, it most definitely helps miners in particular.<br /><br />Apparently the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis thinks there is going to be a whole lot of money printing, giveways, whatever, in our *future*:<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBNS<br /><br />Such honesty is a bit uncharacteristic and makes me wonder what they know that the rest of us do not know.....yet.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-64939178642339419042011-07-02T13:36:34.723-05:002011-07-02T13:36:34.723-05:00Wasn't the release of some of the oil from our...Wasn't the release of some of the oil from our nations "emergency reserve" a form of QE? I suppose we will be replenishing the reserve at a later time at higher oil prices which will be another government policy supporting "big oil".<br />LorenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-46893946272133913792011-07-02T09:50:12.823-05:002011-07-02T09:50:12.823-05:00Douglas - your thinking makes sense to me. Thank ...Douglas - your thinking makes sense to me. Thank you. I am inclined to think the dollar will now linger then bounce off its uptrend line, having completed its daily cycle in 18+ days, and that should put some hesitation in the stock market and send gold to complete its intermediate cycle correction.<br /><br />These are very strange times. Why in the world has the SP-500 rallied up 80 points in 6 days in the face of QE2 ending? That makes absolutely no sense to me. Unless, of course, QE2 is not ending. Hummmm......John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-39435660676219287972011-07-02T04:00:16.695-05:002011-07-02T04:00:16.695-05:00Important to keep in mind that the dollar trades i...Important to keep in mind that the dollar trades inversely to the Euro on which it is largely valued (58%). http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$USD,$xeu<br />The dollar's recent so-called weakness has little to do with the dollar and everything to do with the Greek "solution." The Greek rally (and dollar weakness) is likely to be short lived with the realization it does not solve the Euro's underlying problems. That may explain why the PMs & miners broke away from the dollar yesterday and took a dive.Douglasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-50570317325899721832011-07-01T19:27:41.190-05:002011-07-01T19:27:41.190-05:00Thanks Jeremy for the encouragement and sorry to h...Thanks Jeremy for the encouragement and sorry to hear you are under water on TZA. I think I am -7% at this point and I must say this last couple days was quite a surprise. Judging by the smart money that was selling on strength days ago I guess a few of them are surprised too. <br /><br />The dollar ended up right above its uptrend line and is now due to bottom and begin a new cycle. But maybe it slices right through that uptrend line and continues lower for some more days. That would be bad news.<br /><br />Most of the time these sharp rallies come back to test the 50% retracement which, in our case, would be about where the sp-500 50 dma is located. About TZA = 36.<br /><br />I'm going to give this some more thought and may decide for myself to see what the dollar does the next few days and also assess how the market reactes. It's very possible that I will decide to sit out, try to buy more if I can spot a turning point and go that route.<br /><br />I did not put my life savings on this trade so a drawdown is not pleasant but OK. For sure, "when in doubt, just get out" is a good way to sleep better at night and come back the next time with a little less steak on the table.<br /><br />I hope I helped you Jeremy. Apologies, again.John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-72875241241874552542011-07-01T16:13:48.406-05:002011-07-01T16:13:48.406-05:00John,
I was with you on the TZA buy a couple of d...John,<br /><br />I was with you on the TZA buy a couple of days ago, and took a position. I'm now beginning to think that it's time to sell and chalk it up as a loss. The 10 minute trendline on the TSI broke, but the hourly only came close to breaking it's trend, and still hasn't while attaining even higher TSI numbers. Meanwhile, the TSI on the daily chart is nowhere near breaking its trendline. Nor is it up in nosebleed levels relative to recent action. Based on all of that, it seems to me that the overall trend is up and that in the very short-term there may be a correction in the uptrend. If that's the case, then the best action is to wait for the hourly numbers to work in our favor and sell the ensuing short-term rally and cut our losses. Would love to hear your comments. <br /><br />Thanks, <br />Jeremy<br /><br />P.S.: Love the blog, keep it up!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-58821691792614419052011-07-01T12:01:19.141-05:002011-07-01T12:01:19.141-05:00All indicators pegged in overbought for S&P (S...All indicators pegged in overbought for S&P (SPY) although I know they can remain there for long, given the economic state this might come tumbling down.<br />I can't be convinced that "smart money" would stay in at these levels and past week's action.MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-61443509847034489662011-07-01T11:50:40.214-05:002011-07-01T11:50:40.214-05:00MrMiyagi - I am watching like a crook outside the ...MrMiyagi - I am watching like a crook outside the jewelry store. :)John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-85172053819209436362011-07-01T11:35:39.134-05:002011-07-01T11:35:39.134-05:00Would you buy more TZA at this point John? S&P...Would you buy more TZA at this point John? S&P is more overbought than 3 days ago.MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.com