tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post8516304611588277775..comments2023-09-17T02:33:56.785-05:00Comments on The TSI Trader: Where's the Fire?John Townsendhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-36272957428758487362012-12-23T22:25:02.674-06:002012-12-23T22:25:02.674-06:00Hello Cycles - I do not follow BBT website and wil...Hello Cycles - I do not follow BBT website and will not look at the link you posted because,<br />honestly, I really don't care to debate other people about cycles analysis. My sense is that<br />there is some confusion in people's minds because the techniques of Elliot Wave and Cyclical<br />Analysis are not clearly understood by those discussing them. That is, the concepts used by one<br />system becomes somewhat blurred and applied to the other system while people grapple with making<br />sense of the data. <br /><br />FWIW, I am comfortable with the idea we are completing the first intermediate cycle of the C-wave <br />right now and we should begin a brand new intermediate cycle in the next week or two. If correct, <br />this first intermediate cycle would have presented a couple of new twists not seen before in the <br />entire bull - and at least partially explains the confusion in getting it right as we went along <br />recently. <br /><br />Those two new twists are the introduction of 7 daily cycles nested within a single intermediate cycle. <br />Previously the maximum had been capped at 6 daily cycles. And secondly, the final 3 daily cycles were left translated (if indeed daily cycle 6 which topped on Day 14 and bottomed on 28 can be called that - left <br />translated). There are two previous examples of an intermediate cycle that concluded with two consecutive <br />left translated daily cycles, but 3 is something altogether new.<br /><br />Anyway, cycles or waves or something else, I think we can all agree that we are experiencing a long term<br />parabolic shaped bull market that is far far from over and for those who are patient with their investments<br />the rewards will be really impressive. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-49796191549609786922012-12-23T21:50:36.785-06:002012-12-23T21:50:36.785-06:00Are we in a B wave or is it a C wave still? Also ...Are we in a B wave or is it a C wave still? Also do you follow BBT website as there is lots of talk of B vs C waves. I'm trying to figure out if Gary or Poly is right. <br />http://www.bullbeartalk.com/forum/lounge/448-weekend-dec-22nd-23rd-2012-last-person-alive-3.html<br />cyclesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-38198940403091793562012-12-23T16:17:33.845-06:002012-12-23T16:17:33.845-06:00Super! Consistency is everything.
Merry Christma...Super! Consistency is everything.<br /><br />Merry Christmas.<br /><br />JoeJosephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05860441819485928095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-75647212630589270192012-12-23T10:19:02.886-06:002012-12-23T10:19:02.886-06:00Hi Joe - well, I do not know the rules of Elliot w...Hi Joe - well, I do not know the rules of Elliot wave analysis so I am unable to compare<br />that technique with cycles. I do understand the rules of cycles quite well and I am very<br />pleased to see how well they work. I agree that time frames between cycles is not an exact<br />metric - that is, cycles do not adhere to a strict repetition of this many days or that<br />many weeks in every cycle. Yet there are people out there that try to make cycles work that<br />way - using mathematical formulas, sine waves of differing lengths and other considerations<br />that kinda go over my head. But as I mentioned earlier, there are some hard and fast rules<br />that we use without a fudge factor - notably concerning price behavior - and this provides<br />a non-negotiable core to the analysis. If using these constraints were to render the results<br />inconsistent that would be a problem, but just the opposite seems to be the case to me.<br />John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-67851422471158643002012-12-23T06:24:24.936-06:002012-12-23T06:24:24.936-06:00Hello, John. I really hope you have a great holid...Hello, John. I really hope you have a great holiday. My final thought on the rules of gold cycles:<br />When it comes to any rule involving human behavior, such as cycle rules, I think it is best if we view them like the Italians view their traffic laws: suggestions, not hard and fast. :-) Thus, the cycles are said to be 18-25 weeks, not 22 weeks. I suppose the rule about low points in a cycle must have room for small variances because of the complexity of human behavior.<br /><br />JoeJosephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05860441819485928095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-8901201456388409742012-12-22T22:55:59.293-06:002012-12-22T22:55:59.293-06:00Thanks, again, John. I have no experience in coun...Thanks, again, John. I have no experience in counting cycles, but I would say that when we look at the period from the beginning of October to now, we have an a-b-c correction. I'm not speaking of gold's larger ABCD moves but the typical elliott wave correction of one move down, one move up and one last move down. Often the a leg of the correction equals the c leg. With that understanding it is very possible we have seen the bottom in gold. If that turns out to be true, then I suppose we have either a very extended cycle of a very short one. I'll be interested to see how that turns out.<br /><br />Frankly I'm hoping Gary is right about this being a cycle which is only half done or so. He and his followers need some confidence in the art of cycle interpretation right now.<br /><br />You are a good fellow, John. <br /><br />Merry Christmas, or whatever holiday you celebrate.<br /><br />JoeJosephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05860441819485928095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-29754981286077982142012-12-22T20:22:32.849-06:002012-12-22T20:22:32.849-06:00Hi Joe - I am pleased to know that you are learnin...Hi Joe - I am pleased to know that you are learning a lot that adds meaning and<br />value to your investing considerations. Ultimately I hope to offer thinking that,<br />while not always correct due to my dark crystal ball, does challenge others <br />understandings and promotes confidence in their decisions - whatever they are.<br /><br />I think I understand what you are trying to say about another bottom but the expectation<br />is opposite to your statement - that bottom will be lower not higher that the current low. <br /><br />First off, I would say that you should listen to Gary 10X more than whatever I write.<br />He is the true expert, not I. Having said that, every person perceives reality just a bit<br />differently and I just write what is on my mind - what interests me - something that I have<br />usually given a good amount of research and thought.<br /><br />Personally, I do not think the cycles are distorted by manipulation. I've heard a few arguments<br />regarding this opinion and the arguments do not sway me - probably for the reason that each argument<br />elicits a more compelling explanation for disagreeing in my own mind. <br /><br />The daily cycle count and so on has been a frustrating moving target for all of us. On Day 31 I <br />thought the daily cycle had concluded, but I was entirely incorrect. Assuming Thursday's low of<br />1636 holds then the past daily cycle will have been stretched to 33 days. I seriously doubt this<br />will be the case as I think gold will make a lower low in the upcoming days. <br /><br />There are several reasons I think this but to be brief, it has to do with the thinly traded rally <br />in late August and early September from $1630 - $1775, the daily cycle count would make a little <br />more sense with the previous daily cycle being 28 days, not 33. I don't think there has been an <br />Intermediate Cycle with 7 nested daily cycles - so this IC will be novel if it happens.<br /><br />As for the Dec/May debate I guess I am in the camp that 'the rules is the rules'. And I'll tell you<br />what I have found out.....the rules work pretty darned good just as they are. There have to be a few<br />lines in the sand so the cycles system is less open to interpretation and more given to non-negotiable<br />absolutes that everyone can verify and see for themselves. And since I put it that way, I bet you'll agree.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-7722491656200912862012-12-22T10:43:28.373-06:002012-12-22T10:43:28.373-06:00I don't doubt the bull, but based on simple mo...I don't doubt the bull, but based on simple momentum, trend lines, and virtually identical bottoms in Dec and May, it sure looks to me like the final bottom of the last gold correction didn't come until May (even if it was a tiny bit higher than the December bottom). Just as Gary thinks the cycles are distorted by manipulation in the present time frame, we shouldn't be surprised if some force or another causes the last bottom of a correction to be a tiny bit higher than the 2nd to last bottom.<br /><br />By the way, I thought you disagreed with Gary and believe the recent daily cycle was not on its 11th days but had concluded at 31 days. Is that not still possible? Thanks for your replies. I'm learning a lot. Joe Josephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05860441819485928095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-15881094524414913532012-12-22T09:55:47.003-06:002012-12-22T09:55:47.003-06:00Hi Joe - wow, I guess just by coincidence I was re...Hi Joe - wow, I guess just by coincidence I was reading some of that stuff and decided<br />to write a comment on Gary's blog minutes ago.....which is unusual for me because I try<br />to stay out of the picture over there.<br /><br />Anyway, discussions are good ways for people to try out their ideas and I am totally in<br />favor of that. But there is absolutely no merit to the arguments being ballooned. At least<br />in my opinion. I entirely agree with Gary's analysis and do not see even a hint or possibility<br />that it is flawed.<br /><br />We are now concluding (concluded?) the first C-wave intermediate cycle. It appears to me that the<br />bull has morphed a bit to now include an intermediate cycle capable of using 7 daily cycles nested<br />within its structure, rather than the previous 6 maximum. And, it can include 3 left translated<br />daily cycles at its conclusion, rather than the 2 left translated maximum. <br /><br />You know, when gold was $300 or $500, gold's structure was so much more compact and uncomplicated. But<br />as this large scale parabolic continues on its path upwards, the size of all kinds of measurements<br />grows as well.....and this should not surprise us.<br /><br />People try to explain why gold has been tanking lately. I've read lots of that reasoning and it is <br />probably true that each (fund selling, profit taking, Iran, Central Bank manipulation, etc.) has played <br />a part in the big picture. But whatever the rationale, it really does not matter who gets the credit.<br />My point is that this is a bull market and in the longer term, gold, silver and miners are going to<br />rise much much higher. <br /><br />John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-55700625133257894822012-12-22T06:42:03.075-06:002012-12-22T06:42:03.075-06:00John, I sure hope you continue with your thoughts ...John, I sure hope you continue with your thoughts about the cycle count as this gold cycle develops. Also, I don't know if you read the comments to Gary's posts but I think you will find some of the comments to his December 20 post very interesting. Beginning with comment number 438 there is quite a discussion about whether we are in a B or C wave. My own comment appears at 491, but there are many others worth reading. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this discussion. JoeJosephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05860441819485928095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-86344702554355069772012-12-19T12:41:51.115-06:002012-12-19T12:41:51.115-06:00My friend has an infinitely better understanding o...My friend has an infinitely better understanding of cycles and their<br />inter-relationships than I will ever have. For my part, I find this<br />study of gold/miners fascinating. As I process various ideas that I find<br />interesting I sometimes write (post) about them. I am, as it were, thinking<br />aloud.....but that does not make me some kind of expert or anything.<br /><br />With the benefit of some more free time as it is my lunch hour now, I have<br />put the 5 dates I cited in this post where the dollar and gold were strongly<br />correlated and both in the negative direction. What I see now is that each of<br />these 5 curious correlations occurred during the final daily cycle of an <br />Intermediate Cycle. This also seems to square with my view of things presently.<br /><br />It won't be but a few days from here that it will be crystal clear I was wrong<br />again or correct for a change. If gold should continue to make new lows then my <br />idea of a stretched daily cycle conclusion becomes nonsense and I suppose the <br />next thing I will be wondering, seriously, is whether the previous D-wave really <br />never concluded last December. With the monetary policies around the world openly<br />trying to devalue their currencies so aggressively, one would reasonably think<br />that the precious metals would benefit. However, if the world is about to experience<br />a bout of deflation, as in the Fall of 2008, absolutely nothing will rise in value.<br /><br /><br />John Townsendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243755287314446656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-32011112948490637492012-12-19T12:18:56.906-06:002012-12-19T12:18:56.906-06:00Great work John, I think you´re right about this b...Great work John, I think you´re right about this being an stretched DC but is very possible that we have more pain ahead. I´m looking for the 100wma to be the bottom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2643613788950912206.post-11440235242096196142012-12-19T09:06:21.067-06:002012-12-19T09:06:21.067-06:00Super work, John. I understand you have a friend ...Super work, John. I understand you have a friend who I hope takes encouragement from this. He's been taking a lot of grief lately.<br /><br />JoeJosephhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05860441819485928095noreply@blogger.com