We are currently in C wave #7 of the Gold Secular Bull Market
Each month I will update this table and
accompanying chart.
This update:
July
4 ‘10
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C wave
|
Top Date
|
$ Price
|
This C wave
Time Length
|
Consolidation from
Previous C top
|
Final Top
Above
200 wma
|
Final Top
Above
200 dma
|
1
|
Jun ‘02
|
$330
|
2 mo
|
-
|
18%
|
13.8%
|
2
|
Feb ‘03
|
$388
|
3.5 mo
|
8 mo
|
35%
|
11.6%
|
3
|
Mar ‘04
|
$432
|
8 mo
|
14 mo
|
37%
|
12.4%
|
4
|
Dec ‘04
|
$459
|
3 mo
|
8 mo
|
34%
|
12.0%
|
5
|
May ‘06
|
$725
|
11 mo
|
17 mo
|
74%
|
42.7%
|
6
|
Mar ‘08
|
$1025
|
6.5 mo
|
22.5 mo
|
77%
|
32.9%
|
7
|
(Jul+ ’10)
|
($1210+)
|
(12+ mo)
|
(27.5+ mo)
|
(39%+)
|
(9.7%)
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A few
observations:
1.
The time of consolidation from one C wave peak to the next
influences the height of the parabolic above the 200 wma (i.e. the longer the consolidation the
higher the price)
2.
The current C wave has consolidated longer than any other
(27.5+ months) and has the potential to soar higher above the 200 wma than any previous
C wave.
3.
No C wave has ever concluded in the summer months – which have weak seasonality
4.
No C wave has ever concluded in the fall months – save for Dec ‘04
5. We are currently (at $1210) only 39% above the 200 wma and only 9.7% above the 200 dma
6.
IF the current C wave peaks Dec ’10 at 80% above its 200
wma, price would be around $1710 ($950
wma * 1.80 = $1,710)
7.
IF the current C wave peaks Dec ’10 at 40% above its 200
dma, price would be around $1750 ($1250
sm * 1.40 = $1750)
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