Friday, January 14, 2011

Details, Details, Details - Gold Daily Cycles

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This is going to be one of those posts that if you don't love details, you may as well find something better to read. Seriously.
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A friend from New Zealand emailed me today to ask what the daily cycles of gold were telling me now.  And as I thought his question would be interesting to think about, this post is my detailed obsessive thinking and answer to his question.
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Let me make clear that I do not pretend to be some expert on the cycles of gold.  I think I have an understanding better than the average bear (pardon the pun), but that is as far as I will take it.
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Anyway, cycles, daily or otherwise, begin at a low point, rise, peak and then begin anew when an intraday low point is established within the time frame of the average cycle length.  The next cycle then takes that low point, begins anew, rises, reaches a peak and then descends to a new intraday low point, and so on.
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Gold's daily cycle is usually between 20 and 24 days in length.  It is considered bullish when the highest price occurs later than the midpoint day of the cycle, and bearish when price peaks before the midpoint day.
XGLD
Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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All of these details, unfortunately, are important to understand when considering the chart I have made.  You will notice that we are now completing the sixth daily cycle since the Intermediate cycle began on July 28.  
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The cycles since July 28 have been between 18 and 25 days in length.  With that in mind, today (Friday) was Day 20 of the current daily cycle and that means we should now be near to the final bottom which will lead, however temporarily, to several days of higher prices before the top of the next daily cycle is reached.  
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The reason I do not believe the current daily cycle is already completed is that we have not traded lower than Day 15. (The shortest daily cycle bottom in the last two years was 16 days - 15 days is just not probable at all).  Once the current cycle bottom is accomplished next week by taking out Day 15's 1353 to the downside, I think the current cycle will be completed and a new daily cycle rally should begin.
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You will also notice that our current 6th daily cycle has traded lower than the previous 5th daily cycle low (1353/55 vs 1362). This means the current daily cycle has failed to make a higher low and this phenomenon usually foreshadows an intermediate degree correction.
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Well, I told you this would be a post with a lot of details.....glad I don't have to rewrite it from scratch, to be honest.  
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A little more down action in price that then stops should make for a bullish positive divergence, as the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator registered a -.39 five days ago on the drop to 1353 while the indicator currently reads a more favorable -.31 with price reaching 1355 today.
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OK - time to give my brain a rest.  I am looking for a rebound in gold later next week, how about that?

8 comments:

  1. John
    After the possible low in the daily cycle next week, the next daily cycle low after that, in a further 18 to 25 days, should be the intermediate cycle bottom? Maybe the time to load up!

    Best wishes

    Ian

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  2. Just wanted to say Kudos for calling the bearishness of the 4 hr. chart posted a few weeks back. Though I was still bullish, now we're perhaps headed to the 100dm/a.

    For me, not only is it a wake up call to obey the charts but the psychological willingness to change one's bias in the midst of bullish days.

    Thanks John.

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  3. Ian - when the next daily cycle bottoms it WILL BE (not maybe) time to load up. This is because a new Intermediate cycle will begin - and as gold is in a secular bull market, there will be numerous daily cycles screaming higher, as was the case with our current Intermediate cycle.

    I expect that during the upcoming Intermediate cycle we will witness the conclusion of the massive C wave with the prescribed parabolic conclusion.

    This will be followed by the obligatory D wave that, at some point, falls to retrace fully 50% of the entire C wave. You won't want to stick around for that.

    Marc - you make a very good point. And I will add to it by noting that a characteristic of the most successful professional traders is indeed their ability to entirely change their point of view on the market on the dime, and act on it.

    This calls for a degree of emotional detachment and confidence that is lacking in those they trade against.....the less successful Joe 6 Pack. Its something worth working on and I see you are well on your way. Kudos to you!

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  4. John, could an argument be made for a head and shoulder formation ( LS early NOV, head early DEC and RS early JAN)? If so, wouldn't this push gold a bit lower for a while?

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  5. Anon - I have been quietly watching this H+S take shape for quite some time now and wondering how it would play out. As best as I can tell, the answer to your question is an unequivocal YES.

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  6. Hi John,

    I am under the impression that many highs in silver historally have occured early in the year. So it is my amateur opinion that the PM market should be down until at least the Chineze new year and after that load em up!

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  7. John,

    Awesome work with the cycles, I just had to comment and say thanks for the work! Please give us a heads up on when u think that next intermediate cycle begins! =) really appreciate the site!

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  8. John

    As a newcomer to this site, I am fascinated by the accuracy of the indicator and am slowly getting my head around it.

    In the meantime, kudos and thanks for sharing this.

    Best to you

    John

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