Monday, February 28, 2011

Sold BRD - $1.62 and RIC $5.54

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I sold a couple of positions today.  This first daily chart is of Brigus Gold Corp (BRD) which I sold today at $1.62 for a quick 5.9% gain.
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE


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My other sale today was of a position I have had for some time in Richmont Mines (RIC) for $5.54.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Gold and Silver: Right Up to the Line

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Traders on Friday left gold and silver firmly nudged up against down sloping price trend lines, suggesting a breakout of significant magnitude could be in the offing early next week.
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE
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This first chart is the continuous contract of daily gold (/GC).  The December and early January highs have created the trend line that gold has now spent most of the previous 4 days consolidating just beneath. 
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A little closer look at this consolidation is offered by this second chart of the continuous contract of hourly gold (/GC).  Even the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator was left in suspense for the weekend - as it appeared ready and anxious to bust higher through its down sloping trend line.
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Traders also left for the weekend with silver coiled for a major break.  This hourly chart of the continuous contract of hourly silver (/SI) makes clear that the silver bulls are ready to takeover at a moment's notice.
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Copper, palladium and platinum took a beating early in the week but bounced back sharply by Friday, seemingly in agreement with the price action of gold and silver.  Next week could offer the resumption of strong price appreciation for the precious metals and their miners.  Let us hope!
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.
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Tomorrow's Trades (Today!) has been updated for Monday Feb. 28.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Buy BRD - $1.53 Pre-Market

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This is a daily chart of Brigus Gold Corp (BRD) which I just bought in this morning's pre-market at $1.53. While there is nothing particularly noteworthy such as a True Strength Index or Money Flow Index indicator break out as yet, I do note that the TSI is quite oversold, the stock is well off its December highs, earnings projections are very favorable and price bounced off the 200 dma yesterday.  There appears to be little down side risk at this price so I am regarding this purchase as a value purchase.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record will be updated to reflect this purchase when I have a chance in the next hour.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

What's Going On with Palladium?

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I had an inquiry from a reader about what is going on with Palladium - why was it dropping so sharply of late.  Honestly, I did not know the answer but this evening I did a little digging and think I may have attained a decent understanding.  And after all, I bought PAL just days ago at what now looks like a very poorly timed trade - so I want to know what is going on, as well.
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This chart is the daily continuous contract of the Palladium future (/PA).  One of the first things I was curious to figure out is whether recent price action is anything out of the ordinary.  The conclusion I came to is that Palladium has corrections in the 8-15% range and our current spill, at 11%, is not unusual.....assuming it stops where it is.
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Then I tried to figure out what the "news" was to explain the recent price drop.  You know, there is always an "excuse" or "reason" for these things....lol.   Turns out to be a sensible one.  As a major industrial use of palladium is related to the car industry, the recent spike in the price of crude oil gets the nod.
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OK, so is this issue of the cost of gasoline rising going to send palladium back to $300 an ounce or what?  Are car sales going to fall off a cliff when the price of gasoline reaches a certain price?  I don't know, but I doubt it.  The humongous growth in the sale of cars is taking place in China and India, for one thing.  And palladium, at half the price of platinum should be in increasing demand as the cheaper alternative to platinum usage, should car sales start to become an issue.
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Just a guess, but I think what is going on with palladium is an overdue normal correction.  Nothing more (I hope).
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And just to convince myself my guess could be true, I did a little poking around and I will leave you with these quoted tid-bits, should you be interested in reading a little research.
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"Much of 2010’s huge palladium gains—which saw it peak at $825.50, its highest price in almost 10 years—were due to the demand generated by its increasing use as a substitute for more expensive platinum as an autocatalyst in the catalytic converters of gasoline engines. The Chinese domestic auto industry saw massive growth last year and is expected to grow again this year, although less quickly as the Chinese government is imposing new vehicle sales quotas in Beijing, and possibly other urban centers, to curb pollution and cool an overheating economy".
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"Risks to palladium’s growth include top producer Russia’s palladium stockpiles, which are officially a state secret but are rumored to be at historically low levels due to a widely-quoted statement, from an executive of major palladium firm Norilsk Nickel, that they could be depleted in 2011 or 2012. If the stockpile proves exhausted, palladium prices could swiftly increase, but if Russia surprises the market with an increase in supply, prices could fall. The Russian government would be as eager to take profits from high prices as any other entity, however, so it has little motivation to flood the market".
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"Platinum and palladium shortages are possible in the second half of this year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The shortages may result in price rallies similar to the 40 percent jump in platinum during South Africa’s electricity power cutbacks in 2008, Goldman analyst Eugene King wrote in a report on Feb. 14. Economic growth in the U.S. will tighten balances for both platinum and palladium, leading prices “substantially higher than current levels,” King wrote.



Global palladium demand may outstrip supply by about 560,000 ounces this year".
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"Palladium accounts for 90 percent to 95 percent of precious metals used in gasoline catalysts and platinum is used for about 75 percent in diesel devices, according to Johnson Matthey, which produces a third of the world’s auto-catalysts.
China’s vehicle sales will grow 10 percent to 15 percent this year after jumping 32 percent to 18.06 million vehicles in 2010, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers forecast".
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“If oil comes in to spoil the party, then that is a concern for me,” Wood said. “Obviously political unrest like that affects confidence. Confidence in the world recovery will be dampened.”























Wednesday, February 23, 2011

BUY SFMI at $0.1515 - US Dollar

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Today the junior miners were more restrained than the larger miners and many now sport obvious positive divergences between their price action and the underlying True Strength Index (TSI) indicator.  Usually, but not always, a positive divergence is resolved with an upward movement of price in the immediately following days.
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With that as the basis of my purchase, I added a new position today to Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI) at $0.1515. 
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Click on a chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.
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The US Dollar appears to be making another left translated daily cycle.  Left translated daily cycles are bearish and usually take out the low of the previous cycle.  We are almost there right now.  The movement of the US Dollar is what is driving gold and silver higher and higher. And there appears to be no change in direction other than dollar lower and precious metals higher.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Bought BAA - $3.32

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This is Banro Corporation (BAA) which I bought today at $3.32. 
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.
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I was senseing that the run up in gold and silver over this past 3 day weekend was a bit much without the interference of the NY boyz, and true to form, they came through after the retail traders overextended themselves with the first hour of trading today.  Not to worry, however.  I suspect we will not go sideways for too long, maybe a week or so.  If the past intermediate cycle is any guide, it could take 2-3 weeks to get gold past the previous high of 1432 - just long enough to wear out the weak hearted.  And then it will be time to fasten your safety belts. 

Monday, February 21, 2011

Tomorrow's Trades (Today!)


Scroll down the page to see Tomorrow's Trades (Today!)
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Many readers have requested that I post trade ideas in advance of my purchases and sales.  This page will be an experiment to see whether this kind of information is useful to my valued readers, such as yourself

I will not be able to act on every buy idea I present but will give each trade my full attention from buy to sell - whether or not my money is participating. 
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My goal is to post these buy and sell ideas most evenings before the next day's NYSE trading session. It is my intention to document the outcome of my trade ideas as time progresses. There is now a link to this page just below the link to my TSI Trading record (upper left corner of the homepage).

Come back to this page as often as you like to see how I am doing. Even better, I sincerely hope it makes you a lot of money.
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My daily objective is to provide low-risk high-probability trades of mining sector stocks in a manner that allows one to continually turn their investment capital over profitably in a matter of days to a couple weeks. It is my general practice to use about 10% of my portfolio value on a single trading position.
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On occasion a buy trade may suffer an initial draw down.  As I strongly believe that the mining sector is in a secular bull market, I personally resist selling a mining position at a loss.  This also means that I never use a stop loss order.  But if you prefer, you should limit your draw downs to some acceptable percentage.
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The technical setups I exploit include the use of divergences, trend line breaks and ZERO crossovers.  I use the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator set at (7,4) and Money Flow Index set at (10).  Occasionally I look at other indicators along with these two.  They include the TSV - Time Segmented Volume set at (5) and the Derivative Oscillator set at its default magnification (14 5 3 9).  The software I use is:  FreeStockCharts
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Suggestions and encouragement appreciated,
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John Townsend
tsiTrader@gmail.com
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February 21, 2011

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Tomorrow's Trades (Today!)

Link: See previous trades - detailed spreadsheet data.

Trades for Tue. February 22:
1. Banro Corporation (BAA) / BUY Limit Order $3.32 / SELL GTC Limit Order $3.60 (+8.4%)
2. Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI) / BUY Limit Order $0.160 / SELL GTC Limit Order $0.180 (+12.5%)



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For Sale: 10 Miners Available Today at Discounted Prices

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With gold making it back up to $1400 today and silver blasting right past $33, it's no wonder that most miners are now approaching the price levels they achieved in December. But of course, there are always a group of laggards - stocks still well off their December highs.  This post will show you the 10 leading members of this currently forgotten group.
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My data is taken from an examination of the 150+ mining stocks I follow on a daily basis.  I calculated the percentage current price is lower today than the high achieved sometime in December. These stocks will be presented in order of least oversold to most oversold.
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While I make no claim these stocks are "of the highest quality", I do claim that they will regain their December highs as they are members of this powerful secular bull market for mining stocks. In my opinion, it is just a matter of time.
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The trick to trading this group profitably is really no different than trading the "in favor" miners.  One simply needs to recognize the clues that they are ready to "move" then act on it by taking a long position.
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Anyway, here is our current group of "out of favor" miners.
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE 
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#10 Banro Corporation (BAA)
Discount 25.45%



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#9 Comstock Mining Inc (LODE)
Discount 25.64%



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#8 Brigus Gold Corp (BRD)
Discount 27.35%



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#7 East Asia Minerals (EAIAF)
Discount 27.64%



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#6 Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)
Discount 28.36%



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#5 Santa Fe Gold Corp (SFEG)
Discount 28.98%



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#4 Amarok Resources (AMOK)
Discount 29.48%



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#3 Searchlight Minerals Corp (SRCH)
Discount 29.88%



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#2 Radius Gold Inc (RDUFF)
Discount 30.92%



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#1 Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI)
Discount 42.86%









Friday, February 18, 2011

Sold AXU - $8.40

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I sold my shares of Alexco Resources Corp (AXU) for $8.40 in the after market today.  The stock closed at $8.05 so I am not sure why I was able to get such a high price, but anyway, I did.  Shaking my head wondering what I do not know, if anything. Anyway, I bought this position 2 months ago and was pleased to sell it for a profit today.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading Record has been updated.

Sold ARREF - $1.50

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Today I sold my shares of Amerigo Resources (ARREF) for $1.50. 
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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This profitable sale brings my cumulative total return since beginning this blog 8 months ago to 612.2%.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

BUY PAL at $7.80 in Pre-Market

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I decided to buy North American Palladium (PAL) in this morning's pre-market for $7.80.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

New Highs Overnight: Silver and Palladium

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Silver and Palladium made new highs overnight.  Here is a chart of each. 
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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I think a person could do very well simply buying select miners of either/both these two metals and sitting still for at least a couple months.  The show is just getting started.
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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Gold: Deja Vu All Over Again

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Here is a daily chart of the continuous gold contract (/GC) with a view broad enough to take in the previous intermediate cycle beginning last July 28. For now anyway, it looks to me that gold's current situation is a rerun of the early August time frame.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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I suppose if this plays out in true deja vu fashion we could now expect gold to spend several more weeks inching up to the $1432 level, flattening out as it gets there, taking a deep breath and then once above that price level, accelerating higher with parabolic determination.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Buy SFEG - $0.95

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This is Santa Fe Gold Mining Corp (SFEG) which I bought today for 95 cents.  Not shown on the chart are the 200 and 50 day moving averages which are now at about 99 cents and $1.10 respectively. The stock has been bobbing and weaving for a few days now between 90 cents and a buck.  I just hope to make a fast modest return on my investment but who knows, if gold gets in gear, maybe more.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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Palladium did make a new all time high (last 10 years, that is) and silver is close to also making new highs.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Gold: Looks like it is GAME ON

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Overnight gold broke out of what appears to me to be the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern on this 4 hour chart.  This means we have a higher high again today for the current daily cycle, strongly in favor of being a right translated and bullish daily cycle, also strongly in favor of the notion that 1307 was the bottom of the previous intermediate cycle, and strongly suggesting that it is now GAME ON for gold.
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A common behavior of head and shoulders patterns is to break out, then come back one last time to retest the neck line price area - which appears to be around 1365.  But I certainly will not be holding my breath for that to happen.  This looks really really good.
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Silver, btw, is presently about 40 cents below its all time high and looking very strong.  Palladium has come within about 30 cents of its all time high this morning.  Platinum and copper, like gold, are still well off their all time highs.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Bought ARREF - $1.34

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I decided to buy some shares of one of the junior miners I found to be flying under the radar this past weekend - Amerigo Resources (ARREF) at $1.34. The technical setup is ideal, with fresh trend line breaks of the True Strength Index (TSI) just above ZERO, Money Flow Index (MFI) and the Time Segmented Volume (TSV) indicators.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI trading record has been updated.

Correction re: Gold's Daily Cycles update

Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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This morning I got to looking again at the post I did a couple days ago regarding the current situation with gold's daily cycles.
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The only way I can say this is that I GOT IT WRONG.
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MEGA APOLOGIES, TOO!
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Apparently the high price gold reached on Friday was higher than that of Tuesday.  In other words, the current daily cycle, so far, has peaked on Day 10, not Day 7.  And the important implication here is that the current daily cycle may very well end up being bullishly right translated.  Which also suggests that 1307 was indeed the bottom of the intermediate cycle correction.
Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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I offer a chart of XGLD from FreeStockCharts and $GOLD from StockCharts, with my error identified.  My ThinkorSwim software (/GC) also agrees with the chart from FreeStockCharts.
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Splitting hairs, agreed.  Anyway, this is looking more favorable for the gold bulls after all!

Sunday, February 13, 2011

10 Junior Miners Flying Completely Under the Radar

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As I suspect we may have a couple more weeks before gold and silver find a bottom to the current intermediate cycle, I thought it prudent to begin making a shopping list today of junior miners with exceptional earnings prospects in preparation for the anticipated parabolic C wave conclusion later this spring.  I have put each of these miners in a unique portfolio folder within my FreeStockCharts account for the purposes of keeping an eye on them.
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The data I present here is solely taken from Bill Matlack's most recent Metals & Mining Analysts Ratings & Estimates - Juniors spreadsheet published by Kitco on February 8, 2011. I attempted to corroborate Mr. Matlack's data at a number of sources - Yahoo Finance, Zack's, AOL Finance, MSN Money and Google Finance.  At each of these sources I could not find a single shred of projected earnings data for even one of these stocks, let alone all 10.
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If I am in error, please write me at tsiTrader@gmail.com, as I will be appreciative to update readers (and myself) of any conflicting or corroborating facts publicly available regarding these 10 stocks' analyst projected earnings. Alternatively, if you know of another freely available Internet source of projected earnings data for these companies, please write me.  Your contribution will be appreciated and shared!
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That said, these stocks are apparently (obviously) flying under the radar.  Most have at least doubled in value in the past 12 months......and doubling in price is, for me anyway, the definition of flying.  And not being tracked by many analysts is, for me, the definition of being stealth from the view of analysts, and therefore, mainstream investors.
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I do not own a single one of these stocks.  But I will be watching them for potential trades in the future.  
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Also, most readers are familiar with my use of the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator set at (7,4) and the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator set at (10).  This post also includes a new indicator that recently showed up at my FreeStockCharts account called TSV - Time Segmented Volume.  I have it set to (5) and blackened out, with its 3 day moving average displayed in green.  It is a proprietary indicator that measures the amount of money flowing in or out of a stock - i.e. buying pressure. For now I am using it in much the same manner as the TSI and MFI.  That is, positive divergences and trend line breaks yield BUY signals, as do positive ZERO crossovers.
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OK, on to the 10 junior miners flying completely under the radar.  
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For each I have detailed on their respective chart their 2010 earnings and P/E ratio, their projected 2011 and 2012 earnings and P/E ratio, the size of their stock float in millions of shares, the metal(s) they mine and the country(ies) in which they operate.
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These miners are presented in alphabetical order. 
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Please click on the chart to see the miner's (projected) earnings, PE, stock float, metal(s) mined and country(ies) of operation data.
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1.  AMERIGO RESOURCES (ARREF)
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE
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2. Collosus Minerals (COLUF)
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3. Copper Mountain Mining (CPPMF)
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4. Dynasty Metals & Mining (DMMIF)


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5. Great Panther Silver (GPL)


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6. Labrador Iron Mines (LBRMF)
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7. Mercator Minerals (MLKKF)
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8. Orvana Minerals Corp (ORVMF)
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9. Scorpio Mining Corp (SMNPF)
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10. Wesdome Gold Mines (WDOFF)





























Saturday, February 12, 2011

Gold's Daily Cycles - Current Situation

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What will gold do next?  In a word or two, it's a coin flip.  I'll show you why in just a second, but first some brief background information on gold's daily cycles.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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Cycles are measured in days from one cycle low to the next.  Each cycle peaks on a day that inevitably ends up being recognized as being either left or right of the midpoint day of the cycle.  For example, if a cycle ends up being 21 days, the midpoint day is Day 11.  If the cycle peak is on Day 10 or before, that cycle is called a left-translated cycle.  If the cycle peak is on Day 12 or thereafter, that cycle is called a right-translated cycle.
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A cycle that is right-translated is considered bullish.  Usually, a right-translated cycle will ultimately bottom higher than where it began on Day 1.
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A cycle that is left-translated is considered bearish.  Usually, a left-translated cycle will ultimately bottom lower than where it began on Day 1.

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Looking at our World Gold Index (XGLD) chart above, we make the following observations:

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- The first 5 daily cycles of the intermediate cycle begun July 28 have been right-translated cycles.  Indeed, each of these cycles ranging from 18 - 25 days has bottomed higher than their previous daily cycle bottom.
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- The 6th daily cycle, begun on Dec. 17th was 29 days, peaked on Day 11 (so it was a left-translated daily cycle) and predictably, it bottomed (on January 28) lower that the previous daily cycle.
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Which finally brings us to the current daily cycle. At the moment, it appears to have topped on Day 7 at 1368.70. Day 7 would be the midpoint day for a 13 day cycle. A gold daily cycle of just 13 days is considered highly unlikely.  
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So that brings us to the coin flip I suggested in the first paragraph. If sometime this week gold surpasses 1368.70, that would greatly increase the odds of a right-translated bullish daily cycle, as the top would have occurred after Day 11 or so. This would suggest that the previous cycle low of 1307.70 will hold. And indeed, this cycle bottom could be much much higher than 1307.
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However, if gold does not take out 1368.70, the current cycle will unarguably become a bearish left-translated daily cycle - with high odds that the previous cycle low of 1307.70 will be taken out to the down side within the next couple of weeks. If by chance this scenario is the one that plays out, then I would have no doubt that gold would then begin a new intermediate cycle and we would be, with great certainty, off to the races higher.
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How am I placing my bets?  I'm not.  I have chosen to sit through this draw down, this intermediate cycle conclusion, and hold all positions in the red.  Why?  Because gold is in a secular bull market and holding through any correction with patience will allow me to sell all my positions at a gain, and not a loss.  Could I have 'made more money' selling out when gold was 1420 and re-buying when it was 1310?  Of course.  Frankly, I do not have a crystal ball and I considered it unlikely I was capable of such astute decision-making.  But I did make the decision I thought was astute for me to make - which was to simply sit still.  And to this day I am confident I made a fine decision.



Wednesday, February 9, 2011

New Trading Strategy - First 100 Trades

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I bought to cover the futures contract I sold on the SP-500 several days ago - at 1313.00  As best as I can tell, "It is Coming" should have read "It is Coming, but Not Yet".  I have been proven incorrect in thinking the SP-500 was going to crater from its 5 negative divergences.  Clearly I underestimated the power of the FED's printing press activities.....which are temporarily able to overrun normal corrections with a flood of liquidity.  Anyway, my two 'short the SP-500' with futures contracts has resulted in a net loss of $250.  Ouch.
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I have completed, more or less, the first 100 trades using my new trading strategy.  What follows is a copy of the spreadsheet I use to keep tabs on how the strategy is doing from day to day.  In brief, the buy signals are generated from a positive divergence with respect to the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator and the movement of price.  The sell signal is simply, for this exercise, a 2% limit order.  If price, after buying the open at the market, continues higher than 2% within the first 3 days, the trade is considered a success.
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Anyway, so far 88 trades have completed the 3 day window and the results are in the 85% success range, which I consider a good start.  Of late I have been just throwing in any stock that made a minimal positive divergence without any regard to other rather common sense considerations. And the results of the past few days reveal that this will not return acceptable performance......so back to using my brains a little, I guess.  Truly, it seems nearly impossible to design a strategy that is purely automated and boasts a success rate above 80%.  Any feedback or ideas, suggestions will be appreciated.  tsiTrader@gmail.com



Monday, February 7, 2011

Bought SFMI - $0.1670

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I just remembered that my only purchase last Friday, Silver Falcon Mines (SFMI) at $0.1670, I forgot to post.....so here it is!
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Sold BGLPF $2.41 - Buy JAG $5.61

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The position I took yesterday, as part of my new trading strategy, B2 Gold Corp (BGLPF) I sold today at $2.41 for a quick 3.9% gain. 
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The other position I bought yesterday, as part of my new trading strategy, was Coral Gold Resources (CLHRF) and I was fortunate to sell it at the open today for a gain of 8.1%.
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Click on a chart to ENLARGE




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Near the close I added a position in Jaguar Mining (JAG) at $5.61.  Apparently the market was bent out of shape by Jaguar's surprise announcement to raise C$90M in senior convertible notes. 
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Anyway, there is a positive divergence and gap in price that I hope will work in my favor - and soon.






My TSI Trading record has been updated.

It's Coming.

SPY - May 2010 Mini-Crash
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The mini-crash of the stock market this past May 2010 has been a frequent study of mine.  This morning I am looking at it again and well, I think our current stock market setup is now setup to repeat the fiasco.  In a couple words, 'it's coming'.
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This first daily chart is of the SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) with the focal point as the late April/early May 2010 time frame. Noteworthy were several negative divergences in the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator with respect to continued higher price in the stock market.  When the TSI fell through ZERO and could not reclaim a positive reading within a few days, the crash was cast in concrete before it even happened.
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE
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A secondary indicator, the Money Flow Index (MFI) was also diverging obviously from price and as it fell through and was unable to regain its 50 level, further evidence forewarned days in advance of the actual mini-crash.
SPY - February 2011 - 'It's coming'
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This second daily chart is our current February 2011 SPY setup.  Price is obviously diverging badly from the direction of both indicators.  Of particular note is that the TSI indicator has already spent two days below ZERO and is once again rolling over to make another crossover into the land of the black abyss. The MFI indicator, too, has already made a couple of forays below its 50 reading and the odds are very long it will be able to continue much higher, if at all.










Coral Gold Resources (CLHRF)
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As per my new trading strategy, I had set a limit order to sell yesterday's purchase of Coral Gold Resources (CLHRF) for a 2+% gain.  For some unknown reason there has been a lot of interest today in this stock from the opening bell, as it has been trading in the 90+ cent range all morning. Anyway, my limit order took me out at the open and yielded a nice 8.1% gain, so I am not complaining.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.