Saturday, January 8, 2011

Looking for a Bounce in Miners

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Last week was brutal for mining stocks as gold plummeted some $72 before coming to rest at $1,368 and a loss of $54 for the week.  I think the bounce off Friday morning's $1,352 low should continue into the early part of this upcoming week.
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This chart, a 4 hour snap of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), shows us a True Strength Index (TSI) indicator reading that is severely oversold and likely to foreshadow a bounce in price. The Derivative Oscillator is shown with the actual oscillator blackened out and both a 1 and 3 period moving average of the oscillator in purple and blue. The indicator is curling upwards and suggests a bounce should be in the offing.
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This chart was made using the software freely available at FreeStockCharts.
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The second chart, a daily of the Gold Bugs Index (HUI), was made with the software available at ThinkorSwim.  
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This chart features a cool custom indicator made for me by Eric Purdy of ThinkScripter. The indicator measures the TSI of the HUI index, but additionally the TSI reading for each of the 15 individual mining stocks that comprise the HUI index.
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We can see that the TSI, for both the HUI index and the cluster of mining stocks, are more oversold than any time in the past 5 months.  
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After we get the bounce, then what?  Good question.
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As usual, the answer to that question has something to do with what the US Dollar decides to do next.  

2 comments:

  1. Can U give any comment if the bounce in miner, what effect to the world gold index (XGLD)?

    Thanks

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  2. Harizal - generally, the miners follow the price of gold and are not nearly as positively correlated with the stock market.

    ReplyDelete