Looks Like the Bulls Are Going to Win. (But Maybe Not).

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As the markets await the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, the bulls were out dancing in the street today - pushing gold and silver right up to the edge of an out and out breakout, and sending the S&P 500 soaring up some 17 points with a mighty bounce off its 200 dma. The HUI gold miners index rejoiced as well, matching the S&P's 17 point route, and convincingly offered their stamp of approval to the recent strength in both gold and silver.
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It looks to me like the bulls are going to win this time. They finally have a bottom in place that is the last word and it's time to get long and strong.
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Hallelujah!
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But what's that? I see dark clouds on the horizon in the other direction.  And nobody is looking over that way.
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Ah, it's probably nothing.  Forget about it. Who cares anyway?  This deal is done. The bulls have this market finally by its balls.
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Yes, but, these clouds don't look too friendly. Shouldn't we at least tell the others so they can decide for themselves what to make of it? to decide if the clouds are really a threat to our confidence or not?
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OK, fine.  Go ahead. So them your silly charts and they can do as they please.  Satisfied?
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Yes, sir.  Just two 'silly' charts and then I will thank you for listening.
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Here goes. 

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This first daily chart is of the SP-500 from the latter part of January to the present day. The numbers on the chart are data I gleaned from the Wall Street Journal. Each number represents a significant day when the big money players were selling on the strength of an up day. The number itself represents the net number of millions of dollars they took out of the market on that day.
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Here is a link if you wish to investigate this further some time:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
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Click on either chart to ENLARGE
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What's interesting is to observe first, how impressively accurate this 'smart money' is at selling just before the top. I have no clue why they were so anxious to sell right about the time their taxes were due (April 15), maybe something to do with the quarter ending, I have no clue.  But except for that, these guys really are, well, 'smart money'.
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But what I don't understand is, for the last 6 weeks they did not sell into strength even once. And now that we are at this 'so-called bottom', they are selling every single rally that pops up. Hmmmm....   I would think they would be buying on weakness now, not selling on strength. You think these smart guys think the cyclical bull market for stocks is over? That it's time to get out because this is about as high as the market is going to get for a long long time?

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And here is the other dark cloud on the horizon I doubt few are aware of. This is a daily chart of TICK. Each day stocks go up and down, of course, and this indicator called TICK counts the number of stocks on the NYSE that are rising and compares that with the number of stocks that are falling in price. A rising TICK value is bullish and suggests the index of stocks will, with increasing momentum, continue to rise. And of course, a falling TICK value is bearish.
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Everything is just great except that when you throw an apple up in the air, there comes a moment in time when the upward momentum expires, the apple is literally not moving higher or lower, and then gravity does the rest.  And you know what that means.
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So, look at the chart and see what you think.
(I think the TSI is telling us that momentum is nose bleed high and going to have to fall).
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God help us all, bulls and bears alike.
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Oh, and THANK YOU for listening.