Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Gold - Has It Bottomed?
Like everyone else I am hoping to time the bottom of this vicious drop in the price of gold with a long trade - however short lived - in a miner ETF. Today was day 17 of a daily cycle that usually ranges from 20-28 days. Using the 'normal' daily cycle metric would suggest we are getting close to a bottom. And if the cycle is short this time, perhaps we are already there. Indeed, it is true that daily cycles that include precipitous falls are often shortened - explained perhaps by human nature's inability to stand pain as long as it tolerates incredible gains.
In any event, the current situation is a test of faith for me. That is, the four hour cycle is presently on bar 24 and the data suggests that this little cycle - painful as it is - should endure to bar 40 or thereabouts. If true, then gold has not bottomed just yet. It appears that Friday would be a reasonable time for gold to bottom - somewhere around bars 34 - 37 - shortened from the expected 40 bars due to the extreme decline we have had in price of late.
Anyway, I am going to try to buy on Friday. If I miss the bottom then shucks. And if I catch it about right then I will have a little more confidence in this four hour cycle. Stay tuned.