Thursday, September 13, 2012

SOLD DUST @ $30.20

Well, this was a crazy day.

I sold my position in Direxion's Gold Miner BEAR 3X ETF DUST in the pre-market this morning at $30.20. I registered a gain but with the transaction fees it was probably not even that.

My TSI Trading record has been updated.

Lately I have been reflective about my trading record, thinking about my success and my failures. And the conclusion I have been coming to is that I do quite well on short term trades, but tend to get clobbered by trades that I hold for more than a couple weeks, if that.

For example, this DUST purchase on Monday was timed very well and by the end of the day it showed a gain of around 5%. I saw that the hourly TSI (7,4) was impossibly strung out and would absolutely need to fall. But I did not sell.

Then yesterday, Wednesday, for some reason that I still have not had time nor the interest to figure out, DUST took off and at one point my position showed a gain of around 12%. I could have sold, but I didn't......and as the day wore on nearly all of the gain evaporated.

When I looked at things before going to work this morning I saw my gain inching smaller and smaller in the pre-market. I felt like my odds at that point were not what I wanted them to be. In fact, I told myself that from here on, with the Fed announcement in a matter of hours, to keep the position would be akin to being a gambler with only hope and luck going for me.

So I sold.

And sure enough, within the next hour or two DUST rocketed higher - without me. But I knew why I sold, and that whatever the darned thing does now does not really concern me.

Then many hours later the roll of the dice was in with the Fed announcement and DUST dropped and dropped and dropped - without me. Again, really not my concern what the thing does.

Anyway, the bottom line for me is that I need to play my game as best as I can. And this seems to mean that once too much time elapses and I am still in the trade, the very reason I entered becomes long gone. And when i find myself in this situation I need to get out. 

And that is exactly what I did today.


  1. John,
    Do you see DUST in single digit on this run, as NUGT did 2 months ago?

  2. John, You did the right thing getting out IMO. It could have gone either way at 12:30 and that's just a roll of the dice. Bruce

  3. Thanks Bruce - it was a crap shot and I had no idea what would happen.

    DUST in single digits? I'm guessing we get a little bounce back sometime this week.
    For longer term, wow, I guess it's possible. I still am having a really hard time
    absorbing Ben's announcement and the implications. Seems insane to me.

    I have often wondered how these parabolic price movements occur - as we are gradually
    seeing in gold over the past 11 years. And I guess I am finding out that the way
    they happen is with the incredibly stupid decisions that individuals *with power* make
    over and over again - and on a grander scale each time. I ask myself, why is gold
    continuing to form this perfectly shaped long term parabola. Then I hear Ben's policy
    decisions and it all makes complete sense - though I still shake my head in amazement.