Monday, December 31, 2012

BUY CGR @ $0.53

Claude Resources Inc. (CGR) when are you going to get your *** in gear? Yes, I bought more shares of CGR earlier this morning at 53 cents a pop. It's not that I woke up today planning to buy more. I have more than enough of this stuff already. But I looked at the daily True Strength Index (TSI) (7,4) and saw something rather odd - it was a double trend line break BUY signal. 

So I flashed through all my locations to see if there was any news, any change in projected earnings, any company filings, anything whatsoever to raise a yellow flag.



So then I looked at CGR on the weekly chart with the TSI (7,4) and wondered again if I was seeing things. After the open today price was trading at around .525 - .53 and the weekly TSI was showing something like -0.91. Wow, I thought. That is an extreme reading - incredibly extreme considering this is a weekly chart, not a daily!

I tried again to find any reason in the world to not buy more. Nothing turned up. So I started watching the stock and thinking, thinking, thinking. An elephant with a kazillion shares was sitting on the ask at 53 cents - holding a lid on price.

Then, the elephant just kinda disappeared. I've always wondered about these things and have developed a theory. Heaven only knows if it is an absolutely insane theory - maybe someone can let me know.

Anyway, if someone owns a kazillion shares of some small miner and wants to bleed all the blood they can out of the remaining shares that may be out there, what better way to discourage competition from other buyers than sit their fat *** on the ask and tell all interested buyers to take a hike. It's a's a way to intimidate and discourage buyers. 

Would you be encouraged to buy when someone sitting with a kazillion more shares than you is posturing to dump their load right then and there? Talk about 'look out below'.

And it could even be a good tactic to scare little sellers into selling their shares before the elephant decides to sit down on everyone and smash the price down another 10%. 

Anyway, and as I was saying, the elephant just kinda disappeared. That was my cue to buy, and that I did.

Here is a daily chart of CGR:

And here is a weekly chart of CGR:

My TSI Trading record has been updated.

I see the elephant has now parked at 55.5 cents but has been hit for 100k shares since I last looked. Tisk, tisk, tisk. If my theory is correct that may not have been what the elephant had in mind. Maybe the vultures are circling overhead? 

Whatever - it's all a game. But I also think it's just a matter of time before the rules of the game get reversed in my favor.

Happy New Year's everyone!



  1. John I was reading your C wave on gold. What do you think about leverage up with options and NUGT to play the guaranteed rise?

    I see this as a can't lose trade.

  2. Hi Golden,

    Some of your various discriptive words make me queasy - 'guaranteed', 'can't lose'
    and 'options'. I know these thoughts and concepts well, having taken the short end
    of the stick *personally* on all of them.

    And maybe that's just me - and everyone else always does really well with these no-brainer
    setups. I just have not been so fortunate.

    But to respond to your original question, yes, I think the timing right now is extremely
    good for positions long precious metals or their miners. In fact, I think this an *ideal*
    point of entry, as we are beginning (or perhaps 'have begun') the second intermediate cycle
    of a new C-wave.

    Go get'em Tiger!

  3. John, Were you using level 9 or time and sales to see what the elephant was doing? Or something else? Thanks and Happy New Year! Bruce

  4. Thanks Bruce - Happy New Year to you, as well!

    Using TOS I activate the 'Active Trader' button
    to see what the elephant is holding. When I want
    to see if it is one big elephant or a gang of
    smaller and the identity of their 'hoods' I activate
    the 'Level II' button. Both appear in a column along
    the right side of the charting screen.
    Happy hunting!

  5. Are you concerned that the TSI might misbehave with a penny stock?

    Also, regarding your comment on the 40 bar cycle on gold's 4 hr chart: I have been following that cycle. Lately it's been running long. Cycles in the 50's back to back, for example, and many cycles in the 50's. We just had one of the shorter ones of late, only 31 bars. But the 3 cycles prior to that one were 53, 41, and 55 bars (so we were overdue for a short one). I have wondered whether a cycle like that can morph into a longer cycle (in which case cycles in the 50's will be the norm going forward) or whether that series of long cycles (which has been the case for several weeks now) is just an aberration and it will eventually get back to its normal cyclical pattern.

  6. PimaCanyon - I'm not sure how to answer your penny stock question because I'm
    not sure what your concern is. I don't think the TSI signals are any less credible
    simply because a stock is a 'penny stock'. I do think the liquidity of a stock,
    specifically a lack of liquidity, will indeed play a factor in the quality of the
    TSI signals.

    I, too, have been musing about the 4 hour cycles of gold lately and have observed
    what you have written. I don't think anyone has really studied this far enough back
    to know for sure what is 'normal'. My impression is that this cycle metric is more
    volatile and somewhat less predictable than the daily cycle. That is, the pattern
    of consecutive right translated 4 hour cycles concluding with a left translated cycle
    at the end of every daily cycle may not always hold, and so on. But I would love to
    see the data for the past 5 years or so, wouldn't you?

  7. John - Just for fun, I looked at weekly charts of my few miners and my few etf bullion stocks. I am concerned. I can see possible head and shoulders and/or other top formations, particularly in the miners. The bullions look more like consolidation patterns. I have read many, many articles regarding how the miners are going to take off. Better buy now and hold on! They were saying that several months ago. Isn't that when the big boys are quietly selling their positions to us peons? I have only come across two articles that advise caution. This really concerns me. Of course, because I am about ready to throw in the towel, it's probably at the bottom. I'm sure that if I were to sell, it would be the time to buy. Isn't that the way it works?

  8. Hi Loren - I don't know if you have read and then thought about many of my recent posts,
    but they, I hope, have been written to not only express my present optimism but also gently explain
    why this is a great time to buy and a really lousy time to sell.

    Last late September to early October was the peak of gold's first C-wave intermediate cycle.
    That was a few months ago, indeed. And in a post not so far back I openly mocked myself for any
    new positions I initiated at *that time* on the argument that we were then already in the 4th daily
    cycle and if I had been thinking about my trading game, which I admitted I was not, that was
    a very low odds time to expect much more. If anything, it was indeed the perfect time to sell.

    But that was then, and this is now. Now we have begun the first daily cycle of a new intermediate
    cycle. Tax selling is over. The government has once again proven that it is dysfunctional and
    unable to take any medicine for its overspending and massive debt problem. Loren, if you have a
    few charts with these head and shoulders or other patterns forming then please, let's have a look
    at them. If interested, give me some ticker symbols.