Thursday, April 25, 2013

Miners - True Strength Index (TSI) BUY Signals by the Dozens


We have all waited far too long for this day, but it finally got here. My goodness! I have never seen this many True Strength Index (TSI) indicator BUY signals in the mining sector in my life. Hallelujah!!!

I've ripped through my portfolio of 150 or so miners to show you what I am talking about with this post. What follows is a list of 92 miners that have a TSI BUY signal with the close of today's trade. Some have a single BUY signal, most have two BUY signals and yes, there are even a handful with three BUY signals. Holy cow!

I'll give you a quick refresher course on the TSI BUY signals using a chart to demonstrate each, then turn you loose on the huge list that follows.

The trend line break (TLB) BUY signal is given by a descending straight line that is connected by the TSI indicator's peaks and when it slams into a rising TSI the momentum has shifted from southward to northward.

The ZERO crossover (ZC) BUY signal occurs when the TSI indicator crosses up through the ZERO line, from negative readings to positive readings. When the TSI is rising above ZERO, price is always rising. 

The positive divergence (PD) BUY signal is given when the TSI makes a higher low while the corresponding price lows make a lower low. This suggests that price has 'exaggerated' too far to the downside and is not in line with the actual momentum. 


Click on the chart to ENLARGE
The trend line break (TLB) BUY signal is in white above, the ZERO crossover (ZC) is in gold and the positive divergence (PD) is green.

Enjoy this scenery - it's a welcomed change! 

Thurs.
4/25/13
 TLB - Trend Line Break
 ZC - Zero Crossover
 PD - Positive Divergence
Ticker
TSI
Symbol
         DAILY CHART - TSI (7,4)
BUY Signal(s)
    
 Last Price
Percent Change
Company Name
1
AAU
      1.72
+7.62%
Almaden Minerals Ltd
TLB
2
ABX
    19.48
+3.01%
Barrick Gold Corp
TLB
3
AEM
    33.52
+0.81%
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd
TLB
4
AG
    12.96
+7.46%
First Majestic Silver Corp
TLB, PD
5
AKG
     2.69
+3.06%
Asanko Gold Inc
TLB, ZC, PD
6
ANV
   11.79
+2.34%
Allied Nevada Gold Corp
TLB
7
ARNGF
     6.66
+7.85%
Argonaut Gold Ltd
TLB, ZC
8
AU
   19.48
+0.67%
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd
TLB, PD
9
AUMN
     1.79
+2.87%
Golden Minerals Co
TLB
11
AUQ
     5.16
+3.61%
Aurico Gold Inc
TLB
12
AUY
  12.55
+1.77%
Yamana Gold Inc
TLB, ZC
13
AXU
    2.19
+5.29%
Alexco Resource Corp
TLB, PD
14
AZC
    2.50
+3.31%
Augusta Resource Corp
TLB, ZC, PD
15
AZK
    4.23
+1.20%
Auizon Mines Ltd
ZC
16
BAA
   1.28
+0.79%
Banro Corporation
TLB, ZC
17
BCEKF
   2.59
+2.78%
Bear Creek Mining Corp
TLB
18
BGLPF
   2.56
+3.58%
B2 Gold Corp
TLB, ZC
19
BRD
   0.66
+7.70%
Brigus Gold Corp
TLB, ZC
20
BVN
 21.60
-0.60%
Compania De Minas Buena
TLB
21
CDE
 15.60
+2.83%
Coeur D'alene Mines Corp
TLB, ZC
22
CDY
  0.20
+5.26%
Cardero Resources
TLB, ZC
23
CELTF
  0.69
+15.23%
Centamin Egypt Ltd
TLB, ZC, PD
24
CGR
  0.31
+4.07%
Claude Resources Inc
TLB, PD
25
COLUF
  2.45
+8.42%
Colossus Minerals
TLB, ZC
26
CROCF
  0.23
+10.00%
Crocodile Gold Corp
TLB, ZC
27
DGP
39.17
+5.63%
DB Double Gold Long ETN
TLB, ZC
28
DPMLF
  6.34
+1.81%
Dundee Precious Metals
TLB
29
DRD
  6.86
+0.44%
DRD Gold Ltd ADR
TLB, ZC
30
EGI
  0.30
+3.93%
Entrée Gold Inc
TLB, ZC
31
EGO
  7.59
+0.53%
Eldorado Gold Corporation
TLB, ZC
32
EXK
  5.10
+3.87%
Endeavour Silver Corp
TLB
33
GDX
30.61
+1.26%
Market Vectors Gold
TLB, ZC
34
GDXJ
12.83
+1.58%
Market Vect Junior Gold 
TLB
35
GFI
  7.63
+4.66%
Gold Fields Ltd ADR
TLB, ZC
36
GG
30.02
+2.01%
GoldCorp Inc
TLB, ZC
37
GLD
141.76
+2.45%
SPDR Gold Trust ETF
TLB, ZC
38
GLDX
  4.27
+4.15%
Global X Gold Explorers
TLB
39
GOLD
81.43
+1.55%
Randgold Resources Ltd
TLB, ZC
40
GORO
10.20
+1.80%
Gold Resource Corp
TLB, ZC
42
GPL
  1.13
+10.78%
Great Panther Silver
TLB, ZC, PD
43
GSS
   1.03
+1.98%
Golden Star Resources
TLB
44
GUYFF
  1.95
+4.54%
Guyana Goldfield New
TLB, ZC
45
HL
  3.45
+0.58%
Hecla Mining Co
TLB, ZC, PD
46
HMY
  4.91
-6.02%
Harmony Gold Mining Co
TLB
48
IAG
   5.33
+0.19%
Iamgold Corp
TLB
49
ISVLF
   0.70
+6.53%
Impact Silver Corp
TLB, PD
50
JAG
   0.45
+8.72%
Jaguar Mining Inc
TLB, PD
51
KGC
  5.67
+0.18%
Kinross Gold Corp
TLB
52
KGILF
   3.47
+12.38%
Kirkland Lake Gold
TLB, ZC
53
KLNDF
  1.22
+6.68%
Klondex Mines Ltd
ZC
54
MDW
   0.99
+0.52%
Midway Gold Corp
TLB
55
MGH
   0.30
+3.11%
Minco Gold Corp
TLB, ZC
56
MUX
   2.12
+1.68%
McEwen Mining Corp
TLB, ZC, PD
57
MVG
   7.79
+6.42%
Mag Silver Corp
TLB, ZC
58
NAK
  2.71
+5.86%
Northern Dynasty Minerals
TLB, ZC
59
NCMGY
17.51
+0.86%
Newcrest Mining Ltd
TLB
60
NEM
34.40
+0.22%
Newmont Mining Corp
TLB
61
NG
   2.48
+3.66%
NovaGold Resource Inc
TLB
62
NGD
   7.89
+2.94%
New Gold Inc
TLB, ZC
63
NSU
   3.72
+1.64%
Nevsun Resources Ltd
TLB, ZC
64
NUGT
13.27
+3.27%
Direxion Gold Miners 3X
TLB
65
OSKFF
  4.13
+4.39%
Osisko Mining Corp
TLB
66
PGM
32.85
+3.40%
iPath Platinum ETN
TLB
67
PIRGF
   2.26
+15.30%
Premier Gold Mines
TLB, ZC
68
PTQMF
   0.39
-0.39%
Petaquilla Minerals Ltd
TLB, ZC
69
RBY
  1.82
+12.41%
Rubicon Minerals Corp
TLB, ZC, PD
70
RGLD
56.12
+3.91%
Royal Gold Inc
TLB, ZC
71
RIC
  2.09
+4.40%
Richmont Mines Inc
TLB
72
RTRAF
  0.49
+14.46%
Romarco Minerals Inc New
TLB
73
RVM
   1.39
0.00%
Revette Minerals Inc
TLB
74
SEMFF
  1.86
+7.51%
Semafo Inc
TLB, ZC, PD
75
SGCNF
  0.17
+11.28%
Sunridge Gold Corp
TLB, ZC
76
SGRCF
   0.22
+7.37%
San Gold Corp
TLB, ZC
77
SGSVF
   1.25
+2.95%
Sabina G & s
TLB
78
SIL
15.13
+3.35%
Global X Silver Miners ETF
TLB, ZC
79
SLW
24.33
+1.77%
Silver Wheaton Corp
TLB
80
SMNPF
   0.49
+8.84%
Scorpio Mining Corp
TLB, PD
81
SSRI
  7.37
+3.08%
Silver Standard Resource
TLB
82
SVLC
   2.22
+9.36%
Silvercrest Mines Inc
TLB, ZC
83
SVM
  3.07
+8.87%
Silvercorp Metals Inc
TLB, ZC
84
SWC
11.72
+1.56%
Stillwater Mining Corp
TLB, ZC
85
TC
   2.90
+14.13%
Thompson Creek Metals
TLB, ZC, PD
86
TCK
26.42
+1.15%
Teck Resources Ltd
ZC
87
TGB
  2.23
+6.19%
Taesko Mines Ltd
TLB
88
THM
  1.01
+4.12%
International Tower Hills
TLB
89
TRQ
   6.97
+2.05%
Turquoise Hill Resources
TLB, ZC
90
TRX
  2.95
+2.08%
Tanzanian Royalty Expl
TLB, ZC
91
USGIF
  0.97
+15.48%
US Silver and Gold Corp
TLB
92
VGZ
  1.66
+0.61%
Vista Gold Corp
TLB, ZC

17 comments:

  1. Nice job John! Gold stocks are finally waking up! Gold back over $1500 tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  2. John, Good news. Hope the momentum lasts. Thanks, Bruce

    ReplyDelete
  3. When the stars are aligned like they are with TLB , ZC and PD you cant lose. Here come the 10 baggers.
    Speaking of which....I notice that 10 of the stocks listed had a 10% or > change on the 25.4.13. May be indicative of how undervalued they were ( and still are). More of the same to be expected in the near future.
    I have a feeling that things will move quite quickly over the course of the next week.
    The physical shortage is now causing panic. This will in turn bring greater attention to the miners....the last bastion of redemption.
    Your analysis and the fundamentals John....oh we know its a good thing.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Despite all the data, today the $HUI fell off 3.57%, and the $BPGDM rests at a devilish 6.66.

    Miners generally lead gold out of cycle lows, yet they continue to wobble. I just don't get it.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Looks like the TSI has turned down at the close creating a hidden divergence. For EW followers also looks like a well formed wave 4 at the low of wave 1. Projections using rsi and this hidden divergence point to a target for AKG of around 1.85 should the slide down continue. I hope I am wrong!

    ReplyDelete
  6. BBclub
    Unfortunately, none of this takes into account the ongoing loss of capital the juniors are experiencing. The precious metals juniors general Capitulation is just getting started. Much more downward pressure is imminent. Patience is advised.Mike

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mike - I clearly recall what was touted as the problem for juniors in the 2008 melt down. It was what I recall continuously reading 'the freezing of credit'. That is, small companies had no access to get loans for working capital. The sky was falling and God Himself could not stop it - or so most thought.

    In this 2013 market the explanation is generally that miners costs are rising, gold's price is falling, profit margins are somewhere between compressed and hopelessly non-existent, and kazillions of bankruptcies are just a matter of time.

    All of this amounts to a very logical and reasonable analysis. And I most definitely agree patience is advised.

    This analysis also speaks to the risks of trying to short term trade this group of stocks, in my opinion. I think one either believes in gold's secular bull market, buys solid value as best they can discern and sit tight, or one trades with an itchy finger on the trigger and says a few prayers.

    In 2008 I did both strategies and to some extent I got lucky. I bought a miner trading at 10% of book value and held on for dear life. One morning a few short weeks later I woke up to find it trading 300% higher (another company bought my company)and I immediately sold. (Too bad because a couple of years later my gain would have been 2500%, not 300%).

    Another miner I had bought months and months earlier I held, though when it bottomed it was nearly a 100% loss....I continued to hold and months after it bottomed I sold - taking a 50% loss. If I had held a full year longer after my exit I could have realized a 100% gain. And if, by chance, I had had the guts to buy more of this miner at the bottom - when I was looking at a nearly 100% wipeout - my gain in a couple of years could have exceeded 4000%.

    Both of these experiences of trading miners in 2008 are my real life experiences and have given me my resolve, at present, to just be patient.

    I sincerely hope readers who believe in the gold secular bull will take my thoughts into consideration when tempted to hit the sell button to end the pain. The rationalizations I offered in the first two paragraphs above are reasonable. I know that. But I also know that markets go from one incredible extreme to another. What seems like a big deal today will not even be on the radar screen a year or two later. The time to have guts is when absolutely everything 'short term reasonable' is agreed by literally everyone. Then, do the opposite and twiddle your thumbs. Odds are in your favor, if you are patient.



    ReplyDelete
  8. Liquid Motion - if you are interested in doing a little reading, here are a few interesting links for today:

    1. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/26/j-p-morgan-has-sold-2-mln-ounces-of-comex-gold-since-feb-says-blogger-mark-mchugh/

    2. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4673/if

    3. http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/04/gold-legacy-cot-stunner-.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. John,
    Thanks for the links. Nice reads which support the thesis of the gold price take down and the obvious short covering (absolutely stunning).
    Of particular interest is the action from JPM..now that is breathtaking and one simply has to ask why ?
    Although, what concerns me is the accuracy of the COT data. When you consider who prepares this information and the purpose that it is fit for, it makes one wonder about the legitamacy/integrity.

    If we believe in the fact that the price of the metals are absurdly low (given they are a product of the futures paper market), then at what price do we reasonably expect it to be at when we consider it to be fully priced ?
    The question is rhetorical because Gold and Silver have no measuring stick..no metric (other than fiat currency)to put a suitable price on it. It becomes limitless. Perhaps the adoption of gold in forming a basket of currencies in the new paradigm of world currencies would avert a buble formation and avoid an inevitable bust scenario.

    So getting back to the case in point...we are now set up for the comms to take a further beating as the central banks and their buddies at the bullion banks, fill up their vaults and reverse what they did on the downside, and apply the same principles now on the upswing. Price suppression will turn the market into an accumulation phase. It will again be as (if not more) breathtaking to watch. Watch for the panic to take hold.

    I firmly concur with your analysis about the underlying and inherent value in miners. It has been a difficult 18 months to bear but as you so correctly remind us ...patience will win (provided you remain committed to the bull). I am and continue to be heavily overweight the sector and physical. This period of dramatic price suppression in both the price of metals and of miners has been an absolute gift, one which I could not resist by adding to my existing portfolio. Should it eventuate again, I will repeat the process. Its the hardest decision I've made in a long time to buy (stocks)when all are running to the exits. The physical (buying)really is a no brainer.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Liquid Motion - thanks for writing a number of very interesting thoughts. I would enjoy sharing in your dialog with the following thoughts:

    I don't see that the commercials are taking, or subject to the specter of 'further taking' a beating from the forces shorting the gold market. For starters, gold has already retraced 50% of 'the beating' in very short order and may well retrace it entirely in the near future.

    Beyond that, the commercials may well have generally decided that this is their strategic opportunity to screw the shorts kinda *once and for all*. The shorts now provide more rally fuel than ever seen before historically and on the subject of short squeezes, this is about as good as it gets. The shorts do not have the bullion to back up their positions and are, as always, bluffing. They are such a nuisance to the free market that it would not surprise me if the commercials see their opportunity to strike their match and watch their paper burn. Seriously.

    I found your thought about the possible use of gold supporting a basket of currencies as a means to avert a bubble formation in gold interesting. And I will easily concede my following thoughts in response are just my musings, as I don't know too much about this subject. But here goes:

    Depressions occur when debt is no longer serviceable. An individual goes bankrupt when his income no longer can sustain his house payments and credit card minimum payments, for example. Entire nations can also go bankrupt, though the process is slowed by their ability to 'create money' out of thin air to continue servicing their debt.

    The resolution of bankruptcy is the complete forgiveness of incurred debt. This leaves an individual with quite literally just the shirt on their back, no assets and no debts. Just the opportunity to start over from square one....with nothing.

    In the case of currencies, the squaring of all accumulated debt by the issuer (thereby resolving the bankruptcy issue) would require that the currency be backed by something of at least equal value to the accumulated debts. Obviously, as the accumulated debts are horrendous, the value of this object that backs the currency would have to be horrendous, as well.

    Backing currency with gold has the known advantage that there is a finite amount of gold in existence. Further, it cannot be mined or found in such abundance that the finite gold in existence is easily or quickly diluted. And of course, gold cannot be electronically printed.

    So where is all this going?

    Well, my thought is that in order to straighten out the impossible debt service issue that inevitably leads to bankruptcy and depression, possibly on a world-wide scale, if gold is used to back the 'currency of the future' then it will instantaneously be valued appropriately to solve these issues. Which is also to suggest that gold would be valued at $1500 one day and the next day valued at $20,000, or some such number.

    Those sovereign nations working towards this outcome are acquiring bullion just as fast as it is available. I presume if they are able to corner the market they will be able to name their terms. Those sovereigns pretending to have gold in their vaults (US) will be screwed and those that really have gold in their vaults will be in the driver's seat.

    In summery, I wonder if gold will have a blow-off top. History shows that all parabolas end the same way - badly. But I am not sure there is an example in history like the one I have described. Hummmm.....


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks John,

      Corporate bankruptcies I might accept, but sovereign ones (except the smaller states of the EU) are a little too hard to digest, especially if we are considering the USA in that category.
      If that is discounted (ie bankruptcy of sovereigns not a workable solution) then the US/IMF/World Bank/BIS will be dragged by the BRICS, to the only solution available. Mind you this will come at a significant cost to the citizens of the US (chaos and even perhaps martial law).Aside from that the elitists and controllers of the financial world, insist on maintaining social order and wealth preservation = control.
      This is how I see gold playing a bigger part in the new world currency regime. Clearly the existing system has passed its use by date and the only ones who have a vested interest in keeping it alive, are the ones controlling the pricing of everything. Time is quickly depleting for them to extend and pretend their games. Gold will go parabolic someday, but not to then retrace and unwind (revert to the mean)as most bubbles do. It goes up and stays there for generations. It is imperative if the world social order is to remain intact. There is no other solution that can retain a functional system free from distortion and manipulation. If planned chaos is their agenda with a NWO their ultimate goal, they will fail and fail stupendously.
      Mind you with that being the suggested outcome, we do not escape from the financial suppression and oppression we currently face without some heavy degree of adjustment ( in markets), meaning wealth destruction. In that scenario where do you run and hide to ensure you come out the other side with something still intact ? I firmly also believe that the central planners have the mindset to make the masses pay for the misguided actions and malfeasance of the banking industry. There is no escape from the poisonous prison in which we inhabit (the global financial system) unless you literally escape. What the controlling powers know is what very few understand, that Gold and other PM's are a must for survival. It is finite and satisfies all the preconditions of a sound money system.

      Delete
    2. Liquid Motion - well said. Regarding sovereign bankruptcy what I probably should have said, and what I meant, was a depression. In the `30s we had a depression and most everybody was flat broke. Debts were wiped out because no one had any ability to repay them. One man borrowed money from a bank, then gave the money to a stock broker, who took the same money and gave it to some business partnership, who took the same money to buy a speculative investment, and on and on. And when everybody asked to be repayed and the money was gone, they all went broke at once.

      I guess some farm land that does not have a mortgage would be a decent way to get by. It worked OK for my Grandfather in the '30's. Fruits, vegetables, cows, chickens.... it works.

      Delete
  11. "If gold is used to back the 'currency of the future' then..."

    Imo, gold and silver will just be two of many currency components in the "basket" forming a new world reserve currency, a transition from the USD beginning sometime in 2016-2017.

    Gold has been in a correction since August 2011, a correction that will end within 3-4 weeks at $1280.
    Gold stocks are washed out and this is the accumulation period for the best managed companies with the brightest prospects.

    This bottom picking opportunity for gold and silver stocks ranks among the top three since November 2000.

    I hope all will take advantage of this incredible opportunity to buy over the next several weeks. Everybody should be positioned preferably by the 3rd week in May and before the next FOMC in June.

    All aboard!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DB - you are a lot more sure about gold reaching a bottom at $1280 in 3-4 weeks than I am. But more power to you if your crystal ball works that well. And more power to you for anyone who heeds your advice, buys some solid miners and prepares to be patient.

      My crystal ball does not work. No doubt about that because I have great difficulty anticipating the consequences of motivated short-term manipulative actors. But what would not surprise me is to see price just keep right on rising. If gold continues to rise fairly rapidly then this daily cycle will be bullishly right translated and a retracement to approximately current price would break the current price trend line (required) and prepare the way for the next daily cycle.

      Delete
  12. Hi John

    I see you're using daily data to read the TLB, ZC, PD signals. Normally I'd guess that means these are short term trades. However, with the volume of mining shares that are being triggered, would you consider these to be at a long-term multi-year low?

    Many thanks for these excellent reports!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Greg - I do indeed consider mining shares to be at a long-term multi-year low. I also think that the bad actors will not give up without a fight and since they are not my personal friends, I have no idea what they can or will try to do next. So I would offer that as a caveat. But really, buying CGR at $0.30 or $0.22 and selling at $2.50 - who really cares? I don't, anyway.

      The bullies timed their most recent maneuver brilliantly as the price of gold was truly getting ready to blast off. I remember that day - watching the TSI (7,4) as it was rising just below ZERO and right at the trend line break. The perfect setup. But as hour after hour went by the TSI kinda melted along the trend line and heading down wards very slowly. It was really strange. It was like watching Samson from the Bible take a huge iron rod and slowly bent it with his bare hands right before one's very eyes. I've watched this TSI for about 8 years now - every single day. That was pretty amazing, let me tell you. Then of course, all hell broke loose when the order to sell 400 tons of gold hit the market. The TSI did just what it should do - it plummeted.

      And fwiw, I have no doubt the bad actors were under the same impression as I (gold about to blast off) because their actions attempted to leave *no one alive*.

      Usually what happens with the TSI in a situation like this is as follows:
      The TSI reading is deeply negative. Price rallies and the TSI rises somewhat. Then price craters again. The TSI falls in response, but creates a positive divergence. Then price rallies and the TSI rises more, getting up to say -20. Considering this hypothetical episode began with a TSI -83, and price has really only *continued lower* and then lower and then lower, one may wonder what is going on. Does the TSI not work, or what?

      What is really happening is that the TSI is saying that with each price drop, the momentum is coming closer and closer to morphing from negative to positive price momentum. That is the significance of the ZERO crossover. In this example, the -20 reading is within view of popping up through ZERO with the next rally. The -80 initial reading had very little chance of making it to ZERO. -20 is kinda like a prisoner who is finally close enough to reach the jailers keys and make a run for it.

      The point is that once a powerful momentum move is initiated (witness the SPX chart) it can take a long long time for the hot air balloon to finally lose enough altitude to begin taking off the tops of trees. It's the same thing in reverse, in the case of miners.

      Look at /DX weekly TSI (25,13) for a current example of the perils of price rallies once the TSI is only just barely hovering above ZERO. A single week or two of sideways to slightly lower price movement for weekly DX and the TSI is going to start heading below ZERO. That is like an elephant walking into quick sand. Just say bye bye or take a quick picture before the elephant disappears.

      Delete
  13. Semafo is a screaming buy now. Cash flow is .14 for Q1, and the stock is $2. How much lower can it go?

    ReplyDelete