Here is the infamous USD/JPY that has everyone so excited.
|Click on any chart to ENLARGE|
But what is just above 100 at, oh say about, 101.75? Yes, a blue line that runs left to right about 20 years. The line was support for at least 10 years and has been resistance since 2008. Good luck getting much higher on the first attempt. I'm not saying it cannot be done, especially the way the nuts are on the loose at the Central Banks. But I am skeptical.
Now let's see the US Dollar (DX) and it recent 3 year cycles.
I really thought the US Dollar was showing signs that it was finally ready to drop dead, but I got that wrong, didn't I? Anyway, I do find it interesting to see that these 3 year dollar cycles seem to find a way to top in a rather classical manner - a head & shoulders, a double top and if things go according to plan, another double top.
Some time ago I took a shot at figuring out the scheme of gold's parabola in terms of the increased steepening of 3 line segments. I redid that exercise today and got a slightly different result, but surprisingly found 3 line segments still define the parabola so far. I am guessing that this time I used a weekly chart on log scale and I probably used a daily chart on log scale last time. Anyway, here is what I found.
Wait til you see where the red line travels at our recent low!
Last, but not least, our daily chart of gold.
The dashed purple trend line is the daily cycle trend line which is ALWAYS broken before a new daily cycle can begin. We got that behind us on Friday. The daily cycle top occurred on Day 13 making it a bullishly right translation. The Fibonacci retracement managed to slightly dip below a very mild 38.2% retracement. We have completed day 18 and though on the short side of the average 24 days, it works.
Also, gold achieved a Blees rating of 100 again this past week - 3 weeks in a row. Silver had a blees rating of 95. The managed money crowd pushed their luck even further last week by taking off long contracts and adding to their ridiculously historic short position.
A top in the dollar should give us show time. And I can't wait to see it for myself!