Sunday, June 2, 2013

"Time Out Ref! I Need to Make A Few Substitutions"

After a couple days of trading my 4 Week TSI/200 ema Study I came to the realization that mixing ticker symbols of stocks with ticker symbols of futures was just way too complicated and totally unnecessary for the purposes of my study.

Stocks trade 6.5 hours per day in their regular NYSE session, yet futures trade on nearly a 24 hour basis and begin "the next day's opening session" quite literally an hour or so after the NYSE closes. Stocks trade, for the typical investor, in terms of cash and futures always trade in terms of margin per contract with an additional margin requirement when the position is held overnight.

This is apples to oranges, not apples to apples.

So to remedy this I have substituted each futures symbol with a closely related ETF and am going to call it good. Now we will be looking at 10 issues that close trade simultaneously at 4 pm est and resume trade the following morning at 9:30 am est. That's apples to apples.

The Trade Score Card and the current charts have been updated to reflect the substitutions as follows:

OIL = /CL (Crude Oil)
UUP = /DX (US Dollar Index)
SPY = /ES (E-mini S&P 500 Index)
GLD = /GC (Gold Futures)
TLO = /ZN (Treasury Notes)

If I can add some feature or tweak to this presentation that will make it either easier for you to use or more informative in some regard I invite you to write me your suggestions!

Have a great week,



  1. Hi John,

    Did any of the indicators you use warned you about this extended bear market in precious metal complex?

    Thank you.

  2. the failed yearly cycle seems to be being ignored profusely

    1. Failed yearly cycle being ignored profusely.

      Heck, that is some provocative writing! If interested,
      please tell us more about the failed yearly cycle
      and how it is being ignored profusely.

      I'm not quite sure what you are referring to, but
      always please to learn points of view and discuss.


  3. Sorry Mat to get back to you this late on your excellent question.

    I've looked at things a bit to try and answer your question. I can
    see numerous clues that were there but let me be the first to admit
    that I either did not appreciate their significance at the time or
    was simply resolved to hold on - despite all the nonsense I could
    sense was probably on the way.

    The first clue I had difficulty dealing with was in December 2012.
    What happened was the cycles - daily and intermediate - that I studied
    and understood in detail since early 2001, did not work. What I knew
    should happen did not happen.

    Secondly, I had a very good understanding of the 'time' D-waves need to unwind their previous parabolic C-wave top - and knew in my head that the C-wave to the September 2011 top would need a historically long D-wave. And I admit to becoming conflicted hearing other opinions that I wanted to believe, but intuitively knew were statistical long shots.

    So Mat, I could point to indicators that indeed told the story, but I am going to instead admit to being human and not consciously able to perceive and accept just how long and how severe this bear market would be.

    But I did know this Mat - and I have not swerved on this an inch. Gold is in a gigantic secular bull market. As such, positions can be taken way too prematurely, as exemplified by me, and a guy can still make a tremendous return on his/her investments if only one is patient.

    There are so many dynamics going on in the world today that it is quite impossible to know on a short term basis what will happen next. I am but an ant who is not privy to near-term truths from those who have the power to manipulate the markets on a short-term basis. My personal belief is that when the powers that be get what they want, the market will turn.

    It kinda reminds me of my over 30 years as a public school teacher. I have seen Principals come and go. Each has some agenda that seeks to change things for the better. They can make things good for their teachers and they can make things not so good for their teachers. But what I have learned through all these years is that no matter what they do, I out last them. They come and they go.

    So it is, for me, when I have a mental commitment for my investments. A bad season appears that was not expected. But give it time, as soon enough you will outlast it to the good times that return.

    Anyway, I have been through these kinds of situations before and come to the conclusion that sitting still is the best course - so that is what I am doing.

    I wish you well!

    1. John,

      Thank you for taking your time to respond. I appreciate it. And thank you for keeping this great blog going as well!

      I agree that the only way to survive is by putting in hard work and just grinding through, but without hard work there will be no free lunch. Also what i realize is that learning process never stops for all of us. The best thing is to learn from the past mistakes and not let them go to waste. Any mistake is a very valuable lesson that is paid for and it should not be forgotten.

      Have a great weekend.

  4. Hahahaha, ok. I think miners are just going to go down forever. I've made my peace with it......