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What will gold do next? In a word or two, it's a coin flip. I'll show you why in just a second, but first some brief background information on gold's daily cycles.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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Cycles are measured in days from one cycle low to the next. Each cycle peaks on a day that inevitably ends up being recognized as being either left or right of the midpoint day of the cycle. For example, if a cycle ends up being 21 days, the midpoint day is Day 11. If the cycle peak is on Day 10 or before, that cycle is called a left-translated cycle. If the cycle peak is on Day 12 or thereafter, that cycle is called a right-translated cycle.
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A cycle that is right-translated is considered bullish. Usually, a right-translated cycle will ultimately bottom higher than where it began on Day 1.
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A cycle that is left-translated is considered bearish. Usually, a left-translated cycle will ultimately bottom lower than where it began on Day 1.
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Looking at our World Gold Index (XGLD) chart above, we make the following observations:
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- The first 5 daily cycles of the intermediate cycle begun July 28 have been right-translated cycles. Indeed, each of these cycles ranging from 18 - 25 days has bottomed higher than their previous daily cycle bottom.
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- The 6th daily cycle, begun on Dec. 17th was 29 days, peaked on Day 11 (so it was a left-translated daily cycle) and predictably, it bottomed (on January 28) lower that the previous daily cycle.
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Which finally brings us to the current daily cycle. At the moment, it appears to have topped on Day 7 at 1368.70. Day 7 would be the midpoint day for a 13 day cycle. A gold daily cycle of just 13 days is considered highly unlikely.
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So that brings us to the coin flip I suggested in the first paragraph. If sometime this week gold surpasses 1368.70, that would greatly increase the odds of a right-translated bullish daily cycle, as the top would have occurred after Day 11 or so. This would suggest that the previous cycle low of 1307.70 will hold. And indeed, this cycle bottom could be much much higher than 1307.
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However, if gold does not take out 1368.70, the current cycle will unarguably become a bearish left-translated daily cycle - with high odds that the previous cycle low of 1307.70 will be taken out to the down side within the next couple of weeks. If by chance this scenario is the one that plays out, then I would have no doubt that gold would then begin a new intermediate cycle and we would be, with great certainty, off to the races higher.
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How am I placing my bets? I'm not. I have chosen to sit through this draw down, this intermediate cycle conclusion, and hold all positions in the red. Why? Because gold is in a secular bull market and holding through any correction with patience will allow me to sell all my positions at a gain, and not a loss. Could I have 'made more money' selling out when gold was 1420 and re-buying when it was 1310? Of course. Frankly, I do not have a crystal ball and I considered it unlikely I was capable of such astute decision-making. But I did make the decision I thought was astute for me to make - which was to simply sit still. And to this day I am confident I made a fine decision.
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