Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Gold and Silver Parabolics - Part II

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As you will discover from the charts and information in this article, the previous three gold and silver parabolics (2004, 2006 and 2008) had a common characteristic.  Each exhibited a midpoint consolidation - a resting place that separated the character of the first half and second half of the parabolic move.  This observation is particularly relevant at this time, as both gold and silver have presently completed this midpoint consolidation and are already on their way to concluding the 2011 parabolic.
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Let's begin with the previous parabolics in gold and silver and work our way towards the current situation.  At the conclusion I will show you what I think is likely to power the 2011 parabolics to completion.
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The gold 2004 parabolic had a midpoint consolidation around and below the $387 price area.  Once price cleared this area, the second half of the move was both decisive and relentless.
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE









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The silver 2004 parabolic consolidated at and below the $6.62 price level.  As with the 2004 gold parabolic, once price cleared the consolidation area it continued higher powerfully and without hesitation.










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The 2006 gold parabolic consolidated at and below the 577 price area.  Once price cleared this range it headed north and without wavering or hesitation.










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The 2006 silver parabolic spent quite a number of weeks back and filling before reaching its half way point just below $11.00.  But once the first leg was concluded price movement was nearly vertical and extremely swift.










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The 2008 gold parabolic featured a pennant pattern that divided the entire move into two equal segments, and formed just under the $836 price area.  Price in the upper half of the move needed to slow itself down a couple times (red candles) to keep in essentially identical slope with the lower leg of the move.







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The 2008 silver parabolic exhibited a bull flag at about the 1/3 mark, then spent a few weeks consolidating half way up the entire move, around $16.30.  As we have observed to be typical, the upper half of the parabolic move, once it left the midpoint consolidation area, was swift, decisive and powerful.







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This now brings us to our current 2011 gold and silver parabolic.  I am switching software at this point from charts by StockCharts to FreeStockCharts, the reason being that the latter allows me to adjust the price height of anticipated future price movement. 
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So here is our present situation with gold.  It appears to me that the midpoint price consolidation area has occurred beneath the $1425 price level.  Gold appears ready to rocket launch into the upper half of its parabolic move.  Price is projected to the $1700 area.
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This current week appears as a red candle breather, similar to the price action of the preceding intermediate cycle.  The True Strength Index (TSI) momentum indicator is rising above ZERO and I expect it will continue to rise.
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Silver is a step ahead of gold in that it has already broken above its midpoint consolidation price area of $32, and is presently trading near $36.  The weekly TSI indicator has yielded a bullish trend line break buy signal and I expect silver to continue higher week after week, as it has in the 2nd half of each previous parabolic move. Using the midpoint consolidation concept, price is projected some 40% higher than today price to around $48.
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Finally, here is a weekly chart of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) which I am using as a proxy for the chart of the US Dollar.
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We can see that the US Dollar is literally on the precipice of a waterfall decline below key support at 22.  This roughly translates into 76 on the US Dollar Index.
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The TSI momentum indicator is below ZERO and falling.  This is bad news for the US Dollar and I view it highly unlikely it will be able to rebound, let alone hold this level.  Once the US Dollar begins to fall below support it will trigger both panic and a flight to gold and silver. And I believe this will power the concluding leg of the 2011 gold and silver parabolics.
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41 comments:

  1. Just found your blog - this is an amazing article. I can see I need to go back and do some reading to understand it better, but ...wow !

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  2. John thank you for some excellent work. I am very interested in the gold to silver ratio and I thought maybe you would look into this very interesting chart and post some analysis of that chart...

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  3. Hi John,

    Looks like your add on AGQ yesterday was unfortunate. I am still holding a large position on it myself. Do we think we should add / sell or hold?

    Thanks.

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  4. Fung - as I believe AGQ will surpass $300 I do not regard buying at $210 as unfortunate.

    Probably best to wait for the US Dollar daily cycle to top, then add, or wait until it falls below 76, then add.

    Silverwood - I'll look into it next chance I get. Thanks for the idea.

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  5. Excellent analysis.

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  6. John,

    HOly crap! WHat's happening? SIlver's plunged almost $2! Does this conform or contradict the thesis? I'm imagining it alters it slightly. I'm hoping we don't retrace to $32... thoughts?

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  7. Au and Ag are taking a beating today. Does your analysis still stand?

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  8. John --

    Great analysis. It shows the benefit of looking at the big picture (weekly charts) vs. depending solely on the daily charts.

    How often do you and Gary talk?

    Thanks.

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  9. The US Dollar is today on Day 3 of a new daily cycle. The previous two US Dollar daily cycles were each close to 28 days and each topped on around Day 8.

    When a cycle tops before its midpoint day, for these recent cycles it was about Day 14 (14X2 = 28), that is bearish. It means that the rest of the days of that cycle (28-8 = 20) price will be not only going lower, but will also fall below the Day 1 of the cycle.

    And in the two previous daily cycles the US Dollar has indeed taken out the low of the preceding cycle.

    Sooooo..... if this current daily cycle tops soon, the cycle will be considered bearish and it will take out the previous low (76).

    Sorry for the long winded explanation, but today's precious metal price behavior - considering the US Dollar is only on Day 3 of its daily cycle - is not surprising and does not change my outlook one iota.

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  10. Very interesting and thorough analysis. Will compare it to the next few weeks.

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  11. why are silver shares not rising to a premium of the bullion price

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  12. I am still skeptical about the cycles, but I do see in the price charts some nice head and shoulders tops that all point to 72 on the dollar index. So if this happens, it should be bullish for the metals. I'm worried too Don, and if for some reason silver gets back to 32, I might have to buy some more.... with my hand shaking and heart pounding....wondering if this is a buying opportunity.

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  13. John, I guess Friday's action gave you a big grin. I have been watching the silver miners closely. AG, SLW, EXK, SVM, and GPL in particular have been really been rocking. When I look at the weekly charts they are at the top of RSI. If your analysis plays out they would be really overbought. Does this RSI observation cause you any worry? Yes I know overbought can go to very overbought, and the Fed is helping. But eventually doesn't sanity final move up front and center?

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  14. Rick -- I think I got a bigger grin reading your question about RSI, though I was also pleased with the price action on Friday.

    RSI, TSI, Stochastics, MACD, ROC, CCI etc. etc. are all momentum indicators. As momentum accelerates these indicators rise. Some are designed so that they hit their head on 99 and can't go any higher (RSI and Stochastics). While other momentum indicators can and do go as high as the sky allows.

    I think silver and silver stocks are going to accelerate and then accelerate more and, incredibly, then accelerate even more. And the reading on the RSI, or any other indicator for that matter, will be utterly irrelevant.

    When it becomes obvious that the US Dollar is going to tank there will be a flood of money that flees not for the safety of the dollar, but for the safety of commodities. And as this liquidity chases price higher it takes on an irrational life of its own that is, of course, not sustainable.....but try to explain that to the people who are making a kazillion bucks each day it continues.

    Anyway, look at what the RSI did on the previous 3 silver parabolics and hopefully you will conclude I have answered your question truthfully.

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  15. Hi John,

    Im a bit confused as to how you got to 48 as a target price for your silver parabola. if we started from 18 dollars doesnt that give a price target of 36?
    thanks

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  16. ILUVPMS - nice catch. I stand corrected. $18 to the consolidation midpoint area of $32 is a $14 lower leg. $32 + $14 upper leg = $46 target.

    You know, I did not see that error. And there have been more than 20,000 readers who, until you, did not (apparently) see it either.

    Thank you!

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  17. John,

    based on previous years, when can we expect silver to hit $46? 60 days from now - end april early may?

    cheers. great advice by the way

    Ken

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  18. Hi Ken -- well, just looking at the 3 silver parabolic charts I made for this article, we should have 5 or 6 weeks. As this should be the 'mother of all silver parabolics' due to the longer consolidation period preceding our current one, who knows...maybe 6 or 7 weeks.

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  19. Hi John,

    Thank you for the swift reply. I believe we were both wrong ( hehe). I was under the assumption that the parabola would be a double from the breakout point and would net us a 30 dollar top. However, if I am reading your article correctly, the parabola is based on two 50% moves. So if we are starting from 18 dollars then the 50% move would be to 27 dollars no? Next, from 27 dollars we should make our way up to 40 dollars as the peak of the parabola since half of 27 is 13.

    I believe our top should be around 40 then and not your 46 or my original 36???

    Thanks,

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  20. ILUVPMS - we sure tripping all over this one, aren't we? LOL

    If a parabola starts at, say 10 and then consolidates at 16, that means the lower 50% of the entire parabolic move is 6. It also means the midpoint consolidation is at 16. It also means the entire parabolic move is 12, which added to 10 means it tops at 22.

    So, our current silver parabola started at 18 and consolidated at 32.....for a measurement of 14 which is then doubled for the 2nd half of the move by adding 14 more to the consolidation price of 32. Grand total 46.

    Now here is the kicker. I don't think for a moment that we will stop at 46. But using the midpoint consolidation technique for estimating does give us that number.

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  21. Thank you!!! I definitely see it now!! thanks for the math refresher! LOL

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  22. posting your article on my blog soon. Enjoy the traffic. great work.

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  23. thanks to SGS for sending us here.. excellent aticle.

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  24. I like how conservative your numbers are John. The statistics could conceivably be overrun by scarcity, dollar decline, massive influx of $ and or all of the above. A perfect storm for us investors.

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  25. Enjoyed reading your article very much.
    I read the following
    Harvey Organ
    Trader Dan Norcini
    SGS
    FOFOA

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  26. Are you at all concerned about how far away the price is getting from the 40DMA? During previous spikes in silver, the price got close to 50% higher than the 40 DMA. We're right about there now in silver.

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  27. Anon - that is a weekly chart using the 40 wma as a proxy for the 200 dma, but I do understand your question.

    In both 2004 and 2008 both reached 48% and 45% above the 200 dma, respectively. The 2006 silver parabolic reached 65%.

    At the present time we are about 47% above the 200 dma which arguably is on the lower end of precedence. And certainly that fact is of some concern.

    But here is the thing that those thinking silver cannot go any higher are not taking into account: the US Dollar is about to fall right through critical support and set off a currency crisis.

    As silver and gold have consolidated near their 30 year / all-time highs and are ready to react, I believe they will lift off and complete their parabolic pattern.

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  28. If you are right about all this, John, with all the $$$ I will earn, I will definitely buy you a beer.
    But what happens when the silver price tops and finally collapses? Should we revert to gold share investing?
    Eamonn

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  29. Great find, almost can't find any flaws. Besides of course - this pattern works, until it doesnt.
    Will make for an interesting week no doubt.

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  30. In silver market only run by speculaters and media nothing happen with doller,if doller fail people eat gold and silver !! last year may-june euro collapse news, now doller collapse news this is propoganda by speculators and make money, currency never replacd by gold and silver,if u understand today gold and silver price are only due to paper collection by some funds this price not due to doller or euro failure but buy paper byers,they know public sentiment,and play very smartly with public sentiments throug media propoganda.u think u save u r by buy gold and silver u r wrong, see history!

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  31. I'm long and steady for this ride, but love to read the technicalities like this cause I don't understand 90% of it. Thanks for your work and I'll be waiting for more.

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  32. Withe USD vs the Yen rising 6 cents due to immediate reaction of events in Japan, does this affect your analysis at all either in the short or long term ? I understand the fundamentals are unchanged but would be interested in your comments. Excellent work and thank you.

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  33. The horrible crisis in Japan and the reaction of the US Dollar to it only further convinces me that I am on the correct path. The dollar began a new daily cycle last week and topped in just 4 days. The low of the previous cycle was UUP 21.90. At the moment UUP is 21.95. This is NOT the way the world's reserve currency 'safe haven' should be performing - especially in light of the crisis in Japan, mid-East, etc. The dollar is on the precipice of confirming a failed daily cycle with quite literally 20+ days left on the shot clock to travel LOWER.

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  34. John, I love this site. Just found it a couple of days ago. I'm try to learn as much as I can about TSI, I wish I would have found it years ago, it could have saved me lot's of losses in the market.

    My first question is, how do you decide what scale to use, daily, weekly, hourly. In your examples, you use different scales.
    Do certain buy/sell techniques, always use the same scale?
    Thanks

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  35. Harry - thanks for the compliment.

    I generally believe that all time frames show truth and it is our challenge to decipher the truth that is spoken. Usually I simply find a time frame that best communicates this truth in a manner that is easiest to share with the reader. The TSI buy/sell techniques work well on all time frames. Again, the challenge is to understand the buy/sell signal within the context of the chosen time frame.

    A signal given on a one minute chart, for example, does not have the same longer term significance of a signal given on a daily chart.

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  36. Hi John, Great post you have here.

    Are there any changes to your original analysis given the consolidation in the $36 price range followed by the drop back to the $34's?

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  37. Hi Stock -- thank you for the compliment.

    Changes to my original analysis? Nope.

    Yesterday could well have been the conclusion to gold's daily cycle and today Day 1 of a new daily cycle. The cycle was extended and exaggerated due to the crisis in Japan, but that event did not alter the fundamental picture at all.

    If I am correct, gold's previous daily cycle topped on Day 33 and bottomed on Day 39. This is a very bullish right translated daily cycle and quite the contrast with the current US Dollar daily cycle which appears to have topped on Day 4 and today, Day 7, finds itself about ready to confirm a failed daily cycle if/when it trades below 76.12

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  38. Hi John,
    Have been reading a few other blogs.. Do you think this thing could take spot silver down to the 27 to 30.00 area in the short term? I have May 38 call options I am thinking about taking what profit I have out and am waiting to see if we get a sell off to the high 20's. Then come back in and buy July 38's or 40's. I bought the May 38's when silver was 27.10 a few weeks back.
    I tell ya.. what to do? Thanks.

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  39. Hi Sierra -- well, you asked my opinion and I will offer it to you. But I certainly do not have a crystal ball that knows the future.

    I seriously doubt spot silver will drop down to the 27 to 30.00 are in the short term. And I do think the entire parabolic move will be over before your May 38 call options expire.

    I hope my thoughts help you.

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  40. Thank you John. Yes they sure do help. Thank you so very much. Love your blog. Gonna ride this out and stay put.

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