Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Bought/Sold DUST -- Update Tomorrow's Trades (Today!)

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This is the 60 minute chart of Direxion Gold Miner Bear 2X ETF (DUST) which I bought today at $40.75 for a little day trade.
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Click on any chart to ENLARGE
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You can see that the TSI (7,4) was sporting a wedge pattern that looked likely to break in one direction or the other.  The positive divergence between the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator and flat price gave me the clue the break would be to the upside.  And that it did, indeed.
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I have just two more days of school to teach and then I will be able to trade and write and post my thoughts all day every day.  I am so ready for that.
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Anyway, the last class today was going to take my eye off the computer so I sold my position for $41.50 at that time - just before DUST made a really nice move higher. As you can see from this second chart, the TSI indeed broke through the wedge to the upside and crossed up through the ZERO line in the process.  I guess I will just have to rebuy this ETF soon again.
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I am going to recommend that all open trades in Tomorrow's Trades (Today!) be closed tomorrow morning on the open with a market price sell order. These stocks include PLG, AZK, CDY, NGD, HL, EGI, NUGT, DGP, SIL and GLDX.
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Of these stocks, I personally own NUGT, DGP, SIL and GLDX.  I will sell each and every one of them on the open tomorrow.
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It would take me several charts and a lot of time and energy that I simply, and unfortunately, do not have this evening to explain in detail why I think it is time to throw in the towel on the miners and the precious metals.
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In brief, on the TSI indicator issue, if gold were to make a new high it would do so as a negative divergence (higher price, lower TSI high) and that would be a sell signal. We reached $1550 today and that was higher than any day in history, except two (April 29 and *THE TOP* May 2).  That is close enough for me to say enough.
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Secondly, gold's daily cycle is on Day 18. Tomorrow will be Day 19.  For a cycle that usually runs about 20 - 24 days, the clock does not have many more ticks before the buzzer. He who stays on the frying pan too long gets burned, or something like that.
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Thirdly, gold's intermediate cycle is on Week 18.  This cycle usually runs 20 - 24 weeks.  And, the normal intermediate cycle correction (think Dec/Jan `11, June/July `10 and Dec/Jan `10) usually lasts 4 - 8 weeks.  So, if we subtract 4-8 weeks off the weekly shot clock of 20 - 24 weeks, well, the correction could begin at any time or even likely began with gold's peak of $1577 a month ago.  The most important point is that we are very late in the intermediate cycle and hoping for great fireworks at this time is not in the cards, in my opinion.
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Fourthly and enough said, if I am wrong, as far as I am concerned, big deal.  I have never apologized for taking profits when, with hind sight, it is obvious I sold too soon.  If things set up a little better somewhere down the road I will get back up on my horse and ride it.  But for now I suspect the next good setup is going to be in another direction - DUST, DZZ, ZSL and so on.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.


3 comments:

  1. Great post, if you could let us know when you enter positions to play the downside it would be greatly appreciated.

    Keep up the great work!

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  2. Thanks Dan - I will write whenever I buy or sell the same day. Once on summer vacation next week I can post stuff in relative real time which a whole lot better yet. I notice that AGQ has a TSI trend line break SELL signal on it's 4 hour chart tonight, and conversely ZSL has the same in the form of a BUY signal. I don't think it will take me to jump on the horse that rides the other direction.

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  3. hey john love your work the tsi has changed the way i trade immensely.. although ive been having troube analysing the movement of ZAR/JPY .. im trying to figure out which way it is going to go (to the up extreme or the down extreme) as it is currently trading at its middle junction... could you post up a chart with a quick analysis as to the outcome for me please :)

    i would greatly appreciate it

    -Phoenix

    ReplyDelete