Saturday, March 31, 2012

BUY NUGT @ $16.07

I repurchased shares of Direxion's Gold Miner Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) yesterday morning @ $16.07. I had a limit buy order set to trigger at a price that would be a gap fill of the previous day's session. The order executed as I requested but the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator also registered a sell signal which left me watching price drop another 45 cents before it registered a new buy signal. So much for trying to trade and work at the same time. Anyway, I will hold for a while as it appears to me this trade should work out anyway.

My TSI Trading record has been updated.


  1. Hi John! How are you? I am following all your trades since many time ago. I must admit I was screwed with TVIX and not knowing when to cut losses... shame on me. At the end I got out at -30% :p

    But I have to say that the TSI is a very interesting indicator and I am trying to learn more and more about it. I see you are using more sophisticated indicators now, your charts looks a bit more complex so I am wondering if I am lefting something.

    Do you have any book about the TSI to learn more in deep about it? Something like a compendium with more rules? It would be great to learn more about it.

  2. Not your usual TSI parameters - could you explain a bit what you're using here? Thanks, Bill

  3. Toni - I wish there was such a book. I would delight to read it.
    For better or worse I continue to tinker with new ideas about how to
    use the TSI. After 5 or 6 years at this you would think my imagination
    would be exhausted, but new ideas always seem to come along, just the same.

    Bill - I am experimenting with Blau's preferred (25,13) setting but in
    a somewhat more complex way. I apply exponential smoothing of various degrees
    to the TSI and its signal, but also am considering the rate at which the TSI
    or its signal are changing. What tends to happen, it appears, is that this rate
    is a fairly good tip that an overall TSI trend change is on the horizon. Also,
    the slope at which the TSI moves is an interesting consideration and seems to
    have several implications about the future direction of price movement.

    Additionally, I am doing similar trickery with the MoneyFlowIndex (10) and
    observing the behavior of price following a period in which money flow is
    increasing/decreasing while price has been consolidating. It seems there is
    a good case to be made that in these instances, smart money is loading up/dumping
    while dumb money is selling/buying. Once the money flow reaches a certain level
    price does not continue to consolidate but instead, it moves higher or lower,
    as the case may be. As with all this technical analysis stuff, for every time it
    seems to work I can also show you a thousand times it did not. It's intriguing
    to me, just the same.

    I think this study is never ending and at this point I find it difficult to
    program the computer to think as I do somewhat intuitively - but I am working
    on it.