Thursday, February 3, 2011

It's Coming.

SPY - May 2010 Mini-Crash
*
The mini-crash of the stock market this past May 2010 has been a frequent study of mine.  This morning I am looking at it again and well, I think our current stock market setup is now setup to repeat the fiasco.  In a couple words, 'it's coming'.
*
This first daily chart is of the SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) with the focal point as the late April/early May 2010 time frame. Noteworthy were several negative divergences in the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator with respect to continued higher price in the stock market.  When the TSI fell through ZERO and could not reclaim a positive reading within a few days, the crash was cast in concrete before it even happened.
*
Click on any chart to ENLARGE
*
A secondary indicator, the Money Flow Index (MFI) was also diverging obviously from price and as it fell through and was unable to regain its 50 level, further evidence forewarned days in advance of the actual mini-crash.
SPY - February 2011 - 'It's coming'
*
This second daily chart is our current February 2011 SPY setup.  Price is obviously diverging badly from the direction of both indicators.  Of particular note is that the TSI indicator has already spent two days below ZERO and is once again rolling over to make another crossover into the land of the black abyss. The MFI indicator, too, has already made a couple of forays below its 50 reading and the odds are very long it will be able to continue much higher, if at all.










Coral Gold Resources (CLHRF)
*
As per my new trading strategy, I had set a limit order to sell yesterday's purchase of Coral Gold Resources (CLHRF) for a 2+% gain.  For some unknown reason there has been a lot of interest today in this stock from the opening bell, as it has been trading in the 90+ cent range all morning. Anyway, my limit order took me out at the open and yielded a nice 8.1% gain, so I am not complaining.
*
My TSI Trading record has been updated.

4 comments:

  1. i guess the question is: how soon is 'it" coming and could the s&P500 spike up before "it" does come?

    ReplyDelete
  2. ItGoes and JT....
    Well said! This market doesn't want to quit. Wish we knew exactly where the top is going to be.
    John you are a genius. Your work is fantastic. Help us find the top.

    ReplyDelete
  3. John,

    Have you explained your new trading strategy and I somehow missed it? If you haven't yet, I am eager for the day you explain it.

    joe

    ReplyDelete
  4. ItGoes - just before the last mini-crash of May 2010, the stock market did indeed spike higher...kinda like what it has done for the past 2-3 days.

    Monty - I assure you I am nothing remotely close to a genius, but thank you for expressing your confidence in me. Where is the top? Good chance it was about an hour ago.

    Joe - I have not yet explained my new trading strategy in technical terms - TSI - but I have explained in general terms about what the strategy attempts to accomplish (i.e. 2+% gains on a daily basis, thus redeploying the same capital over and over for low risk small gains.

    In technical terms it is about using the TSI to identify positive and inverse positive divergences, as well as negative and inverse negative divergences.

    ReplyDelete