A Flash from the Past

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I was doing a little tinkering with gold's updated chart this evening and I noticed something that reminded me of some work I had done in the past.  I poked around a bit and found this weekly chart I posted on April 10th.  It's a chart of silver.
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I surmised in my analysis that silver had not quite peaked, based on historical readings of previous silver parabolic moves, and speculated that it had about 3-5 weeks left on the shot clock before exploding.
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I was close.
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Silver did peak 3 weeks later on April 25 and tossed and turned a few days thereafter before falling from the sky.
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My technique was simply to guess that silver would head for the showers once it reached a somewhat predictable level of momentum, and from that I estimated about how long it would take for the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator to reach that level.

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But back to gold. 

I was looking at the TSI reading on the weekly chart this evening and it sure seemed rather high. A little more investigating and I had noted all the weekly high TSI readings of every C-wave top since 2001. Then I threw in some 'above the 200 dma' calculations as something of a cross check.
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Before we get to the data and the comparisons, I was reminded to observe how each of the ABCD patterns have grown longer and more complex as they have morphed from one to the next. You will notice that the first 5 C-waves had essentially a single extreme momentum move (the C-wave parabolic top, of course).
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Beginning with the 6th C-wave (2008), I guess (duh!) because the ABCD patterns are getting larger and longer, a single extreme momentum move is not enough. The 2008 gold parabolic had a midpoint pennant consolidation that actually had substantially more momentum at this midpoint consolidation than at its peak (0.93 vs. 0.65).
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So now let's look at our current C-wave. It's interesting to see that it has not had a single momentum peak before the concluding parabolic rocket, as in 2008, but three (0.86, 0.88 and 0.84)!

Our current reading is 0.83 so being optimistic one could hope this is simply momentum peak four and the BIG finale will be coming in the fall as number five. OR being pessimistic, this current peak IS the final peak of the C-wave and a severe profit taking event will surely be next and soon. 

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Other notes on the chart: the 2006 ascended 36.2% and 2008 28.0% above the 200 dma. At present we have reached 23.2%.

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If we now climb to equal the 2008 height of 28%, gold would top at $1888. Even better, if we now climb to equal the 2006 height of 36.2%, gold would top at $2009.

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So, there you have it.
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Personally, I think gold is finished for now. That is what the daily and 4- hour TSI tells me. And in my mind, this weekly chart agrees. But who really knows.
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Oh hey, this was a first for me: Kitco's Jon Nadler referenced one of my posts in his report yesterday.   "Others were a bit more vocal and they reached for the alarm bell well before Thursday’s initial declines". 

He even says I was ahead of the crowd.  But he doesn't say if I was right. Ha Ha. 

Honestly, I can't blame him.

Good trading to all, and to all, a good-night.