Stocks 38.2% Retrace, Go Gold and Sentiment Disappointment

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I have readers inquiring how long I will hold my deep under water TNA position. So I hope this post explains my reasoning somewhat. Gold is walking up a steep plank and we'll take a look at that. Finally, people just aren't scared enough (I'm afraid) - some new data out from Investor's Intelligence.
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School starts next week and I am getting nothing accomplished with that responsibility as I spend too much time on this computer. Hopefully I'll give the blog a rest and get something done that I can actually do something about.

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This first chart is of the S&P 500 as it began the first leg of the secular bear market in 2007. What captures my attention is the degree to which the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level acted as a support zone for several months. In fact, a vicious bear market rally began several weeks after this price area was reached.

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This second chart, also of the S&P 500, shows us that we have begun the second leg of this secular bear market. Price has reached the same 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. For now, the jury is out. Will this hold? I hope so, but don't know that it will.

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Here is today's look at GOLD on the same 4 hour chart we used yesterday. Gold is doing great - jumping like a frog higher for the third day in a row. The daily TSI (7,4) looks good. This chart (4 hour) shows that the TSI is in negative divergence with the previous high reading.  That is, price has made a higher high, but the TSI, as yet, is still lower than its previous high. We note the steep catwalk that gold has challenged itself to maintain. I won't say another word.

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And finally, some disappointing news from Investor's Intelligence today.  Well, disappointing if you are long the market.  If short the stock market, it could be great news!
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It seems that our waterfall sell off has done literally nothing to scare people. In fact, the % of bulls increased! And the % of bears decreased!  Huh?

I admire people with ice water in their veins but at this moment we have way too many of these folks holding stock. The bottom line is that we need more people to be scared and selling frantically so that a bottom can be in place. This data from Investor's Intelligence suggests we are not there yet.