Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Incredible Sentiment Data - BULLISH!!!

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Today's sentiment data from Investor's Intelligence is simply mind boggling to me.  I knew sentiment was bad.  And I was relying on that to help my TNA position sooner or later.  But I had no idea sentiment is THIS bad.  Geez, people are so scared right now that the only recent time that compares was the March '09 low - right when the S&P 500 bottomed at 666 and began a 12 month breakneck speed 80% advance to top at 1204.
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Do you realize just how bullish the current sentiment data is?  I do.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE

8 comments:

  1. sounds like we may get be getting close to being overbought - no?

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  2. Ha ha. We are just getting started!

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  3. I am still holding some TNA. Should I sell them at @41?

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  4. I plan to sell my TNA now that my last position is green and I can sell with a gain. I think TNA will go to $47 at a minimum. But I also think the faster money will be made in the miners, so I will sell TNA real soon and switch that money to some miners.

    Thanks for your question and post Fung.

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  5. Thanks for sharing with your view.

    I personally think that the miner stocks are more risky. I could be wrong. :-)

    $47 - that is a lot of upside from here. I am happy to sell at $41. Maybe I will sell the lot at $41 and then look for a pullback to get back in?

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  6. I would argue just the opposite. The stock market is more risky. It is in a secular bear and that ultimately means that at some point the bear is going to break up this little tea party (next Spring when the US Dollar bottoms) and devour a nation of unsuspecting folks and their retirement/pension plans.

    Miners are in a secular bull and to make money you just have to be patient and let the bull do the rest.

    Also, so what if the spx goes up from current 1090 to 1130 (TNA 47)? That is a very limited gain.

    What is going to happen when gold closes just $15 higher at All-Time highs and HUI closes just $12 higher to crack above $500 is going to make playing in the stock market looks like a fool's game. There will be no price ceiling above either gold or the miners at that point.....and we could be there any day now. Hot money that has been waiting for "confirmation" will be climbing over itself to get in or get left out.

    Just my opinion, of course, but I am staying with the bull and to heck with the bear.

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  7. I have sold my lot at an average price of 40.8 today. It has been a roller-coaster ride. I originally bought at 38. You can imagine how I felt when TNA sank to 32! Anyway, thanks for sharing your view on TNA.

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  8. Fung you should have a nice 6-7% profit for sitting still less than a month. That is more than most people realize in a year. Congratulations for being patient and for being rewarded!

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