Thursday, September 30, 2010


This stock, Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN) was down some some 40% intraday yesterday and up 28% today.  I guess somebody is making money off all this manipulation, but it sure isn't me.  Today I sold an allotment of CMIN for $0.30.  The problem for me is that I have three other purchases of this dud, so I am challenged to figure how and when to best rid myself of their presence in my portfolio.
It's possible that the shorts will keep covering tomorrow and continue to force the price higher.  If so, I will likely say bye-bye to one and maybe two allotments of this stuff - at a considerable loss.
Gold was interesting today as we had a brief attempt to see how the $1300 level would hold.  The test lasted all of about 15 minutes and gold did hold.  As I believe we are just a few days into the next daily cycle, it is possible gold will continue to consolidate just above $1300 and it gets ready for the next semi-rocket launch. This is a great time to accumulate shares before that happens, in my opinion, that is.
Click on the chart to ENLARGE
My TSI Trading record has been updated.


  1. John,

    Can you take a look of the chart of VMW? I bought this last April at around 24.00, then doubled it at 61.00 some time earlier this year. This is the best buy in my life. Right now the price stands at around 85.00

    a few day's ago, I saw a short term divergency between the price trend and TSI as well as MFI. I sold one at 88.85. Now I need to make a decistion to either buy it back or sold the rest. TSI at this moment. Since July, August, a longer term divergence is developed between price and TSI/MFI while price has still been up a lot.
    At this moment both TSI and MFI are at the support line (formed in July, August and sep), tomorrow I willl either see a break of support or they will bounce back from the support line. What's your suggestion about this stock?
    It's interesting that both TSI and MFI also has a resistent line which is continously going down. It comes to a stage that there will either be an upbreack or down break. Is the strength of this stock weakening? You know when I bought it last year, I believed it would go to 200+, now it's not even half.

  2. Well BJ, having a stock that has tripled for you is a nice problem to have. We should all have such problems to solve!

    What caught my eye was not the TSI/MFI stuff, but the incredibly huge saucer formation the stock has made in the past 3 years. Whether it turns into a cup with handle, and therefore sometime soon begins to go sideways or gently drop, who knows?

    Also rather remarkable is that VMW has scarcely had two down weeks in a row for nearly 2 years. Given my two observations above, I really see no reason to sell it as it is still doing exactly what we all dream. I would think if you can buy it when it is having a down week that would be ideal, as a matter of fact.

    I didn't answer your question using TSI/MFI, but I do hope I have given you another light to shine on your jewel.

  3. Good observations. It does have a saucer formation. Thank you for your advice. I was only looking at the right half and I saw something like a bump and run, although no reversal yet. The uptrend seemed to me to have accelerated since Feb 2010.

  4. If you still have time, here is another stock in my inventory, SVM.TO

    I bought it sometime earlier this year at a little more thatn 6.00. I did not sell it when it peaked in May. ( A little greedy!) so I had to hold it for so many months and finally it's coming back. But both TSI and MFI recently develops divergency and it looks losing strength.
    After your comment of VMW, I also observered a saurce formation for this stock. What's your idea? This is a silver mine stock.

  5. Silvercorp (SVM) oh, well, it is trending very strongly higher as will most all of the silver mining stocks for quite some time in the future.

    The dive in MFI since price reached $8 has kept the stock basically consolidating sideways. If you wanted to add to this position I think an ideal time would be when you get a breakout of MFI on the daily chart. The TSI just says this thing is trending very strongly - not saying it is losing significant momentum.

    Once the market says good-bye to $1300 gold and $21 silver this stock will continue higher like a freight train. Perhaps think more in terms of adding to the position rather than selling and trying to rebuy lower (just a suggestion to consider).

    Great questions, sir!

  6. I am very interested in what you said "The TSI just says this thing is trending very strongly". How exactly do I read the very strong trend through the TSI?

  7. Any thoughts on ANO? I bought @0.88 when my data gave a buy signal. I am now getting mixed signals @1.06.


  8. BJ - by definition, when the TSI is rising above ZERO, price is also rising.

    This also means that when the TSI remains above ZERO for a sustained period of time, price is strongly trending higher.

    Compare this with SLV and GLD. Both are strongly trending higher. How does the TSI look in this instance?

    I do not understand why this is true, but it is very common for the TSI, in a strongly trending environment, to drop down to the area of the ZERO line, then rebound. The interpretation is that in say 7 periods, finally the up trend has flattened - only to then rebound and continue higher.

    Of course this works in opposite fashion when the TSI reading is BELOW zero.

    Which is to say that when below zero, the area where the TSI is most likely to reverse it's direction is at ZERO. ZERO represents equilibrium. If the down trend is to then continue, a turn down of the TSI at ZERO means that price is certainly headed lower - and immediately.

    If I did not exactly answer you question, or if my answer gives you more questions, just ask!

  9. Lauren - my answer depends on the kind of trader/investor you are. Which I have no clue, btw.

    A trader, as myself, would take a gain, which I did at $1.03 today, and say 'c'ya'. ANO closed at $1.08 so obviously this time around my strategy shot myself in the foot for 5 cents.

    Truth be told, I think ANO goes much higher because I think that Platinum goes much higher.

    Will I swap into trades that outperform ANO from $1.03? Who knows. That is the gamble I took today when I sold my ANO position. I am trying to buy things that will have greater odds than when I sold ANO. But hey, no one is perfect or can see the future.

    And suppose it turns out that I sold prematurely, my attitude is simply 'so what'. If I can continue to be 90% accurate with my profitability, even just 80%, I will make money.

    I am not concerned that someone else out there in this huge world has outperformed me. I expect that to be true and could care less.

    What I do care about is what I can control, use a strategy that does work, and let the chips fall where they my favor, or otherwise.

    I have absolutely no regrets for selling ANO today at $1.03. It is my strategy to take profits and the look for great setups. So far, the strategy has been effective.

  10. Hi John,

    first, I'd like to thank you for sharing knowledge with the rest of us, I find yor blog quite interesting.

    Can you drop any thought on IAG, lately it's been a poor performer compared with other gold miners. I see tsi is just above zero with mfi increasing. Also I find the tsi quite "choppy" compared with other stocks.



  11. Sergio - as you know, IAG is up around 800% since the mining stock low of Oct. 08. That is incredible, right there.

    Its funny you should mention this stock because I just suggested to someone else that they consider buying IAG. It is virtually on the cusp on a TSI breakout and with a reading of +.04, that right there is a buy sign.

    This is one of many many many stocks that will scream 40%+ higher over the next many months. If you own IAG, you have a solid investment, IMO.

    I hope my thoughts help you Sergio.