Saturday, October 2, 2010

SOLD TWO and BOUGHT FIVE

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Friday was a busy day of trading for me.  I sold ANO at $1.03 and more CMIN at $0.33.  And I accumulated more shares of  CDY at $1.17, NSU at $4.94, SFMI at $0.15, SILA at $0.80, as well as started a new position in SFEG at $1.09.
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This first daily chart is of Anooraq Resources Corp (ANO) which I sold at $1.03.  ANO closed at $1.08 with a 21.05% gain for the day, so arguably I sold much too soon.  Indeed, the True Strength Index (TSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) indicators were just flashing a BUY signal when I sold, not a SELL signal.  
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What was I thinking to sell so early?  Or, was I thinking?  Fair questions.  I guess I noticed the stock had already gone up 14.61% at the time I sold and as I no longer have time to sit around all day and watch these things, I decided to not press my luck.  
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This kind of 'inefficient' trade is going to happen to me from time to time due to my full-time employment.  I have already had that discussion with myself and determined that that is acceptable.  And, if I continue to make winning trades, in the long run it is going to all work out anyway, so why kick myself when these kind of things happen?
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
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The other sale was of Constitution Mining Corp (CMIN) at $0.33.  This sale, at a 9.8%  loss, unloads my second of four purchases of CMIN.  Looking at this daily chart, it appears possible that the stock will break out to the upside, which would be fine with me.....but I am not counting on it, obviously. I think what I am going to do is sell the third position, probably at a loss, sometime this upcoming week and then let the fourth and final position ride for a few months and see what happens.  
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My hunch is that patience will pay off, as it does 98% of the time for mining stocks in a secular bull market.  However, I had too much of this stuff to take that kind of gamble with all four acquisitions....especially when I am quite certain that other stocks, less manipulated and sold short, are going to do extremely well in the mean time.
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For better or worse I am deciding to take most of my lumps (losses) now and move on.
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This third daily chart is of Cardero Resource Corp (CDY) and reflects my accumulation of more shares at $1.17.  CDY has $1.06 per share in cash and a tangible book value of $1.62 per share.  ROA = 50.3%, ROE = 65.0% and ROI = 61.6%.  Why in the world this stock is priced so low is really a puzzlement to me, but I am a buyer until the market figures out what I already know.
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This fourth daily chart is of Nevsun Resources Ltd (NSU) and reflects my accumulation of more shares at $4.94.  The MFI indicator has just broken its trend line and TSI looks very close to a bullish resolution as well.  Price has made a nice saucer consolidation and looks ready for rocket launch.  
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The mining index ($HUI) tested a major breakout (520) yesterday and when it gets through that price level I expect we are going to see mining stocks scream higher as new hot money enters the sector.  There will no longer be any overhead resistance to price movement for all mining stocks.
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This fifth daily chart is of Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI) and reflects my accumulation of more shares at $0.15.  In taking this trade I was counting on a bounce off the 200 dma and fortunately, it was an idea that worked.
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As you can observe from the chart, each time SFMI has bounced off the 200 dma it has produced a trade gain worth as much as 40-50%, and quickly.  So far this purchase is worth 13.3% in a single day and I hope to hang on for a larger gain in the week to come.
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This sixth daily chart is of Silver America Inc (SILA) and reflects my accumulation of additional shares at $0.80.  This stock appears to be getting ready for some upside as the TSI and MFI are both bullishly breaking their trend lines and the TSI has attained a +0.11 reading.  There was a lot of heavy volume buying last month that pushed price up to and then beyond $1.00.  Since then we have seen reduced selling volume which appears to be waning.  I imagine on a breakout of $HUI 520, SILA will see increased buying volume and could make a strong move for several days, if not longer.....hopefully surpassing the $1.00 price.
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Finally, this seventh daily chart is of Santa Fe Gold Corp (SFEG) and is a new position for me at $1.09.  This stock has spent a good deal of time consolidating at about 90 cents, finally made an initial move to $1.20 and I am buying it on a pull back and consolidation of that move.  The TSI has turned up above zero, there was heavy buying volume on its initial surge and I think SFEG is now about ready to make its next move.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.

2 comments:

  1. John,

    It's weekend again. Last weekend, you posted an analysis about gold, stock and usd etc. While this week gold is still strong, I am wondering how will the Dow/Nasdaq/S&P will go. Will a correction still be due as you said last week? In case Dow goes down, will mine stocks still go up?

    I also remember last yours bullish investor pencentage was 41+, I went to the link and read 43+ for this week. Does that mean we are nearer to a correctdion?

    Thanks,
    Bingjie

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  2. Bingjie -- you are one observant reader. I am very impressed. And if I said all that stuff, well, I'm glad I did because that's how I see it now as well.

    Yes, sentiment has kind of reached a level that is going to put a cap on the stock market, and relatively soon. The other thing is that the horrific fall in the US Dollar is getting so stretched that it is due a snap back counter rally, and relatively soon. My hunch is that by the end of this upcoming week the landscape for both the US Dollar and the stock market will reverse the current course.

    The question about the miners is a bit trickier to state with as much certainty. The miners do not follow the stock market necessarily. However, they do follow gold. So the question then becomes, will gold go into correction mode when the dollar begins a counter rally?

    I don't know. For the past two daily cycles - throughout the current weekly cycle - gold has moved inversely to the dollar. If would make 'sense' to think that when the dollar hits the pavement and reverses upward, gold will likewise reverse and head downwards towards $1300.

    I'll tell you this: gold has a mind of its own. It cannot be so easily understood in relation to anything - including the dollar and the stock market. And this: gold will do whatever it takes to keep as many people off it's shoulders ie. gold does not give people free rides by being easily gamed.

    What to do? Well, be suspicious of a gold correction when the dollar bottoms and the stock market tops. BUT, don't count on it. Use the TSI to spot SELL signals.

    ReplyDelete