I decided to buy Direxion's Gold Miner Bear 3X ETF at $35.19. I am playing this on the hunch that this second 4 hour cycle is going to be left translated (already topped at $1641.4) and thus the entire daily cycle will be left translated, as well. This is consistent with my concern that gold may not have concluded its D-wave correction. However, as we are on the fourth daily cycle (if December 29th was not the weekly (intermediate) cycle low), gold is running out of time to fall from the sky - as best I can tell, anyway.
If gold is now able to best the last daily cycle high of $1643.7 it has an excellent chance of making a run to the downward line of resistance drawn from the September 2011 All-Time high through the mid-November and early December highs. That location comes it at around $1695.
My TSI Trading Record has been updated.
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Great call!
ReplyDeleteDo you have the 40 bar 4 hr low as occurring on Jan 8 on the 9pm bar, with a low of 1605.7? That would have us on bar 10 on the new cycle.
Or, you could put the low on the bar that occurred on 1/5 with a low of 1597.7, which would have on bar 20 of the new cycle.
gold miner:I think U are right on the money again John.I sold my NUGT which i bought yesterday and took 300 sh of DUST again today.I feel the year of the DRAGON has already began.GOOD LUCK TO EVERYBODY.THE WINNER TAKES IT ALL if there will be some left by the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteGreg - I have us currently on bar 11 of the second four hour cycle of this daily cycle begun December 29.
ReplyDeleteIf gold can make it up through $1645 it could be a whole new ballgame and I would almost certainly sell my DUST position at a loss.
It's impossible to be right all the time and we have to take it a step at a time.
Also, silver is looking incredibly strong and if it gets up through about $30.50 it could run to near $38 very quickly. $29.85 at the moment.
Gold hit 1648 during the overnight trading. However, silver did not make a new high. Have you closed the trade yet?
ReplyDeleteWhat led you to the conclusion that the current 4 hr cycle will be left translated?
John, I'm looking for a symbol I can enter in my streamer quotes to watch real time ticks on gold and silver. Can you suggest any? Thanks and appreciate your work and effort you put into your blog.
ReplyDeleteGreg - yes, i sold near the open as i could not babysit the trade and teach my class. But fwiw, DUST is close to giving a real nice BUY signal on the TSI (7,4) 4 hour chart. So I may jump back in.
ReplyDeleteI reasoning, at the time, to anticipate a left translated cycle, was that if this second 4 hour cycle is left translated then odds would be good that the entire daily cycle would turn out to be both left translated and failed - leading to new lows for gold.
My reasoning was OK, but at this time I do not think that is how this will play out. ie I have changed my mind.
ANON - I don not know what software/platform you have available during the off hours, but if ThinkorSwim, Gold is /GC and Silver is /SI.