Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Sold AGQ - $47.50 Sold NUGT - $21.55 Gold Update

Well, call me paranoid about this gold rally if you wish, but I have banked modest gains on both of my trading positions and 2012 is off to a fine start!

I continue to believe the likelihood of gold making a final plunge towards $1400 is high so I am satisfied to sit in cash as I watch things develop.

This first chart is of Proshares Ultra Silver 2X ETF (AGQ) which I sold for $47.50. This is a 15 minute chart which is usually not the best time frame for making decisions about trends (to say the least). But I think I got most of the easy money off the table and that is all I really care about.

This second chart is my sale of Direxion Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) at $21.55. This chart uses the 30 minute time frame. The chart shows us that in just 2.5 trading sessions price has travelled from a low of $17.09 to a high of $21.83. That amounts to a nearly 28% move from low to high. It seems to me the old addage "what goes up must come down" .  We shall see if this time is the exception (but not with my money - lol).

This third chart is a quick look the one hour chart of the gold futures (/GC). Again, nothing goes straight up forever.

Fourth up is a four hour chart with the gold futures cycles included. We are currently on bar 15 of what seems to be a 40ish bar cycle. And, we are beginning a new daily cycle as well.

In the past 9 months, all of the first four hour cycles nested within the daily cycles were right translated, except one. So odds favor this current rally will not top until tomorrow or later. 

And finally, this beautiful chart of Gold Futures was sent to me earlier today by the inventor of a new momentum indicator for the Think or Swim platform called the TrendXplorer, by JW of  http://indexswingtrader.blogspot.com. I'm curious to learn more about the signals it renders and think the use of color is exceptionally effective.

My TSI Trading Record has been updated.


  1. It was the right thing to do to sell your positions and move back to cash. If GDX or GLD move even higher today I would consider a short.

  2. BM - the time to make the most of your idea would have been to buy DUST yesterday afternoon. Unfortunately, I did not think of that until I went to bed last night - lol. It's funny how dreaming of making money sometimes makes clearer the opportunities, you know? Anyway, I'll be looking for something to work with and probably take that trade - soon.

  3. amazing how many failed breakouts day after day - the stock breaks out,then reverses the next day - even when broader mkt action o.k.
    I shorted on the open today GOOG,AMZN and RIMM