I set a limit order to buy Direxion Gold Miner Bear 3X ETF (DUST) and headed off to work. OK - that was a mistake. My order was hit and price continued to fall. So I bought more. lol
This is a four hour chart of DUST.
My TSI Trading Record has been updated.
Ah heck - I decided to go ahead and make a proper one hour chart of DUST.
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just sold DUST @ 38.51
ReplyDeleteI am buying back DUST below 36.81
ReplyDeletejust bought DUST again @ 36.20
ReplyDeletepowerful reversal ......
ReplyDeleteto hedge I sold short the Jan 40.02 call @ 1.20
hi John, can u please suggest on ERY....
ReplyDeleteERY - has something of a positive divergence on the 4 hour chart. this looks like the kind of setup that if one is patient and everything falls in place, it could make a lot of money in a hurry. but it is not an immediate buy, in my opinion, unless you like to gamble. my guess is that when the S&P finally begins to crumble this will take off like a rocket.
ReplyDeleteWe are going to get a profit taking event soon in the stock market. How assets react during that process will tell us if gold did in fact find its D-wave bottom.
ReplyDeleteI will keep my DUST long position with a small hedge but I have to respect the fact that GLD still can squeeze to 163/64 without changing my original argument of a final washout towards $1440
keep in mind that if the market pushes higher today (which I think it will) and then rolls over and takes gold with it, its possible we see gold push above the 200dma and the $1644 high (which would make the last DC 27 days having bottomed on 12/29), and then reverse into a left translated cycle that could give us another vicious leg down as stocks move into a DCL. Its obvious that gold is ignoring the dollar , but its not ignoring stocks.
ReplyDeleteAnother crowded trade : long $ - short Euro .....Sentiment remains quite high for the dollar, and almost no one believes the buck weaken here given the environment in Europe. I believe that once the buck rolls over, the move lower may be violent... perhaps sparked by a news event... trapping people on the wrong side of the trade. The conditions are ripe for a trend change. The market just needs a catalyst
ReplyDeleteI enjoy your site - at least what I can read! Your site width appears to be wider than my screen, but there is no slide bar at the bottom of the page. So that I'm unable to see anything that extends to the right (graphics or text). Perhaps this is an issue restricted to me, but if not, could anyone suggest a 'solution.'
ReplyDeleteMany thanks and again, I much appreciate your insights.
I was looking at ERY too and it is very tempting to buy a few here just to have a foot in the door... it traded as high as $28 last october but it could be dead money for a while.
ReplyDeleteEverybody knows about iran and the potential there to take that away and there really isn't a bullish case to be made for oil or most energy commodities this year but headline risk is there and thats what oil spikes usually are about.... my 2012 range is $125 - $75. One interesting thing I like to point out is the usually very close correlation between the oil service etf and the price of crude oil except for the last 2 month you can see there has been a pretty sizable divergence as many of the oil service names have actually been falling. Currently oil is moving on speculation because of the threat of the closing of the strait of hormuz and other factors, so therefore companies are not going to drill more because obviously this is an aberration, except this aberration could last for a lot longer than many people think, if we really have any physical blockade in the strait of hormuz, $125+ oil would be a reality in a matter of days or hours. Very low probability that will happen, but the fear factor will always, always move oil prices .
Anon - thanks for you comment about the screen width issue. Rather than place a chart picture within the text and allow for one to click on it to ENLARGE (if desired), I have simply put the picture within the text at its original size. And I wondered if this may cause a problem for some readers which, of course, is not my intention.
ReplyDeleteI will look at going back to my previous method of inserting the chart pictures and that will likely help this issue. Alternatively, you could adjust the screen resolution of your screen and tell me if that helps on your end.
I bought some ERY @ 10.40 to have a foot in the door - might be good only for a trade to above 11.20 - we will see
ReplyDeleteTSI (13,7) Clarification ? When I view the TSI time periods, 7 is the short and 13 is the long period.
ReplyDeleteIn the Charts, TSI the 7 is first and 13 is second.
Verify...... 7 (small #) is the short period and 13 (larger #) is longer period.
Anon - the TSI calculates differences in two moving averages over time. The TSI is told to use the moving averages of 13 and 7. It could as well be told to use the moving averages of 7 and 13, as the outcome will be the same. The TSI does not know what the words 'long' and 'short' even mean. It only crunches numbers. Try telling the TSI that 7 is the long and 13 is the short.....then you will see what I mean.
ReplyDelete