Bought CGR @ $1.46 - CDY Update

First a brief update on Cardero Resources (CDY). I introduced this stock to readers on December 26 when it was trading for 95 cents. Though I did not purchase CDY (I set a limit price that was never hit) I am very pleased that many readers did buy the stock, as it closed today at $1.53. This daily chart updates the stock's subsequent performance and highlights what can happen when the overhead resistance of the 50 dma and 200 dma are overcome.

Click on any chart to ENLARGE

Today I purchased Claude Resources (CGR) for $1.46 per share. Having missed the strong run of CDY I decided to just get on board Claude Resources and be patient. Let's begin with a look at the weekly chart.

I've looked over a couple hundred miner charts to find this one. I was impressed with the cup with handle pattern and the recent/current retest of the handle. In a really ideal environment, such as I think is now developing in the mining stocks, the retest that pulled price down from $3.00 to nearly $1.00 in the space of a single year could act like a sling shot - energizing upward price movement when selling pressure is finally exhausted. 


This chart of daily price movement shows that CGR currently has some of the same challenges as CDY had when I brought it to your attention. That is, overhead 50 dma and 200 dma resistance.

The stock has made it up through an initial price trend line of resistance just this week, but there are a couple others waiting overhead. The True Strength Index (TSI) indicator shows that sometime before the end of February we should have a break out of significance, up or down. Should price be able to navigate through the next 50 cents of landmines - up past $1.90 - there will be little if any resistance from there on, whatsoever.


If we take a look at a closer view of the daily chart we can see that CGR has some positives going for it at the moment. Two BUY signals have been given by the TSI - a trend line break and a ZERO crossover. Additionally a stealth positive divergence has been building for a number of weeks as price seems to be consolidating and at last dissipating the last of the downward momentum of the past year. Today we had our first test of the 50 dma and it's not surprising to see it fail on the first try. But I am quite sure there will be more attempts.

You may have noticed the earnings projections for Claude Resources that I put on a couple of the earlier charts. I found it nearly impossible to find another stock with more explosive projections: 2010 2 cents, 2011E 10 cents, 2012E 21 cents and 2013E 30 cents.


CGR has a smallish number of shares outstanding, with 164M. It is a Canadian company with all of it's mining operation in Canada. And best of all, for me anyway, is that it is currently priced at just 1.4X book value. That's cheap. There are a several other AMEX miners that trade with a lower price to book value ratio - CDY, KGC, AUMN, GSS, GBG, BRD - but the estimated earnings of these did not impress me as favorably as CGR.


In closing, here are a couple tidbits from my study. The first is from The Motley Fool (11-17-2011) and provides an overview of Claude's business/operation. The second tidbit shows that despite the stock's continual slide over the past six months, large institutional buyers have continued to load up on CGR.

Go get 'em!