I made no purchases or sales today, Friday, but am just getting around to posting my three purchases yesterday, which included SFMI, CDY and AGQ.
This first 60 minute chart is of Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI) which I purchased yesterday at $0.17. SFMI traded as low as 15 cents earlier this morning, but near the close of the week is sitting at $0.175 and reached 18 cents earlier this last hour of trading.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
This second 60 minute chart is of Cardero Resource Corp (CDY) for which I accumulated additional shares yesterday at $1.18. At this moment CDY is trading at $1.19 after trading as low as $1.15 earlier this morning.
My third and final purchase yesterday was of Proshares UltraSilver (AGQ) at $90.90. AGQ is currently trading at $94.15, up 6.20% for the day.
This is a current picture of silver on a 10 minute chart. Sure looks like a cup and handle pattern to me.
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My TSI Trading record has been updated.
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I am wondering about your figures for the "Cumulative gain/loss so far this week" and your "Cumulative %" column in your TSI Trading Record.
ReplyDeleteBoth of these involve the addition of percentages which is a tricky proposition. I believe that a proper comparison would involve weighted averages. Here are my figures for GDXJ for you to compare.
GDXJ
__________________Gain/loss
Date____Close____from 10/1 close
10/1____34.19
10/4____33.34___-2.49%
10/5____34.66___ 1.37%
10/6____35.41___ 3.57%
10/7____35.35___ 3.39%
10/8____35.09___ 2.63%
If you would have traded every day at these prices...
10/4 buy @ 34.19 and sell @33.34 = -0.85 or -2.49%.
10/5 buy @33.34 and sell @34.66 = 1.32 or 3.96%.
10/6 buy @34.66 and sell@35.41 = 0.75 or 2.16%.
10/7 buy @35.41 and sell@35.35 = -0.06 or -0.17%.
10/8 buy @35.35 and sell@35.09 = -0.26 or -0.74%.
Net thru Thursday = -0.85+1.32+0.75-0.06 = 1.16 which is a gain of 3.39% from 10/1.
Net thru Friday = 0.90 which is a gain of 2.63% from 10/1.
Adding up the dollar amounts of change thru Thursday gives 1.16 which is 3.39% gain.
Adding up the percentages gives us 3.46% gain.
Of course this difference between 3.39% and 3.46% is small but would become significantly larger for either greater volatility or over a longer time period. In other words, I think that averaging percentages is not statistically acceptable. I wonder what happens if we google "adding percents".
Loren
John,
ReplyDeleteI am interested and curious in your buying of AGQ. based on your purchasing price, you must have bought it in the early morning, maybe within the first 30 minutes. Your picture of cup or handle only forms at the end of the day. So at the moment of your purchasing, what was the buying indicator? I looked at the TSI daily chart (4,7), it clearly shows an down break on both 7th and 8th. I checked the 10 minutes tsi chart, at the moment you purchased, the tsi was going up, however it was continuously under a resistence line, so where is the indicator exactly at that moment?
Regards,
bj
Lauren, thank you for your excellent math and for the time you have given to provide this data. Frankly, however this little project turned out was not going to change an ounce of what I do or believe.
ReplyDeleteBJ - frankly, I do not always use the TSI to make decisions. Sometimes I just make decisions based on a larger concept...as in the case of AGQ. My only regret is that I did not sell before the close on Friday.
So would you explain what exactly triggered you to buy AGQ at that moment and what is the reason that you regret you did not sell it before the Friday close? I believe that would help us improve our skills a lot. Thans a lot!
ReplyDeleteI am curious to see the final number for the week as in total gain/loss percentage since Monday. Granted it was a blah week but it's still interesting to compare an index to stock picking
ReplyDeleteP.S. It's usually more fun to be an active participant than someone along for the ride.