Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Edging Towards the Door

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Let's look at three charts pre-market Tuesday.  GLD, HUI and SPX.
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GLD, to be honest, has got me nervous.  The chart has made a rising wedge pattern that usually does not turn out well for the bulls.  Our happy trampoline may develop a tear in the flooring and it could prove hazardous to one's portfolio to overstay their welcome.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
                                                                    
Here is the current hourly chart of the miners index - HUI.   The negative divergence yesterday played out as it should have.  I admit to being excited (there is a word that means 'emotional' as opposed to 'technically detached') that the HUI was attempting a very important breakout.  Shaking my head that I still do not 'get it' that the TSI is more accurate than I am.  
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Anyway, the current picture suggests the next move will be down for the miners.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
                                                       
Here is the SP-500, pre-market.  OK, not going to get 'emotional' and just going to tell myself what this chart says 'technically detached' - though my gut twists with the anxiety of seeing the futures down so sharply before the open.
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The TSI says this negative gap opening will not hold.  Price will make a lower low and the TSI will not even come close to making a lower low.  This setup is basically the exact same and opposite direction of another we saw a couple weeks ago.  I have identified this previous example on the chart as well.
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Well, let's all see if this gap down opening should have been aggressively bought, not joined.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE         

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