I just wanted to give readers a quick update on the 2 hour pre-market activities of the dollar, stock market and gold with this post. You, of course, should decide for yourselves what will happen next. I have my coin out and ready to flip it. Call it in the air?
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The is the US Dollar on a 4 hour chart. I have been skeptical about this run-up in the dollar and, well, though my daily timing was not correct, I still do not believe it will last. But flip a coin because though death appears certain, there is an escape route still open with a strong push to higher price.
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
This is the SP-500 on a 30 minute chart. This is a good example of what I sometimes see and I call it the 'stealth' setup. On the surface it appears that price is going nowhere but under the surface momentum is quietly turning from negative to positive. The ZERO crossover, of course, is where momentum turns positive but we are not there yet.
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Flip a coin. When momentum reaches ZERO will price break through or will momentum then turn negative and continue the correction?
This is a Gold on a 1 hour chart, 2 hours pre-market. Despite the sharp rally yesterday and some follow through overnight, momentum is still in BEAR country (below ZERO).
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Honestly, I do not know what to make of very short term gold at this moment. That commodity has a mind of its own. The bull does a great job of keeping as many riders off his back as possible by maneuvers such as yesterday. Flip another coin, and you call it.
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For myself, I believe the bottom is in, or virtually in, for both the stock market and gold. And I am going to trade with that as my guiding belief.
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John, another "in the face" PM market. I'm just a so-so technician but something is going on here in this admittedly controlled market.
ReplyDeletePM stocks were strong also. Just a hunch but this appears to be a Maginot Line. If the PMs march thru this, watch out.
This certainly is a Maginot Line for gold as I do not think we will see $1200 gold again for years and years and years and years.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the short interest that has attempted to suppress the price of gold is really losing control of the ball at the moment and if there really is manipulation, well, all it does is make gold go up even faster and higher.
I have read that of these contracts out there, there is only enough gold bullion to back 5% of these contracts for delivery. That means that 95% of these leveraged contracts - to "deliver" gold - are just empty pieces of paper. Increasingly, parties are going to want their contracts settled with bullion, not more paper (think US Dollar).
China recently announced that its Central Bank will now loan money not only to its national companies who want to mine precious metals, but also to any international company that will mine precious metals.
Why?
Well, because China will open its big bank vault and loan out their US Dollars that they are stuck with, and return demand repayment in bullion. This is a very clever way for them to avoid contributing to the devaluation of the dollar - by dumping them in the open market - while getting rid of as many of them as they can.
hi,
ReplyDeleteGold is good but silver is better!