Sunday, August 8, 2010

Gold's ABCD Patterns from 2002 - 2010

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I believe that the secular gold bull market to date has progressed via a series of ABCD patterns. Currently, we are in the midst of the 7th such ABCD pattern since 2002, and in the C wave specifically.
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I've been working on this chart for quite a many moons, had it repeatedly corrected by an expert for error, and believe today is the day I get to roll it out and post it to my website.
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Gold's ABCD pattern enjoys a few rules and as best as I understand them, here are the basic ones in brief:
1.  A wave, while explosive, does not make a higher high than the C wave that preceded it
2.  B wave is a corrective phase and does not make a lower low that the A wave.
3.  C wave is extremely powerful, by far the longest wave in terms of duration, and characteristically ends up rising in parabolic fashion right near its end
4.  D wave is viciously corrective and can wipe out half or even most of the C wave move.
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I made a single chart for each ABCD pattern, then vertically pasted the charts into one large chart.  I also attempted to make some Fibonacci type observations, and wrote them on each chart.
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Our current C wave situation is as follows.  The wave began 16 months ago at $860.  Most experts believe our current C wave has not concluded yet because we have not had the parabolic rise that characterizes its finish.  I personally believe that the parabola is yet to come.  
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This suggests we may be only 38.2% to 50% of the way to the top.  
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No C wave in history has topped before December and 5 of 6 topped in the spring.  There is a lot of time left on the shot clock for this C wave.  
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Projections for a price at this C wave top are all over the map, understandably, but it is generally believed to be in the range of $1500 and $1700.  Gold closed last Friday at $1205.
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The miners index HUI is expected to reach $800 by the top of the C wave.  The $HUI closed at $460 this past Friday.  The upcoming 6-9 or so months should be incredibly profitable for those who own mining stocks (and relatively disastrous for those who continue to hold miners during the D wave that will follow). 
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE


I am really disappointed with the size the chart shows up on the website.  Way too small.
Send me an email.  I will attach the REAL chart and resend to you.  tsiTrader@gmail.com



2 comments:

  1. Hi John,

    When a reader clicks on the chart and, once open, clicks on it again (where your cursor looks like a small magnifying glass), the image is sufficiently readable. Viewers can further enlarge by clicking on 'view' on their browser and scrolling down to the 'zoom' function and selecting a '150%' option. Though not perfectly crisp when expanded further, it helps.

    Best,
    Neil

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Neil. I did not know the latter re: browser. Great contribution and appreciated.

    ReplyDelete