Exciting day today! Gold put in the daily cycle low yesterday and accomplished a swing first thing this morning. Today was Day 1 of a fresh new daily cycle for gold. These tend to run in length from about 20-25 days. Without a doubt in my mind this daily cycle will take gold to new ALL-TIME HIGHS.
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This daily chart is of DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ). This short term trade made sense on the notion that gold would fill in the gaps below $1205 and retest the monumental $1200 price, but it was not to be. Just to keep everybody off balance gold zipped down to $1210 yesterday and zipped right back up to $1230. That, my friends, was the extent of the correction. Anyway, I took a 2.3% loss and did a lot of buying to make myself feel better :)
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Click on the charts to ENLARGE
This second daily chart is of Cardero Resource Corp (CDY), which I bought more shares of at $1.02. Believing as strongly as I do that the bottom is in for gold, and also, or nearly also for the stock market, I could not resist buying even more of this stuff. The wedge I have drawn on the chart will be broken soon and knowing that this stock sells for .6X Book Value gives me confidence to think the break will be to the upside.
The third chart is a 4 Hour Chart of Anooraq Resources Corp (ANO) and my accumulation of additional shares at $0.85. I've been watching the price of platinum lately and it seems to be in bull mode along with gold, running from $1485 to $1540 today. ANO is a platinum miner and while it did not catch fire with the underlying metal today, I have no doubt that it will, and possibly with a vengeance.
Finally, I never thought I would do this, but I bought another slug of Direxion 3X Small Cap Bull Shares (TNA). This 2 Hour Chart locates my decision point at $32.70 to BUY. We had both TSI and MFI trendline breakouts, two positive divergences in place between the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator and price movement, and nearly a positive ZERO crossover. Kinda difficult to lose with this kind of setup, in my book.
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The stock market daily cycle is in the range of 40 trading days. Today was Day 38 and if not the bottom of the cycle, well, it's just a matter of time now. My expectation is that TNA will, at the minimum, close the open gap at $41.32 during this cycle and probably go much higher than that.
Finally, here is an inspirational bit of information about the seasonality of gold . Of the 12 months of the year, the one with the strongest returns for gold is, by far, September. Second and third place belong to December and January, fourth is May.
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If you are going to invested in mining stocks, NOW is the time to load up (in my opinion). I have!
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My TSI trading record has been updated.
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Dear John:
ReplyDeleteToday will be gold option expiration date and I was wondering if you have any idea where I can locate the put / call price range for gold bullion?
Thanks in advance.
I'm not exactly sure what you are asking, but these links should get you where you specifically want to go: (use GLD as the stock ticker to input)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/stock_quotes.aspx
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/indicators/open_interest_configuration.aspx?TICKER=gld
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/indicators/putcall_open_interest_ratio.aspx?TICKER=gld
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/indicators/equity_volpcratio.aspx
thanks for your reply, John...I meant comex gold price put / call price range instead of GLD... as Harvey put in his website
ReplyDelete" The median price in options for silver is around 18.00 and the median price for gold is around 1210. so we are well above those levels"
I wonder if you have any idea where I can locate the whole price range of put/ call?
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2010/08/august-252010-commentary.html
I am fascinated by the daily cycles.How are they constructed.Are the first 20 days up and the next 20 days down.How long do they last.Based on the daily cycles,what exact day do you see gold and the stock market peaking in their respective current daily cycles.Thank you for your "ministry"!
ReplyDeleteAnon:
ReplyDeleteIf only it were that easy.
Briefly, cycles are measured from low to low. Let's say one cycle begins with gold at $1200. 15 days later gold peaks at $1250 and 5 days later gold bottoms at $1230.
That would have been a 20 day cycle with a peak to the right of dead center (10 days) and called a right translated daily cycle.
Now the next cycle begins at $1230 and gold peaks at $1260 in 7 days. 15 days later gold bottoms at $1240. That would have been a 22 day cycle that topped before the midpoint (day 11) and called a left translated daily cycle.
The 20 day cycle is not absolute. It could be a 28 day cycle or 17 days. If it were absolute that sure would make it easy, wouldn't it?
Right translated cycles are generally bullish, left are bearish. In bull markets, such as gold is in, the daily cycles are usually right translated except for the final daily cycle going into the weekly cycle low.
A weekly cycle has several daily cycles nested within it and for gold is in the range of 22 weeks. July 28 was the conclusion of a daily cycle and a weekly cycle.
When a weekly cycle begins anew, the move is usually very powerful - and this is certainly what we have seen of the current weekly cycle so far.
I could go on and on, but this probably more than you wanted to know.....
Thank you for your question.