Sunday, August 15, 2010

Gold Rally Getting Tired, But Not Over

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This daily chart is the SPDR ETF for gold, (GLD).  First off, you will notice my obsession with tinkering with indicators.  
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Here I am using:
1.  Bollinger Bands (20,1.8)
2.  20 dma dashed line to plot the Bollinger Band midpoint
3.  50 and 200 dma of GLD
4.  True Strength Index (TSI) indicator set to (7,4) with the ZERO crossover line identified
5.  TSI indicator set to (13,7) with its 3 and 5 dma added
6.  Stochastic Momentum Indicator (SMI) set to (25, 13, 3) with its 5 dma added
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I have noted on the chart in small print the apparent significance each indicator is telling us about the future price direction of gold.  In general, they all say the same thing which is that gold would appear to have a few, maybe several days left on the shot clock for this rally (begun July 28) - then after gold makes a final peak for this daily cycle it should retreat in price during the latter part of August.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE

5 comments:

  1. Do you see this cycle as the final high for gold this year.

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  2. I hope your question was intended to bring an ounce of humor to my day. If so, you succeeded and thank you.

    If you are not sure what I just said, the answer is emphatically NO.

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  3. What is your target on GDX short term? Thanks.

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  4. Fung - GDX is sporting a negative divergence on the daily TSI. Since you asked, I'll tell you that that would be enough for me to decide to sell today. But that is just me. Gold and GDX could continue higer a bit for now, but in my mind it is a coin flip and I prefer to take my money when they give it to me than play coin flips - when I have this choice, that is. I hope my answer helps you Fung.

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