Monday, July 5, 2010

Ever Heard of the Bollinger Band Crash Trade?

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Since I discussed Tick and Trin, I may as well tell you about the Bollinger Band crash trade.
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The Bollinger Bands are an indicator you can apply to price.  It creates two lines, one above and the other below price.  You can adjust the indicator with different parameters but the standard setting is 20,2.
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The way the crash trade works is that in a bull market you buy when price pierces through the lower band.  Essentially what is going on is as follows.  The Bollinger Band is measuring 2 standard deviations of price volatility over the past 20 days (if using a daily chart).  As 2 standard deviations should represent something like 95% of all probable price behavior, a price that pierces the band is an extreme from what is "normal" for the past 20 days.  And, as it is an extreme, it is not likely to stay extreme - because price will move back in the direction of where it should "normally" be found.
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This is a four month daily chart of Hecla Mining (HL).  Each time price reached the lower band, it corrected the extreme by changing direction and going up.
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Looks too easy, huh?  Does it work all the time?  Nope.  Does anything?  Nope.  But this trade definitely has higher odds of working than most.
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By the way, with Friday's close we have a Bollinger Band crash trade setup on both the SP-500 and GLD.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE

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