Saturday, July 10, 2010

SP-500, GLD, GRS, MDW and PAL

*
This post will bring us up to date on where we are with the SP-500 and GLD for Monday's opening bell, as well as offer  three miners that could be excellent prospects for one's portfolio - GRS, MDW and PAL.
*
This first chart is the SP-500 60 minute.  While the True Strength Indes (TSI) has reached a critically high level, I do not believe that price has yet peaked.
*
Click on the chart to ENLARGE
*
This is a 60 minute chart of GLD.  A couple of notable items are a gap lower that needs to be filled and a TSI that has about hit its head on the ceiling.  When will GLD likely fill that gap?  Within a couple days.  How far down we go is anyone's guess.
*
Click on the chart to ENLARGE






*
This is Gammon Lake Resources (GRS), daily chart.  Not quite a month ago the company announced it was closing a mine due to a bitter labor dispute.  The stock plummeted on the news.  Then we had these couple of really tough weeks with the stock market getting trashed.  GRS dropped some more.
*
I do not own GRS.  What I like about it is that it seems undervalued and my hunch is that it will appreciate faster than most when gold starts taking off.  From current $5.42 back to 'pre-bad news' $7.50 would be a kewl 40% gain.  Not too shabby.
*
Click on the chart to ENLARGE
*
This is Midway Gold Corp (MDW) on a daily chart.  Like GRS, MDW had an 'issue' days before the recent stock market massacre began.  It completed a 9M share dilution at C$0.60 and then started to sell off  when it could not hold onto $.60  (MDW now has 80M shares). Then the stock market correction kicked in and down it went even faster......ending up in the mid $0.40 range.
*
MDW just loses money - between 4 and 5 cents per share per year.  It expects to begin gold production in 2013.  So far, I am not impressed.  And, I do not own MDW.
*
But then I find out MDW sells at a scant 83% of book value.  Hey, try to find a gold miner that sells below book value.  It's not easy.  Also, it has NO DEBT.  
*
Hummmmm.....  for starters, a bigger company could acquire MDW, get the assets with no debt attached for a real nice price.  Anyway, a buy here at 45 cents that gets back to 60 cents would be a sweet 33% gain.
*
Click on the chart to ENLARGE
*
If you are still reading, I hope you feel rewarded when you see this one, because it is my favorite discovery this morning.
*
This is North American Palladium (PAL) on a daily chart.  PAL has not one or two, but three BUY signals all about to trip the wire.  
*
Is this a guaranteed money-maker?  Nope.  My crystal ball cannot see the future and it is entirely possible something unexpected will happen and this stock will plummet. Possible?  Yes.  Probable? No.
*
Probabilities are how I think of trading.  Never certainties.  I use the True Strength Index and other stuff to try to give myself a bit of an edge - attempting to assess the probability that a trade will or will not work. 
*
Having put PAL in the proper context of considering probabilities, I think this looks like a potentially great trade.  If price gets back to the previous high of $5.20, this is a 50% gainer.
*
Click on the chart to ENLARGE

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for the well thought out analysis of the s&p etc
    I am trying to duplicate your work, but having difficulty getting the tsi and a moving ave (I'm guessing ema) on the same chart with think or swim. Any suggestions?
    john

    ReplyDelete
  2. FreeStockCharts and Think or Swim are both TD Ameritrade products or related somehow. So I would think if you can get the moving average to work on the FreeStockCharts TSI, you would do it the same way on the Think or Swim software.

    To put a moving average on the TSI at FreeStockCharts, in the panel that has the TSI display on the upper left, it says 'True Strength Index'. Just click on those words and then a pop up asks you what you want to do. Click on 'Moving Average' and you should be off and running.

    I hope this helps. If not, send me a screen shot of Sink or Swim and I will tell you if I have a hunch or two.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well I like PAL too. TSI is it then? No fundamental story line as with the other two miners named?

    As far as Midway goes I would compare to Metanor in the same pps category and a BDF well behind them for now. Metanor with it all infrastructure in place and pouring dore bars. Now, not when the 40% correction in gold hits. The smell of death around MEAOF mostly aired out now!

    I see you have included the (G)reat (B)ag of (G)arbage in your quotes list. It is just amazing that I got out of that one with a $20 gain. Then there was Coral Gold and that has just got hammered since I sold it for a 14% profit in 3 weeks when gold recently peaked at $1268.

    Amazing not to lose money in garbage like those two but I am learning anyway to steer clear of some of these exploration companies especially the ones with weak or no royalty incomes from discoveries they have sold.

    No quote on your list for KGI? Very similar "story line". to both PAL and to a lesser extent Metanor. I think you can capitalize on disruptions to production or start ups of previously mothballed mining resources. This is especially true if the company has done drilling and proved decent g/ton ore resources that can be gotten out and milled with some BDF cash infusion capital to facilitate the expansion of production.

    I am attemting to post anonymously as you do not provide any explanation of what a URL is. I have of course heard of this but quite seriously I am an investor not a technophile.

    ReplyDelete