Thursday, July 22, 2010

US Dollar and Sentiment

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I'm going to switch gears a bit this morning, show you a new True Strength Index (TSI) setting and its best application, and apply it to the US Dollar, as well provide a brief look at sentiment and where it finds itself with respect to the stock market.
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This first chart is the daily UUP, which is an ETF for the US Dollar.  The TSI setting is (25,13).  This is a great setting for taking the longer term view of things when not trying to get cute timing daily, or even hourly price moves.  
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The chart makes several points which are as follows:  
1.  TSI readings that persistently stay BELOW ZERO are likened to BEAR markets.
2.  TSI readings that persistently stay ABOVE ZERO are likened to BULL markets.
3.  The US DOLLAR has clearly entered the likeness of a BEAR market.
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As an aside, the stock market got spooked when Uncle Ben reminded us yesterday afternoon how bad things are - and that certainly threw a curve ball at the article I had just written.  But looking at how the US Dollar has fallen precipitously overnight, my hunch is that minds brighter than mine may be thinking that Ben has prepared the American public for his next predictable move - more printing.  
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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Our second chart this morning is a brief study of sentiment.  On the left side of the chart is a column of data from Investor's Intelligence that came out yesterday.  It shows that the % of BEARS has continued to increase, despite the recent rally and now equals the % of Bulls.
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My two thoughts are:
1. The pendulum of sentiment never goes in one direction forever - this swing is 13 weeks and getting long.
2.  As both Bulls and Bears are now equal, the slightest shift of the pendulum will affect both the balance of buyers and sellers, but also the direction of the stock market.
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To be honest, I continue to believe the stock market is going to go higher.  Not for any logical reason other than the dollar is in trouble and the sentiment pendulum swing in the other direction is inevitable.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE

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