Thursday, July 1, 2010

Where Now?

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If today marked the bottom of this vicious down leg we can begin to get a sense of how high we are likely to rebound  on the SP-500 by taking some Fibonacci measurements.
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The open gap created a couple days ago looks like a price target that likely will have its day on a future chart.  
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Also, the US Dollar has taken a precipitous fall today and cut right through its 50 day moving average.  It appears that the US Dollar is going to now continue lower and that will, short term, be bullish for the stock market.
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In my humble opinion, this is a good time to buy and a bad time to sell.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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This is an interesting chart that depicts, in S&P 500 context, the irrational extreme condition that the stock market today finds itself.
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This indicator ($SPXA50) shows the number of S&P 500 stocks that close the day above their individual 50 day moving average.
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At market tops, you would naturally imagine that almost every stock would be its 50 dma.  And at bottoms, just the opposite.
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At yesterday's close, only 27 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks closed above its 50 dma.  The chart says the rest.
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE


                                                          

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